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Each study sets out the key figures, the analysis behind them and four or five scenarios whose probabilities total 100%.
After a major supply shock in 2026, the 2027 oil market is widely expected to swing into surplus, but depleted stocks and a fragile recovery mean the path down from today's prices may be uneven.
The number of people facing catastrophic hunger fell sharply in 2026, but drought, funding gaps and fragile access leave three countries at active risk of famine going into 2027.
Intercity trains now link Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Al Dhaid and Fujairah. With Al Dhafra and Sharjah stations next and cross-border lines advancing, rail is becoming a core part of how the UAE, and soon the Gulf, moves.
The UAE leads the world in everyday use of generative AI and is building one of the largest AI computing campuses on earth. The next twelve months should see its data-centre capacity more than double.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi now have cycling networks that, in length, rival or exceed the world's most famous bicycle cities. Dubai is on a clear path to 1,000 km by 2030.
Three rounds into the league stage, Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli sit first and second in the West with perfect records. The analysis points to a strong Emirati presence in the knockout rounds.
For the first time in a decade, the number of people forced from their homes worldwide has fallen, driven by a historic wave of returns. But new emergencies in 2026 and a deep funding shortfall mean the decline is fragile, and 2027 is more likely to bring a plateau than a lasting fall.
2025 set a record for the number of armed conflicts involving states, and the number of conflicts between states reached its highest level on record. Several ceasefire and peace tracks are now open, but none is yet settled, so 2027 is most likely to bring a high plateau rather than a clear turn towards peace.
The UAE is moving its desalination fleet from heat-hungry thermal plants to reverse osmosis powered increasingly by solar and other clean energy. Abu Dhabi expects about 92% of its water to come from reverse osmosis by 2030, and Dubai plans for all desalinated water to be produced with clean energy and waste heat by the same year.
In five years the UAE has built a wide network of trade agreements, and record non-oil trade of AED 3.8 trillion in 2025 puts the national AED 4 trillion non-oil foreign trade target within reach well ahead of 2031.
GLP-1 medicines have moved from a diabetes niche to one of the largest drug classes in the world, with new pills, cheaper generic semaglutide in several markets and fast-growing factory capacity. Even so, global health guidance expects them to reach fewer than 10% of the people who could benefit by 2030, so supply and price will shape their public-health impact.
Abu Dhabi and Dubai are each home to more than four million people and growing fast, and a rising residential delivery programme is now turning record sales into finished homes for new residents.
The world economy is expected to pick up modestly in 2027, while Gulf economies are set for a strong rebound as energy output and trade normalise, with the UAE's growth forecasts ranging from 7.7% to 10.4%.
About 880 million people, or 10.6% of humanity, are aged 65 or over in 2026. The latest global population projections put that number at about 1.58 billion, or 16.3%, by 2050, while the number aged 80 or over grows about 2.6 times. Longer lives and smaller families are driving the shift in every region. Eastern Asia and Europe lead it today, and Latin America is ageing quickly from a younger base. The change brings new demands for pensions, health systems and care workers, and a strong case for policies that keep people healthy and active for longer.
Gulf producers supplied about 22% of record world LNG trade in 2025, and with Qatar building towards about 142 million tonnes a year and the UAE's Ruwais LNG due in 2028, the region is set to remain a cornerstone of global gas supply to 2030.
The UAE is using technology to grow more of its food at home. Under the national food strategy to 2051, it has backed AgTech firms with incentives, opened one of the world's largest vertical farms and set aside a dedicated food-tech district in Dubai. In Abu Dhabi, greenhouses now produce most of the vegetables. Their output rose 29% in 2024 to more than 142,000 tonnes, or 85.6% of the emirate's vegetable harvest. In October 2026 the strategy was being updated with a new aim: grow half of the country's crops locally.
