Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Armed conflicts involving at least one state, 2025 | 65, the highest since records began in 1946, across 35 countries |
| Of which conflicts between states | 8, double the year before and the highest on record |
| Conflicts classed as wars (1,000+ battle deaths in a year), 2025 | 13, the most since 1992 |
| People killed in organised violence, 2025 | about 244,600 |
| Deaths in deliberate violence against civilians, 2025 | about 76,500, up more than 400%, the highest since 1994 |
| Share of battle deaths from the war in Ukraine, 2025 | about 62% (at least 94,700 deaths) |
| Deaths in fighting between non-state groups, 2025 | about 14,500, the lowest since 2013 |
How conflict is measured
Conflict researchers count an armed conflict when organised fighting over government or territory, with at least one state involved, causes 25 or more battle deaths in a calendar year. A conflict becomes a war at 1,000 battle deaths in a year. Two other forms of organised violence are counted separately: fighting between non-state groups, such as rival armed factions or cartels, and one-sided violence, when an armed group or government deliberately kills unarmed civilians. Annual counts for a given year are published in the middle of the following year, so the figures for 2026 will be known in mid-2027.
The picture in late 2026
More conflicts, and more of them between states. The 65 state-based conflicts recorded in 2025 were the most since 1946. Conflicts between states doubled for the second year running, from two in 2023 to eight in 2025. They included the war between Russia and Ukraine and clashes between India and Pakistan. Researchers increasingly describe a layered picture, in which civil wars draw in outside actors and the line between internal and interstate war blurs.
A deadlier year. About 244,600 people were killed in organised violence in 2025, making it one of the deadliest years since the end of the Cold War. The war in Ukraine remained the deadliest single conflict, with at least 94,700 battle deaths. The sharpest change was in violence against civilians: about 76,500 deaths, the highest since 1994, driven mainly by mass killings in Darfur, Sudan.
Concentration. Violence is increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries that face several overlapping conflicts at once. Myanmar recorded five distinct conflicts in 2025. Nigeria, Mali and Pakistan each faced several concurrent crises. Armed groups across the Sahel expanded their attacks.
Some good news. Fighting between non-state groups fell to its lowest level since 2013. Several of the largest conflicts now have active ceasefire or negotiation tracks.
Ceasefire and peace prospects
- Russia and Ukraine: A temporary, internationally brokered local truce around the town of Oleshky in the Kherson region, agreed for late October to 1 November 2026, held as planned, allowing demining, aid deliveries and voluntary evacuations. A new round of three-way talks is expected in November, focused on security arrangements, the return of captives and children, and a possible energy and maritime ceasefire. No firm date had been set at the time of writing.
- Sudan: An international coordination meeting in Geneva on 21 October 2026 focused on de-escalation, humanitarian access and the protection of civilians. It did not bring the warring parties together or produce a ceasefire, though two small confidence-building steps were launched. Fighting continues to cause heavy civilian losses.
- Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: A peace framework between the government and the main armed movement has produced a ceasefire-monitoring mechanism and a first prisoner release in August 2026. Only two of eight planned protocols have been signed; those on security, state authority, humanitarian access and the return of displaced people remain open.
- Gaza: Conflict deaths fell after the ceasefire of October 2025, and food conditions for civilians improved in 2026. The next phase, including large-scale reconstruction, has not yet started.
Drivers for 2027
1. Diplomacy in the largest wars. A durable ceasefire in Ukraine alone would remove the source of more than half of the world's battle deaths. 2. A weaker multilateral toolkit. Peacekeeping mandates are tighter and better-funded mediation is scarcer than in the 2000s, when international cooperation helped many wars wind down. 3. Fragmentation. Conflicts with many armed groups and outside backers are harder to end and more likely to relapse. 4. Spillover from humanitarian crises. Food insecurity, displacement and funding cuts make fragile ceasefires harder to sustain.
Scenarios: the 2026 conflict count
The question: when the global count of state-based armed conflicts for 2026 is published in mid-2027, will it be lower, about the same, or higher than the record 65 of 2025? Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates.
High plateau: 60 to 69 conflicts
The new ceasefires reduce the intensity of some wars but do not end enough conflicts to change the count much. New or renewed conflicts in other regions broadly offset those that end. This is the base case because the count has risen steadily for more than a decade and conflicts rarely end quickly once begun.
De-escalation: fewer than 60 conflicts
Several active conflicts fall below the threshold of 25 battle deaths as truces hold, including in parts of Africa. This is plausible because more ceasefire tracks are open now than at any point in recent years.
Further rise: 70 or more conflicts
New interstate tensions and the spread of armed groups across the Sahel and South Asia push the count to another record. The weight reflects the doubling of conflicts between states in each of the last two years.
What to watch
- The November 2026 talks on Ukraine: whether the local truce widens into an energy, maritime or general ceasefire.
- Sudan: whether coordination efforts lead to direct talks and a humanitarian truce before the 2027 lean season.
- The Congo peace protocols: progress on the six protocols still under negotiation.
- Gaza: the start of large-scale reconstruction and steady aid deliveries.
- The mid-2027 global conflict count for 2026, which will resolve this study's scenarios.
Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.