Key figures (as of October 2026)
| World real GDP growth, 2025 / 2026 / 2027 (forecast) | 3.5% / 3.1% / 3.4% |
| Advanced and emerging economies, 2027 (forecast) | 1.8% and 4.4% |
| UAE real GDP growth, 2025 | 6.2%, to AED 1.9 trillion; non-oil GDP up 6.8% |
| UAE real GDP, first half of 2026 | AED 961.9 billion, up 0.4%; non-oil up 1.8% |
| Non-oil share of UAE real GDP, first half of 2026 | 79.2%, up from 78.1% a year earlier |
| UAE real GDP growth forecasts for 2027 | 7.7%, 9.5% and 10.4% |
| Official UAE forecast for 2027 by sector | Hydrocarbon GDP +26.8%, non-oil GDP +4.9% |
| UAE oil production | 3.8 million barrels a day in June and July 2026; capacity of 5 million targeted by 2027 |
| GCC real GDP growth forecasts for 2027 | 9.1% and 10.3% |
| Saudi Arabia real GDP growth forecasts for 2027 | 7.9% in international forecasts; 12.8% in the official pre-budget statement |
The world economy: a modest pick-up
International forecasts published in October 2026 see global growth easing from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, then rising to 3.4% in 2027. Two forces shape that path. Higher energy and commodity prices have weighed on activity in 2026, while strong investment in artificial intelligence has supported trade and investment. Global inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
Advanced economies are forecast to grow 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Emerging and developing economies are expected to speed up from 3.7% to 4.4%. Economies that import energy and sit outside the technology supply chain face the toughest outlook. The central assumption behind every major forecast is the same: that energy markets and shipping normalise gradually through 2027.
The UAE: strong foundations, fast rebound
The UAE entered 2026 from a position of strength. Real GDP grew 6.2% in 2025 to AED 1.9 trillion, and non-oil GDP grew 6.8% to AED 1.5 trillion. Construction led with growth of 11.1%, followed by financial and insurance services at 10.4%, real estate at 7.9% and transport and storage at 7.8%.
Temporary regional supply and shipping disruptions shaped activity in 2026, mainly through lower oil output in the spring. Real GDP rose 0.4% in the first half of 2026 to AED 961.9 billion, and non-oil GDP grew 1.8%. The non-oil economy reached 79.2% of real GDP, up from 78.1% a year earlier. Financial and insurance activities grew 14.8% in the half, information and communication 7.3%, health and social work 6% and construction 5.1%.
Full-year forecasts for 2026 point to a modest outcome, and that lower base, combined with recovering output, is why forecasts for 2027 are so high. International forecasts put UAE growth at 7.7% and 9.5%, and the official forecast is 10.4%. The 7.7% figure is 2.4 percentage points higher than the same forecaster's April projection.
What drives 2027
Energy output. Oil production rose to a near-record 3.8 million barrels a day in June and July 2026, and the UAE has said it will add output gradually, in line with demand. The official forecast sees hydrocarbon GDP rising 26.8% in 2027, as production capacity rises towards 5 million barrels a day. New gas and LNG projects add further capacity.
Non-oil sectors. The official forecast sees non-oil GDP growing 4.9% in 2027, and international forecasters expect tourism, trade, transport, finance and construction to lead the rebound. Business surveys point to firm momentum: the non-oil purchasing managers' index stood at 55.3 in August and September 2026, its highest in 20 months, with export orders rising.
Trade. Non-oil foreign trade reached AED 1.937 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 13.1%, and non-oil exports rose 23.9%. A growing network of trade agreements supports further gains in 2027.
AI and investment. International estimates suggest that continued investment in artificial intelligence could add about 0.5 percentage points a year to UAE growth. Public infrastructure spending and strong fiscal buffers add further support.
The wider Gulf
The GCC as a whole is forecast to grow by between 9.1% and 10.3% in 2027, as hydrocarbon production and exports return to normal. Non-oil activity across the bloc is projected to grow 4.5% in 2027. Saudi Arabia, which grew 4.6% in 2025, is forecast to grow 7.9% in 2027 in international forecasts and 12.8% in its official pre-budget statement. Saudi non-oil activities grew 1.8% in the first half of 2026 and reached 57.3% of GDP, a record share.
What it means
2027 is set to be a year of recovery for the Gulf and a year of steady, if modest, growth for the world. For the UAE, the question is not whether the economy grows strongly but how strongly, and that depends mainly on how quickly energy output reaches its new capacity. The non-oil economy, now close to four-fifths of output, gives the recovery a broad and stable base.
Scenarios: UAE real GDP growth in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the forecasts and data above.* Scenarios revised on 30 October 2026 to a finer split. The variable is the UAE's official real GDP growth rate for calendar year 2027, as first published by the UAE's federal statistics authority, expected during 2028. The forecast resolves on that first published annual figure, on whatever national accounts series is in use at the time, including the comprehensive GDP revision planned for early 2027. The bands cover every possible value: a figure of exactly 10.5% falls in band 1, exactly 9.0% in band 2, exactly 7.5% in band 3, exactly 6.0% in band 4, and band 5 covers any value below 6%, including one below zero.
Exceptional rebound: 10.5% or more
This is above every published forecast, including the official 10.4%. On the Centre's reading, it needs hydrocarbon GDP to rise by about a quarter, on the assumption that trade and shipping normalise early in 2027, and non-oil growth to beat its 4.9% forecast, so it gets the smaller share of the former top band.
Strong rebound: from 9% to below 10.5%
Two of the three main forecasts, 9.5% and 10.4%, sit in this band. Oil output was already near 3.8 million barrels a day by mid-2026, the UAE aims to raise production capacity to 5 million barrels a day by 2027, and a low 2026 base adds to measured growth.
Solid rebound, upper half: from 7.5% to below 9%
The 7.7% international forecast falls here. This is the likely outcome if normalisation is more gradual, with exports reaching full volumes only around mid-2027, and it takes the larger share of the former middle band because a published forecast sits inside it.
Solid rebound, lower half: from 6% to below 7.5%
This fits a slower rise in production, in line with demand, and a later return to full export volumes. No published forecast sits here, but forecasters describe uncertainty as high.
Steady growth below 6%
This would require the recovery in energy output to come much later in 2027 than forecasters assume. The non-oil economy alone, forecast to grow 4.9%, would still keep growth positive. The weight is the lowest of the original three because every published forecast is above 7%, but it remains meaningful given how much the outlook depends on timing. Edges: the first published figure is used at its published precision. Exactly 10.5% falls in scenario 1, exactly 9.0% in scenario 2, exactly 7.5% in scenario 3 and exactly 6.0% in scenario 4. A figure published only as "more than", "about" or "nearly" X counts as X, and a range counts at its midpoint. If no official 2027 figure is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
What to watch
- Oil production: monthly output and progress towards 5 million barrels a day of capacity.
- Quarterly GDP data: third- and fourth-quarter 2026 prints, and the revised national accounts series in early 2027.
- Non-oil momentum: business surveys, tourism and aviation volumes as travel normalises.
- Trade: nine-month and full-year 2026 non-oil trade data.
- Forecast updates: the next round of international and official forecasts in early 2027.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.