The three warmest years on record are 2023, 2024 and 2025, with 2024 the warmest at about 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. A very strong El Niño has been building in the tropical Pacific through 2026, and El Niño's effect on global temperature usually peaks in the year after it forms. Most published outlooks therefore expect 2027 to become the warmest year on record. We put that at 85%, with the main uncertainty being how quickly the event fades.
Fully driverless robotaxis now carry fare-paying passengers in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and with operators planning fleets in the hundreds and then thousands, Dubai's goal of more than 4,000 self-driving taxis and limousines by 2030 sets the pace for the UAE's next two years.
Dubai International welcomed a record 95.2 million passengers in 2025, the most international travellers ever handled by any airport, and with traffic rebuilding month by month, a 260-million-passenger airport rising at Al Maktoum International and record years for Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, the UAE is set to remain the world's leading aviation hub to 2030.
After six of 26 rounds, the 2026-27 UAE Pro League has its tightest start of the professional era. Only two points separate the top six clubs. Al Jazira lead on 14 points, with Shabab Al Ahli, Al Wasl and defending champions Al Ain on 13. Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli have won the last two titles and set the strongest points pace over a full season. That makes them the two most likely champions, but with 20 rounds to play, the field is still wide open.
The 2027 Australian Open runs from 11 to 31 January, with the men's singles final scheduled for Sunday 31 January. Three men have shared the four 2026 majors. Carlos Alcaraz won in Melbourne, Alexander Zverev won in Paris and New York, and Jannik Sinner won at Wimbledon. Sinner, who won in Melbourne in 2024 and 2025, still rates highest on hard courts, but he has not played since July because of a knee injury. That keeps the title open. The Centre's estimate puts Sinner narrowly ahead of Alcaraz, with Zverev third and a strong chasing group behind them.
One in four new cars sold worldwide in 2025 was electric, and with more than 20 million sold, a share expected to reach 28% in 2026, record monthly shares in China, strong growth in Europe and a steady stream of new models, the question for 2027 is how far the world's electric car share will climb, and whether it passes 30%.
World goods trade grew faster than output in 2025 and has kept its pace in 2026, as strong demand for the equipment behind artificial intelligence has outweighed disruption to energy and shipping routes. The latest official outlook sees merchandise trade volume rising 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, and the question is whether 2027 matches that path, falls short of it or beats it.
The UAE passport has made the largest climb of any passport in the twenty-year history of the most widely cited global passport ranking. It moved from 10th in January 2025 to 5th in January 2026, then to joint 2nd by March 2026, holding that place in July with access to 188 destinations without a prior visa. The question for the January 2027 edition is whether it holds second place, rises to the top or sees its position change in a tightly packed field.
The ninth UAE Tour, the only race of cycling's top tier held in the Middle East, runs from 15 to 21 February 2027. Its eight editions have produced six different champions. Tadej Pogacar has won it three times, more than any other rider, and Isaac del Toro is the defending champion. Neither rider's 2027 start is confirmed, and that uncertainty shapes this forecast. The Centre puts Pogacar first, del Toro second and the 2026 runner-up Antonio Tiberi third, with a large share left for the rest of a deep field.
US home prices ended 2025 with their weakest calendar-year gain since 2011 and then picked up through the summer of 2026, reaching an annual gain of 2.1% in August. Since then mortgage rates have climbed above 7%, pending sales have fallen to a record low and the supply of homes for sale is the highest since 2019. Published forecasts for 2027 point to gains of well under 1% on other national measures, and the question is whether the leading national index slows, stalls or turns negative by December 2027.
Wild poliovirus now circulates in only two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and of its three types only type 1 remains. Over the past six years, annual case counts have ranged from 6 to 140. As of 25 October 2026, official surveillance had confirmed 49 cases in 2026: 42 in Afghanistan and 7 in Pakistan. Pakistan's cases and positive wastewater samples have fallen sharply, while cases in Afghanistan have risen. The global eradication programme's extended timeline targets the end of 2027 for wild poliovirus, the year this study forecasts. The Centre's central estimate is 30 to 59 cases, with real probability on both a sharp fall and a rebound.
