Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Dubai's official resident population at 31 December 2025 | 4,580,300, up about 332,000 (7.5%) in a year |
| Dubai's official resident population at 25 October 2026 | 4,821,621, up 241,321 since January |
| Abu Dhabi population, 2024 | 4,135,985, up 7.5% |
| Dubai homes handed over, 2025 (industry estimates) | about 46,700 to 47,650 |
| Dubai homes expected in 2026 (industry projection) | up to about 55,600, which would be the most since 2008 |
| Dubai real estate transactions, 2025 | AED 917 billion across more than 270,000 deals, up 20% |
| Abu Dhabi real estate transactions, 2025 | AED 142 billion across 42,814 deals, up 44% |
| Abu Dhabi real estate transactions, first half of 2026 | AED 117 billion, up 112% year on year |
Two cities that keep growing
Dubai's population passed 4.58 million at the end of 2025, a gain of about 332,000 residents in one year. Growth of 7.5% is among the fastest in the emirate's modern history. The count has kept rising through 2026, reaching 4,821,621 on 25 October, or about 24,600 new residents a month. The long-range urban master plan prepares the city for 5.8 million residents by 2040.
Abu Dhabi's population reached 4,135,985 in 2024, up 7.5% in a year and 51% over the decade. Al Ain and Al Dhafra grew alongside the capital region. The emirate's building stock rose by 29,415 units in 2024 to 783,970, of which 466,700 were residential.
The delivery pipeline
Industry estimates put Dubai's 2025 handovers at between about 46,700 and 47,650 homes, about four in five of them apartments. Deliveries stepped up again in 2026. Industry estimates show between about 23,600 and 24,800 homes completed in the first half, and second-half projections range from about 14,000 to 32,000. At the top of that range, the full-year total would reach about 55,600, the highest annual figure since 2008.
Further ahead, industry estimates show 162,500 Dubai homes scheduled for 2027 and 128,200 for 2028. Actual handovers usually arrive more gradually than schedules, and industry estimates based on current construction progress point to more than 60,000 deliveries in 2027. Developers have also paced new launches in 2026, with industry estimates of about 28,000 units released in the first half. This helps keep the pipeline in step with demand.
Industry estimates of 2025 deliveries in Abu Dhabi vary with coverage, up to about 7,000 homes. Industry estimates also show about 15,900 units scheduled for 2026, 16,800 for 2027 and 22,300 for 2028. New launches are concentrated in master-planned communities on Yas, Saadiyat, Al Reem and Hudayriyat islands and in Masdar City.
Demand for new homes
Buyers in both emirates have been active. Dubai recorded AED 917 billion of real estate transactions in 2025, with investments of more than AED 680 billion and 129,600 new investors. From January to September 2026, total registered transactions reached AED 574 billion. Sales across 123,416 deals, including 104,198 residential units, were the second-highest on record for the period by value. Mortgage registrations reached AED 151.13 billion, a sign of growing end-user ownership.
Abu Dhabi's market grew even faster. Transactions reached a record AED 142 billion in 2025, including AED 99.4 billion of sales. In the first half of 2026 they reached AED 117 billion, with sales up 163.7% to AED 86.1 billion. Twenty-eight new projects were registered in those six months.
Homes for a growing population
In 2025, Dubai added about 332,000 residents and, on industry estimates, roughly 47,000 new homes, or around seven new residents for each home delivered. In Abu Dhabi, 2024 brought about 288,000 new residents and 29,415 new units of all kinds. The rise in deliveries planned for 2026 to 2028 gives both cities the room to house this growth, and phased handovers allow each new community to fill steadily as it opens.
What it means
Abu Dhabi and Dubai are planning ahead for large and growing populations. Record sales in 2025 are now becoming finished homes, and Dubai's 2026 deliveries could be the highest since 2008. Because handovers are phased and launches are paced, new supply arrives in step with the residents who need it, supporting more choice for families and steady growth in both cities.
Scenarios: Dubai's official resident population at 31 December 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the trends above.* Scenarios revised on 30 October 2026 to a finer split. The variable is Dubai's official resident population at 31 December 2027, as published by the emirate's statistics authority. The forecast resolves on the official resident population at 31 December 2027 as first announced. If no official count for that date is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn. Measured from 4,821,621 on 25 October 2026, each range below corresponds to an average monthly gain over the remaining 14 months or so.
Much slower growth: below 5,000,000
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs an average gain of less than about 12,600 a month, around half the 2026 pace. The weight is small because nothing in the 2025 or 2026 data points to a slowdown of that size.
Slower growth: at least 5,000,000 but below 5,100,000
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers average gains of roughly 12,600 to 19,600 a month, below both recent paces, and would still see Dubai pass five million residents. The weight reflects normal variation in the pace of arrivals from year to year.
Steady growth, lower half: at least 5,100,000 but below 5,175,000
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers average gains of roughly 19,600 to 24,900 new residents a month. It includes the 2026 pace so far, about 24,600 a month (241,321 since January), so it needs only a continuation of this year's trend.
Steady growth, upper half: at least 5,175,000 but below 5,250,000
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers average gains of roughly 24,900 to 30,200 a month. It includes the 2025 pace, about 27,700 a month (332,000 in the year), so it gets an equal share of the former steady-growth band.
Faster growth: 5,250,000 or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs an average gain of at least about 30,200 new residents a month, above both the 2025 and the 2026 pace, for example as large new communities open and new jobs are created. The weight is modest because neither 2025 nor 2026 has reached that pace. Edges: exactly 5,000,000 falls in scenario 2, exactly 5,100,000 in scenario 3, exactly 5,175,000 in scenario 4 and exactly 5,250,000 in scenario 5. The exact official count in persons is used; if the first announcement gives only a rounded figure, the official real-time count for 31 December 2027 is used. Only if neither is available does a figure published as "more than", "about" or "nearly" X count as X, provided it is stated to at least three decimal places in millions; otherwise the forecast is withdrawn. A range counts at its midpoint. If no official count for 31 December 2027 is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
What to watch
- Population counts: Dubai's official resident population each month and Abu Dhabi's next annual population release.
- Full-year 2026 handovers: where Dubai lands within the projected range and how Abu Dhabi tracks its scheduled deliveries.
- 2027 delivery progress: how much of the homes scheduled in both emirates, on industry estimates, are completed.
- Transaction data: full-year 2026 results in both emirates, especially mortgage-backed purchases by residents.
- New communities: handovers on Abu Dhabi's islands and in Dubai's growth districts.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research and do not constitute investment advice.