Hub of the World: UAE Aviation and Global Air Travel to 2030

Key figures (as of October 2026)

Dubai International: the world's international gateway

Dubai International has been the world's busiest airport for international passengers for twelve consecutive years. Traffic rose from 87.0 million in 2023 to 92.3 million in 2024 and a record 95.2 million in 2025, the highest annual international traffic ever recorded by any airport. December 2025 was the busiest month in its history, with 8.7 million guests, and the fourth quarter of 2025 was its busiest ever, with 25.1 million.

Temporary regional disruptions in the first half of 2026 constrained airspace and flight schedules. The airport welcomed 31.5 million guests in the first half, and traffic rebuilt steadily from April: 3.5 million in April, 4.5 million in May, 5 million in June and 6.3 million in July, a rise of 26% in a single month. By September, airline capacity had returned to 84% of earlier levels, with most remaining carriers expected back for the winter season. The airport now expects to reach 100 million annual passengers by the end of 2027.

Al Maktoum International: building for 260 million

Dubai International's maximum capacity is around 115 million passengers a year, so the emirate's next stage of growth will come from Al Maktoum International at Dubai World Central. In April 2024 Dubai approved the designs for a new passenger terminal costing AED 128 billion. When complete, the airport will have five parallel runways, more than 400 aircraft contact stands and capacity for 260 million passengers and 12 million tonnes of cargo a year, and all of Dubai International's operations will move there.

Construction is on schedule. The first phase, for 150 million passengers, is due in the early 2030s, and the next milestone is a second runway by the end of 2027. The airport is planned around eight passenger nodes of about 32 million passengers each, so capacity can be added ahead of demand.

Abu Dhabi, Sharjah and the national airlines

Zayed International in Abu Dhabi handled a record 32.5 million passengers in 2025, up 12.8%, and the emirate's five airports together passed 33 million, a record. Terminal A, opened in November 2023, can handle up to 45 million passengers a year. By late June 2026 the airport was welcoming more than 93,000 passengers a day, above the same period of 2025. Sharjah International also set a record in 2025, with more than 19.4 million passengers, up 13.9%.

The Emirates Group reported a record profit before tax of AED 24.4 billion for the year to March 2026. Emirates ended the year with 277 aircraft and an order book of 367, with deliveries running to 2038. Etihad Airways carried a record 22.4 million passengers in 2025, up 21%, grew its fleet to 127 aircraft and its network to 110 destinations, and posted a record profit of AED 2.6 billion. This winter Etihad has opened new routes to Luxembourg and Calgary, with Gothenburg following in December.

The global picture

Air travel worldwide keeps setting records. Nearly 5 billion passengers flew in 2025, and global forecasts point to 5.1 billion in 2026, up 2.4%. Airlines are expected to fill a record 84.0% of seats this year. Hubs with room to grow, such as the UAE's, are well placed for the coming decade.

What it means

The UAE combines the world's busiest international airport, fast-growing hubs in Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, and airlines with record profits and large order books. With Al Maktoum International designed for 260 million passengers, the country is building capacity decades ahead of demand. The question for 2027 is how fast Dubai International returns to and passes its record pace.

Scenarios: Dubai International's passenger total in 2027

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures and plans above.* The variable is Dubai International's total passenger traffic for calendar year 2027, as first officially reported by the airport operator, typically in early 2028. The figure is read in millions of passengers. If the first report gives both a rounded headline and an exact count, the exact count decides; otherwise the stated figure is used as written, so "100.1 million" counts as 100.1 million and "100 million" as exactly 100.0 million. A figure stated as "more than", "about" or "nearly" a number counts as that number. Later revisions are ignored. The bands cover every possible value: exactly 85.0 million falls in band 2, exactly 90.0 million in band 3, exactly 95.0 million in band 4 and exactly 100.0 million in band 5. If no official 2027 annual total is published by 30 June 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.

What to watch

1. Monthly and quarterly traffic: Dubai International's figures for the rest of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
2. The 2026 total: the full-year figure, due in early 2027, and the pace of the rebuild it shows.
3. Airline returns: the restoration of full schedules by international carriers over the winter season.
4. Al Maktoum International: the opening of the second runway and the first airline moves.
5. Abu Dhabi and Sharjah: full-year 2026 traffic against the 2025 records.
6. Global demand: updated forecasts for world passenger numbers in 2027.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.