The current official global population projections put the world population at about 8.37 billion on 1 July 2027, up from about 8.30 billion in 2026. Annual growth has slowed to about 0.8%. The next full revision of those projections is scheduled for release on 11 July 2027. It will re-estimate the population using new censuses, surveys and birth data. The last revision raised the estimated 2022 world population by about 46 million and the 2027 figure by about 33 million, even as projected births were cut. The Centre expects the next edition's figure for mid-2027 to stay close to the current one, with a slightly higher chance of an upward than a downward move.
Measles is one of the most contagious vaccine-preventable diseases, and reported cases have risen well above their pandemic-era lows. The official global annual total of reported measles cases was 669,083 in 2023, 476,412 in 2024 and 411,913 in 2025. Provisional monthly data show 2026 running above 2025. Global coverage with the first vaccine dose has held at 84%, and with the second dose at 77%, both short of the 95% two-dose level needed to stop transmission. The Centre's central estimate for the official 2027 global total is 450,000 to 649,999 reported cases, with substantial probability on a quieter year.
The UAE's non-oil foreign trade passed US$1 trillion for the first time in 2025, reaching about AED 3.8 trillion, and non-oil exports rose 45.5% to AED 813.8 billion, already above the national goal set for 2031. The first half of 2026 brought new records, with non-oil exports of AED 452.8 billion, up 23.9% on the first half of 2025. With a growing network of trade agreements and export orders rising again through the third quarter, the question is how far the UAE's non-oil exports climb in the full year 2026.
The world added a record 511 GW of solar power capacity in 2025, three quarters of all new renewable capacity, after 452 GW in 2024 and 345.5 GW in 2023. In 2026 the market is set for its first annual fall in two decades, because installations in China have dropped sharply after a change to how new solar power is priced. Industry outlooks expect growth to resume in 2027, and the question is how far global additions recover, and whether they return to the 2025 record.
Under the Paris Agreement, every Party sets out its own climate targets in a national plan, a nationally determined contribution, and communicates a new plan every five years, each meant to go further than the last. The current round of plans, mostly with targets for 2035, was due in 2025. The official mid-round count, published on 27 October 2026, covers 127 new plans representing 154 Parties, listed from 1 January 2024 to 31 August 2026. Because the joint plan of the European Union and its 27 member states represents 28 Parties, this equals 127 of the 167 submitting Parties when the European Union and its member states count as one, leaving about 40 still to submit. This study forecasts how many Parties have a new plan listed by 31 December 2027. The Centre's central estimate is 150 to 154, with real probability on a faster finish.
Round 8 of the 2026-27 UAE Pro League is played over Saturday 7 and Sunday 8 November 2026, with seven matches. Round 7 has been postponed to give the national team extra preparation time for the 2027 Asian Cup, so this is the next round on the calendar, and the table still stands after six rounds. Three meetings between top-six clubs headline the weekend: Sharjah v Shabab Al Ahli, Al Jazira v Al Wasl and Al Wahda v Al Ain. For every match, the Centre sets out the key figures and a simple goal model, and turns them into five result bands. This is statistical analysis only.
The Republic of Somaliland restored its independence on 18 May 1991, within the borders it held at independence on 26 June 1960, and has governed itself since then with its own constitution, elected institutions, currency and passport. On 26 December 2025 Israel formally recognised the Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, and as of 30 October 2026 it is the only UN member state to have done so. In the ten months since, ambassadors have been named on both sides and the Republic of Somaliland has opened an embassy in Jerusalem, but no other UN member state has announced recognition. This study forecasts how many additional UN member states formally recognise the Republic of Somaliland between 1 November 2026 and 31 December 2027. The Centre's central estimate is that none do, with a meaningful chance of one or more.
