The Electric Turn: The World's Electric Car Share in 2027

Key figures (as of October 2026)

A quarter of the market, and rising

Electric cars, counting both battery electric and plug-in hybrid models, have moved from a niche to a mass market in five years. Sales passed 17 million in 2024, more than a fifth of all new cars, and rose by 20% in 2025 to more than 20 million, or 25% of new car sales worldwide. Annual sales have grown by about 3.5 million in each of the last five years. Battery electric models made up 65% of electric car sales in 2025.

The global outlook published in spring 2026 expects 23 million electric cars to be sold in 2026, 28% of all new cars. On the Centre's own calculation, that is a rise of about 3 percentage points on 2025, in line with the gain from 2024 to 2025.

China and Europe set the pace

China remains the largest market by far. Nearly 55% of new cars sold there in 2025 were electric, and in 2026 the electric share of retail passenger car sales has passed 60% every month since April, reaching a record of about 67% in September. Total car sales in China have been lower in 2026, after the purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles was halved from January, but electric models have kept taking a larger share of the market.

Europe saw the strongest growth among major markets in 2025, with sales up by more than 30% to 28% of new cars, and the 2026 outlook expects one in three new cars there to be electric. In September 2026, battery electric cars alone made up almost 30% of new cars registered in the European Union, with registrations up by more than 70% on a year earlier. In the United States, electric cars held a share of just under 10% in 2025, with sales lower after federal tax credits ended in September 2025.

New markets and new models

Growth is spreading well beyond the largest markets. More than 100 countries recorded higher electric car sales in 2025. In Southeast Asia sales more than doubled, to nearly 20% of new cars, and in Latin America they rose by 75%. Choice keeps widening: nearly 1,000 of the roughly 2,500 car models on sale worldwide in 2025 were electric, with about 150 new electric models announced for 2026 and about 70 for 2027.

Higher oil prices in 2026 have also widened the running-cost advantage of electric cars. Based on April 2026 prices, the annual fuel saving from driving an electric car in the European Union was 35% larger than in 2025.

The UAE: building the charging network

The UAE is the Middle East's largest electric car market, accounting for almost half of the region's roughly 75,000 electric car sales in 2025. Dubai had more than 40,600 electric vehicles by mid-2025 and a network of more than 1,270 chargers. The national charging company, launched in May 2024, plans to deploy 1,000 chargers across all seven emirates by 2030, including ultra-fast hubs, in support of the national aim to raise electric and hybrid vehicles to 50% of the vehicles on UAE roads by 2050.

What it means

Electric cars are now a quarter of the world's new car market, with China above half, Europe moving towards a third and fast growth in Asia and Latin America. The 2027 question is no longer whether the share rises but how fast. For the UAE, a growing national charging network positions the country to keep leading electric car adoption in the region.

Scenarios: the world's electric car sales share in 2027

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.* The variable is the share of new cars sold worldwide in calendar year 2027 that are electric (battery electric plus plug-in hybrid), as first reported in the main international energy agency's first full-year figure, expected in its annual global electric vehicle outlook in spring 2028. The share is read in percent as stated, so "31.4%" counts as 31.4%; a figure with more than one decimal place is rounded half up to one decimal place, so 30.95% counts as 31.0%. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number, so "over 30%" counts as 30.0%. A figure given as a fraction counts as its percentage to one decimal place, so "one in three" counts as 33.3%. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. Later revisions are ignored. The bands cover every possible value: exactly 28.0% falls in band 2, exactly 31.0% in band 3 and exactly 34.0% in band 4. If no full-year 2027 global figure is published by 30 September 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.

What to watch

1. The full-year 2026 figure: the first global share for 2026, due in spring 2027, against the 28% outlook.
2. China's monthly share: whether electric cars stay above 60% of retail sales through 2027.
3. Europe: monthly registrations and the share of electric cars as tighter emissions rules apply.
4. The United States: whether sales recover from the end of federal tax credits.
5. Emerging markets: growth in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India.
6. Oil prices: the running-cost gap between electric and conventional cars.
7. The UAE: new charger openings and electric vehicle registrations.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.