Key figures (as of October 2026)
| People in high acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above), 2025 | 266 million in 47 countries/territories (22.9% of those analysed) |
| People in Catastrophe (Phase 5), 2025 | about 1.4 million in six countries/territories |
| People expected in Catastrophe (Phase 5) during 2026 | about 327,000 |
| Countries with an active risk of Famine (mid-2026) | 3: Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia |
| Sudan: areas at risk of Famine, Oct 2026 – Jan 2027 | 13 |
| Sudan: people projected in Catastrophe, Jun–Sep 2026 | about 200,000 |
How famine is measured
"Famine" is not a figure of speech in humanitarian analysis. It is the top of the five-phase scale that humanitarian agencies use to classify food insecurity. An area is classified in Famine only when three thresholds are crossed together: at least one in five households faces an extreme lack of food, acute malnutrition among children reaches critical levels, and death rates pass a defined line. An area can be judged at risk of Famine when a credible, plausible scenario would push it over those thresholds. Individual households in Phase 5 ("Catastrophe") can exist even where the area as a whole is not in Famine.
The picture in late 2026
2025 was historic for the wrong reasons. In 2025, Famine was confirmed in two places in the same year, in parts of Sudan and of the Gaza Strip. About 1.4 million people were in Catastrophe across six countries and territories. That is more than nine times the level of a decade earlier.
2026 has brought real improvement. Better access and fewer hostilities in parts of Sudan and in Gaza helped cut the number of people expected to face Catastrophe this year to about 327,000. Conditions in Gaza improved after the October 2025 ceasefire, and the area-wide risk of Famine identified there ran only through mid-April 2026. Seventeen countries and territories recorded improvements between 2025 and August 2026.
The gains are narrow, however. Fifteen countries deteriorated over the same period, notably Bangladesh, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria and Somalia. As of mid-2026, three countries still faced an active risk of Famine.
- Sudan remains the largest concern. About 200,000 people were projected in Catastrophe between June and September 2026, and 13 areas are at risk of Famine through January 2027. Severely below-average rains across western Sudan have added drought to displacement. The risk zone now extends to parts of South Darfur, where malnutrition in some displacement camps has already passed the Famine threshold.
- South Sudan had, as of mid-2026, about 73,000 people projected in Catastrophe, with a risk of Famine in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile.
- Somalia was added to the highest-concern list during mid-2026, with a risk of Famine in the Burhakaba district of Bay region.
- Yemen and north-east Nigeria have pockets of Catastrophe without an active Famine risk designation.
Headwinds for 2027
Three forces point to a harder 2027 than the 2026 headline suggests. First, El Niño conditions are disrupting rainfall in several food-insecure regions. Second, higher energy, freight and fertiliser costs are feeding through to food prices. Third, humanitarian funding has fallen, and data coverage has dropped to its lowest in a decade, which makes early warning harder. The next six-monthly global early-warning outlook, covering December 2026 to May 2027, is due in late November 2026.
Scenarios for 2027
The question: will Famine be formally classified in more places in 2027? Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates.
Contained
The risk of Famine persists in Sudan and possibly in South Sudan or Somalia, but formal Famine classification is confined to a single country. Catastrophe numbers stay well below the 2025 peak. This is the base case because the largest drivers, local access and lean-season stress, are concentrated in a few areas already under close watch.
Spread
Drought-driven crop failure in Darfur and Kordofan triggers new displacement. At the same time, funding shortfalls limit the response in the Horn of Africa. Famine is then confirmed in two or more countries during 2027. This would repeat the 2025 pattern and is plausible because malnutrition in some camps is already above the Famine line.
Retreat
Access continues to improve, harvests in calmer areas provide relief, and assistance reaches the worst-hit communities in time. No area is classified in Famine at any point in 2027. The 2026 fall in Catastrophe numbers shows this is achievable, but the margin is thin.
What to watch
- Sudan's lean season (from around May 2027): whether drought displacement pushes South Darfur and North Darfur over the thresholds.
- New country analyses: updated projections for South Sudan and Yemen, which were missing for the second half of 2026.
- The late-November 2026 early-warning outlook: which countries are listed as of "highest concern".
- Humanitarian funding levels: the 2027 appeals and how much of them is funded in the first quarter.
- Rainfall forecasts: the evolution of El Niño and its effect on East African and Sahel seasons.
Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.