Homes sold in the municipality of Lisbon changed hands at a median of 5,299 euros per square metre in the second quarter of 2026, up 8.9% on a year earlier. That annual rate was half the 17.8% of the first quarter, and the median barely moved between the two quarters. Mortgage rates edged up in September and the euro area's policy rate went up in September. This study asks how much the official Lisbon median price per square metre changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official house price index for the Madrid region rose 12.9% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, after 13.6% in the first quarter and 14.2% at the end of 2025. Appraised homes in the city of Madrid were valued at 5,418 euros per square metre, up 9.4% on a year earlier. Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, home mortgages in the region are falling, and Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026 while decisions on new housing decrees are pending. This study asks how much the regional index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official price index for existing owner-occupied homes in Amsterdam rose 1.0% in the year to the third quarter of 2026, well below the national rise of 3.4%, after 0.8% in the second quarter and 1.6% at the end of 2025. Homes in the city sold for an average of 649,427 euros in the third quarter. Mortgage rates have risen since the spring, and rents on new mid-priced leases have been regulated since July 2024. This study asks how much the Amsterdam index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official house price index for Dublin City rose 1.0% in the year to August 2026, down from 6.7% in December 2025 and well below the national rise of 5.1%. Homes in Dublin City sold at a median price of 475,000 euros in the twelve months to August, and new tenants paid an average of 2,301 euros a month in the first quarter. New rent rules took effect on 1 March 2026. This study asks how much the Dublin City house price index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028, measured from December to December.
The official price index for second-hand flats in Paris rose 0.6% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, after 0.7% in the first quarter and 1.5% at the end of 2025. Existing flats in the city sold for 9,560 euros per square metre, and the index is still about 11% below its 2020 peak. Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, and the rules that cap rents in the city are due to expire in late November 2026 unless parliament completes an extension. This study asks how much the Paris index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official price index for owner-occupied flats in Germany's seven largest cities, the smallest official index that covers Berlin, fell 0.4% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, after rises of 0.3% in the first quarter and 2.2% at the end of 2025. In Berlin itself, flats sold in 2025 at an average of 5,511 euros per square metre, up 5% on 2024, and prices were nearly unchanged in the first half of 2026. Mortgage rates have risen to about 4%, and the city's cap on rents for new leases runs to the end of 2029. This study asks how much the seven-city flats index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
No G20 economy contracted in 2025, and in the main international financial institution's October 2026 outlook database not one of the 19 national members of the G20 is projected to show a fall in real GDP in 2027. World growth is projected at 3.4% in 2027, up from 3.1% in 2026. The margins are thin in places: four members are projected to grow by less than 1% in 2027, and the outlook names a longer conflict, a reassessment of artificial intelligence and fiscal strain as downside risks. This study asks how many G20 economies show a decline in real GDP in calendar year 2027.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main sea route for oil exports from the Gulf. In 2025 an average of about 21.2 million barrels a day of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products passed through it, on the Centre's own calculation from official US energy statistics quarterly figures. Flows in 2026 have been far below that level, and official outlooks expect most of the region's oil output to return to its early-2026 average by the middle of 2027. At the same time, the UAE is adding export pipeline capacity to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. This study asks what average daily volume of oil passes through the strait in calendar year 2027.
Dubai's official residential real estate price index rose 9.81% in 2025 on 2024, with villas up 14.83% and apartments up 7.38%. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the latest quarter published, the index stood at 167.33, up 8.9% on a year earlier and 3.3% on the third quarter. Growth has moderated from an annual rise of 11.62% in 2024 to a steadier 9.81% in 2025. This study asks how much the official Dubai index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official residential sale price index for Abu Dhabi City reached 180.38 in August 2026, up 17.3% on a year earlier and 80.4% above its January 2020 base, on the Centre's own calculation. Monthly gains have eased through 2026, from 1.46% in January to 0.92% in August, while sales of homes in the emirate in the first half of 2026 were close to three times their level a year earlier. This study asks how much the Abu Dhabi City index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028, measured from December to December.
