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UAE Tour 2027: Who Wins the Overall Title?

The ninth UAE Tour, the only race of cycling's top tier held in the Middle East, runs from 15 to 21 February 2027. Its eight editions have produced six different champions. Tadej Pogacar has won it three times, more than any other rider, and Isaac del Toro is the defending champion. Neither rider's 2027 start is confirmed, and that uncertainty shapes this forecast. The Centre puts Pogacar first, del Toro second and the 2026 runner-up Antonio Tiberi third, with a large share left for the rest of a deep field.

SectorCycling Networks
RegionUAE
PublishedOctober 2026
Most likelyTadej Pogacar 40%

Key figures (as of October 2026)

2027 race dates15-21 February 2027 (ninth edition); the women's race runs from 3 to 6 February
Editions held8 (2019-2026), with 6 different overall winners
Most overall winsTadej Pogacar, 3 (2021, 2022, 2025)
Pogacar's record in the race4 starts: 3 wins and one second place (2020)
2026 podiumDel Toro; Tiberi at 20 seconds; Luke Plapp at 1 minute 14 seconds
Team recordRiders from the home team have won 4 of the 8 editions
2027 routeNot yet published

The roll of honour

| Year | Overall winner | |---|---| | 2019 | Primoz Roglic | | 2020 | Adam Yates | | 2021 | Tadej Pogacar | | 2022 | Tadej Pogacar | | 2023 | Remco Evenepoel | | 2024 | Lennert Van Eetvelt | | 2025 | Tadej Pogacar | | 2026 | Isaac del Toro |

Since its first edition in 2019, the UAE Tour has become a fixture of the season's opening weeks. It crosses the country from the dunes of Liwa to the coast of Fujairah, and from the streets of Dubai to Abu Dhabi's islands. In 2028, Abu Dhabi will host the Road World Championships, which reflects the country's growing place in world cycling and its investment in community cycling.

The climbs that decide it

Jebel Hafeet, near Al Ain, is the race's signature finish. The road climbs about 10 km up wide, three-lane hairpins, at gradients mostly around 8-9%. It has decided the race again and again. Pogacar won there in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2025. In 2026, del Toro attacked 2.5 km from the top to take back the leader's jersey on the second-last day.

Jebel Jais, in Ras Al Khaimah, is the race's other great mountain finish. In 2025, Pogacar won there in an uphill sprint to take the overall lead.

Jebel Mobrah, new in 2026, added a steep test: about 15 km, with a closing 6 km averaging 12% and peaking at 17%. Tiberi won there alone and took the lead.

In 2026, the race had seven stages with two summit finishes and a 12.2 km individual time trial, for about 3,600 metres of climbing. The margins are often small: over the last four editions, the winning gap ranged from 2 seconds (2024) to 1 minute 14 seconds (2025).

Who is likely to start

Start lists are not published this far ahead, so the race is described here only as reported:

  • Tadej Pogacar. His team is planning his 2027 season. The UAE Tour is reported as one possible season opener, but an earlier start in Australia in January has not been ruled out, and no decision has been confirmed. His stated main goals for 2027 are the Tour de France, the World Championships and the Vuelta a Espana. His 2026 season ended early after a crash.
  • Isaac del Toro. The defending champion won the 2026 race as his first event of that season. His 2027 programme has not been announced. Reports point to the Giro d'Italia as his most likely Grand Tour target, but this has not been confirmed.
  • Antonio Tiberi. The 2026 runner-up, who won on Jebel Mobrah. His 2027 programme has not been reported.
  • Others with recent form here: Luke Plapp (third in 2026, second in 2023), Felix Gall (fifth in 2026; third on Jebel Jais in 2025 and on Jebel Hafeet in 2026), Harold Tejada (fourth in 2026), Van Eetvelt (2024 winner) and Evenepoel (2023 winner).

How the weights are built

Centre calculation. Win chance = chance of starting × chance of winning if he starts. The start chances are the Centre's judgement from the reported plans above. They are not confirmed data.

| Rider | Chance of starting | Chance of winning if he starts | Product | |---|---|---|---| | Pogacar | 50% | 80% | 40% | | Del Toro | about 60% as leader if Pogacar is absent; a team-mate if Pogacar starts | about 55% as leader | about 16.5% (50% × 60% × 55%), plus about 3.5% if Pogacar starts but does not win: about 20% | | Tiberi | about 50% | about 16% | about 8% | | Everyone else | | | 32% |

Scenarios: the 2027 UAE Tour overall winner

Resolution rule: the rider listed first in the official final general classification, published by the race organiser on the final stage day of the 2027 UAE Tour (scheduled for 21 February 2027). Later disqualifications or reassignments do not count. If a named rider does not start, his band resolves as not won. If the race is shortened, the general classification the organiser publishes as final counts. If no final general classification is published by 31 March 2027, the forecast is withdrawn. The four bands are mutually exclusive and cover every outcome. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score.

40%

Tadej Pogacar

Pogacar has won three of his four starts here and was second in the other. In 2025 he won on both Jebel Jais and Jebel Hafeet, finishing 1 minute 14 seconds clear. If he starts, he is the strongest rider in the race, so the Centre puts his chance of winning at about 80%. His start is the main uncertainty. The race is only one of his reported options for opening the season, and no decision has been confirmed, so the start chance is set at one in two. That halves the weight.

20%

Isaac del Toro

The defending champion beat Tiberi by 20 seconds in 2026, won on Jebel Hafeet, and also won the opening stage and the young riders' jersey. He is most likely to lead his team if Pogacar opens his season elsewhere, and less likely to ride for himself if Pogacar starts. With his 2027 programme not yet announced, his band carries about a fifth of the probability.

8%

Antonio Tiberi

Tiberi was the strongest climber outside the home team in 2026. He won on Jebel Mobrah and led the race until the Jebel Hafeet stage, and he was seventh in 2023. With no reported 2027 programme and a likely stronger field at the top, the Centre gives him about a one-in-two chance of starting and a modest chance of winning if he does.

32%

Any other rider

This band covers everyone else, including Plapp, Gall, Tejada, Van Eetvelt and Evenepoel, and any other home-team leader. Six different riders have won the eight editions, and in 2023 and 2024 the race went to riders who are not named in bands 1-3. If neither Pogacar nor del Toro starts, this band becomes the most likely outcome. That keeps it at about a third. If Pogacar does not start, the Centre's split is roughly del Toro one third, Tiberi one eighth and the rest of the field just over half.

What to watch

  1. Team programme announcements in December and January: whether Pogacar opens in Australia or at the UAE Tour, and whether del Toro returns to defend his title.
  2. The 2027 route: whether Jebel Hafeet, Jebel Jais or Jebel Mobrah are included, and whether there is a time trial.
  3. Early-season form: results from January stage races for Tiberi, Plapp, Gall and the young climbers.
  4. Crosswinds on the flat stages: in 2025, splits before Jebel Hafeet cost several contenders their chances.
  5. Build-up to Abu Dhabi 2028: how the race and the wider cycling community prepare for the Road World Championships.

Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.