1. A clear question
Every study starts from a concrete question about what comes next, with a defined horizon, for example how many clubs will advance, or whether a target will be met by a given year.
2. Researched and verified figures
We gather data from a wide range of official, institutional and public material. Every key figure is cross-checked before publication and dated. Figures that cannot be verified are left out.
3. Analysis
We explain where things stand and why, separating what is known from what is uncertain, and identifying the main drivers that could change the outcome.
4. Scenarios and probabilities
Each forecast sets out four or five mutually exclusive scenarios that cover every outcome and sum to 100%. Resolved forecasts are scored with the multi-category Brier score. Forecasts first published with three scenarios were revised to a finer split on 30 October 2026; each page notes the revision. Our analysts weight the scenarios using the current data, historical patterns, delivery records and the balance of risks. The most likely scenario is the one that requires the fewest surprises. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, not certainties.
5. Signposts and review
Every study ends with what to watch: the dates, data releases and milestones that would confirm or change the picture. Studies are revisited as new information arrives.
Standards
- Sports studies are statistical analysis for reading only. They are not betting and do not encourage it.
- Nothing we publish is investment advice.
- All content is written in plain English and kept factual.