Malaria remains a major cause of illness and death worldwide, and most of its burden falls on young children in Africa. The official annual global malaria estimate put cases at 282 million in 2024, up about 9 million (3%) on 2023, and deaths at 610,000. New tools are spreading: malaria vaccines are now part of routine immunization in 25 African countries, and new nets, tests and the first treatment for newborns have been approved. At the same time, international health aid fell sharply in 2025, partial resistance to the core antimalarial drug is confirmed in four African countries, and a very strong El Niño is under way. The Centre's central estimate for the official 2027 global figure is 295 to 309 million cases, with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
World air passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (one paying passenger flown one kilometre), grew 5.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, and airlines filled 83.6% of their seats. Growth has moderated in 2026: traffic from January to September was 0.3% higher than in the same months of 2025, and the airline industry's mid-2026 outlook expects growth of 2.1% for the full year 2026 compared with 2025. This study asks how fast world passenger traffic could grow in calendar year 2027 compared with 2026.
The UAE's non-oil foreign trade reached about AED 3.8 trillion in 2025, up 27% on 2024 and almost double the 2021 level, and passed US$1 trillion for the first time. The first half of 2026 brought AED 1.937 trillion, up 13.1% on the first half of 2025, with exports taking a larger share of the total. With a widening network of trade agreements and a national goal of AED 4 trillion by 2031, this study asks how large the UAE's total non-oil foreign trade could be in calendar year 2027.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, reached SAR 366.08 billion in 2025, up 18.9% on 2024, led by a 64.4% rise in re-exports. The ratio of non-oil exports to imports rose to 38.5%, from 35.3% in 2024, and oil's share of total exports fell to 68.7%, from 73.1%. This study asks how large Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, could be in calendar year 2027.
Kuwait's non-oil exports of national origin, goods made in Kuwait, reached KD 1,418.4 million in 2025, up from KD 1,310.5 million in 2024 and KD 1,151.4 million in 2023. On the Centre's own calculation that is growth of 8.2% in 2025 after 13.8% in 2024. Together with re-exports, non-oil goods made up 12.3% of Kuwait's exports in 2025, up from 10.3% in 2024. This study asks how large Kuwait's non-oil exports of national origin could be in calendar year 2027.
Oman's non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, reached OMR 6,698 million in 2025, with each quarter between OMR 1,621 million and OMR 1,731 million. Growth continued in 2026: from January to July, non-oil exports reached OMR 4,309 million, up 10.7% on the same months of 2025, led by base metals, chemical products and precious stones and metals. This study asks how large Oman's non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, could be in calendar year 2027.
Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin, goods made in Bahrain, reached BD 4,120.7 million in 2025, up 6.7% on the BD 3,863.6 million of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, aluminium led the list of products, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States were the largest buyers. That quarter brought BD 1,047 million, up 5% on the fourth quarter of 2024. This study asks how large Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin could be in calendar year 2027.
Worldwide semiconductor sales reached USD 791.7 billion in 2025, up 25.6% on the USD 630.5 billion of 2024, led by logic and memory chips. Growth has picked up sharply in 2026: sales in the first half were about USD 702 billion, up 102% on the first half of 2025, and sales from January to August passed USD 1 trillion. The industry's official sales statistics body forecast in June 2026 that sales could reach about USD 1.51 trillion in 2026 and about USD 1.91 trillion in 2027. This study asks how large worldwide semiconductor sales could be in calendar year 2027.
World food commodity prices have risen through 2026. The main international monthly index of world food commodity prices (2014–2016 = 100) averaged 122.0 points in 2024 and 127.2 points in 2025, and reached 136.0 points in September 2026, 5.8% higher than a year earlier but 15.1% below its March 2022 peak. Vegetable oils, cereals and sugar have led the rise, while dairy prices have fallen sharply. A likely strong-to-very strong El Niño, high energy, fertiliser and freight costs, and disrupted grain shipments point to firm prices into 2027, while a large cereal harvest, easing energy prices and the likely end of El Niño by mid-2027 argue for some relief. The Centre's central estimate for the 2027 annual average of the index is 133.0 to 140.9 points, with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
Arctic sea ice shrinks each summer and reaches its smallest extent in September. In the official satellite record, which began in 1979, the September average extent was 4.81 million km² in 2026, the thirteenth lowest on record and 1.60 million km² below the 1981–2010 average of 6.41 million km². The record low, 3.57 million km², was set in 2012. The long-term September trend through 2026 is a loss of 74,100 km² a year, or 11.6% per decade. September extent in 2025 and 2026 stayed above the lows of 2020, 2023 and 2024, helped in 2026 by a cool, stormy summer over the Arctic Ocean, even though the winter maximum in both years was the lowest on record. The Centre's most likely band for the September 2027 average is 4.50 to 4.79 million km², with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
Three of eight league-phase rounds have been played in the 2026-27 Champions League, Europe's top club competition. Paris Saint-Germain, winners of the last two finals, lead the 36-club table on 9 points, with a goal difference of +9. Arsenal, the beaten finalists in 2026, are seventh on 7 points and are rated among the strongest clubs in the world. Bayern Munich are 14th on 5 points but hold the top spot in a public club strength rating. The final will be played in Madrid on 5 June 2027. In the Centre's judgement, Paris Saint-Germain are the single most likely winner at 17%, ahead of Arsenal at 16%, Bayern Munich at 14% and Barcelona at 13%. The largest band, at 40%, is that any other club lifts the trophy.
The benchmark London afternoon gold auction price averaged USD 3,431.54 per troy ounce in 2025, up 43.8% on the 2024 average of USD 2,386.20. In 2026 the price peaked early and has eased since. Monthly averages fell from USD 5,019.53 in February to USD 4,115.65 in October to the 29th, and the price was USD 4,026.30 on 29 October. Even so, the average for 2026 to 29 October, USD 4,501.65, is 31.2% above the 2025 average. An international development lender forecast in October 2026 that gold prices could average about USD 4,250 in 2027, 7.6% below its forecast for 2026. This study asks what the average afternoon price could be in calendar year 2027.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet. By 30 October 2026 it had produced 10 named storms, one hurricane and one major hurricane, three named storms fewer than normal for the date, with a strong El Niño, which tends to raise wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. The 1991–2020 average is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes a season. Recent seasons have ranged from 13 named storms in 2025 to a record 30 in 2020. Official outlooks expect El Niño to stay strong through early 2027 and then to fade, with neutral conditions favoured by May to July 2027. A fading El Niño tends to remove the main brake on Atlantic storm formation. The variable is the number of tropical and subtropical storms in the first-published end-of-season tally for 2027. The Centre's most likely band is 13 to 15 storms, with substantial probability on a busier season.
An international development lender's monthly commodity price data put the benchmark exchange's grade A copper price at an average of USD 9,947 per tonne in 2025, up 8.8% on the 2024 average of USD 9,142. In 2026 the price has risen strongly. The September 2026 average was USD 14,474, and the average of the monthly figures from January to September 2026 was USD 13,431, 35.0% above the 2025 average on the Centre's own calculation. In October 2026 the same lender forecast an average of about USD 13,000 in 2027, 1.5% below its forecast for 2026. The international copper statistics body expects the refined copper market to stay in surplus in 2027. This study asks what the lender's annual average copper price could be for calendar year 2027.
The 114th Tour de France starts in Edinburgh on 2 July 2027 and finishes in Paris on 25 July. The route was presented on 22 October 2026. It has 21 stages and 71 km of individual time trials, the most since 2012, and three summit finishes. Tadej Pogacar has won five of the last seven editions, including 2026 by 6 minutes 26 seconds, and has finished first or second in every Tour he has started. He has named the 2027 Tour as one of his main goals. The Centre makes him the most likely single rider at 55%. Remco Evenepoel, the 2026 runner-up and the reigning world time-trial champion, follows at 14%, then two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard at 12% and the 2026 fourth-placed rider Paul Seixas at 5%. Any other rider takes the remaining 14%.
The world added 158.7 GW of wind power capacity in 2025, onshore and offshore together, according to the first figures of the intergovernmental renewables statistics body. That was 40.2% more than the 113.2 GW it first reported for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and the largest annual addition in its tables, which go back to 2016. China supplied about three quarters of the 2025 total. The international wind industry trade body expects new installations to reach 178 GW in 2026 and 186.5 GW in 2027 on its own count, which runs a little higher than the statistics body's. This study asks how much wind capacity the statistics body could first report as added worldwide in calendar year 2027.
The world produced 1,849.4 million tonnes (Mt) of crude steel in 2025, according to the first annual figure of the international steel industry statistics body. That was 1.8% less than the 1,882.6 Mt it first reported for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and the second fall in a row in first-published figures. China made about 52% of the 2025 total. The statistics body expects global steel demand to be little changed in 2026 and to grow by 1.7% in 2027. This study asks how much crude steel the statistics body could first report as produced worldwide in calendar year 2027.
The 14th Men's Cricket World Cup, the one-day 50-over tournament, will be played in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia from 2 October to 21 November 2027. It has 14 teams, 57 matches and 12 venues, and the final is at the Wanderers in Johannesburg. Ten teams have qualified and four places remain open until the qualifying tournament in early 2027. India lead the one-day international team rankings with a rating of 115, won the 2025 Champions Trophy unbeaten and reached the 2023 World Cup final. The Centre makes India the most likely single team at 24%. Defending six-time champions Australia follow at 17%, co-hosts South Africa at 16% and New Zealand, ranked second, at 13%. Any other team takes the remaining 30%.
This study is about organisations, not about Muslim communities. It covers only organisations that an official government review, court ruling, ban or designation has identified as Muslim Brotherhood-linked or Islamist extremist, in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Spain. Official texts in these countries draw the same line: a UK government strategy of April 2026 states that "Islamists do not represent the Muslim communities of the UK", and France's head of state warned in July 2025 against conflating Islamism with Islam and Muslims. On 30 October 2026, the Centre found no official record showing that any officially identified organisation, or a party it officially runs or controls, holds an elected seat at any level in the four countries. Official findings describe these organisations' reach as mainly local and associational, and governments in France, Germany and the UK have added restrictions since 2024. This study forecasts the highest level of elected office such an organisation holds on 31 December 2030. That electoral test is deliberately narrow: the official findings describe these organisations' activity mainly outside elections, through associations, places of worship, schools, charities and youth work, and a section below sets this out. The Centre puts the highest weight on no elected seat at any level, with small weights on the higher levels.
13 sectors, one approach. Each sector page lists its published studies.
Growth, inflation, interest rates, currencies and the markets that connect them.
6 studiesOil, gas, power and the energy transition, from supply balances to prices.
5 studiesGlobal food supply, prices and the outlook for hunger and humanitarian needs.
3 studiesClimate trends, water resources, desalination and adaptation.
4 studiesHealth systems, public health trends and medical innovation.
4 studiesArtificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and the technology economy.
4 studiesPartnerships, cooperation and the international agenda.
5 studiesUrban growth, housing, liveability and city infrastructure.
11 studiesRail, ports, logistics and the flows of trade.
10 studiesDemographics, education, work and social trends.
2 studiesConflict trends and forced displacement worldwide, covered neutrally and from a humanitarian angle.
2 studiesOutcome probabilities from statistical analysis only. No betting.
6 studiesCycling infrastructure, usage and how cities compare worldwide.
3 studiesSports studies are statistical analysis for reading only. They are not betting and do not encourage it.
Development, infrastructure, technology, mobility and sport across the UAE and the wider Gulf.
Intercity trains now link Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Al Dhaid and Fujairah. With Al Dhafra and Sharjah stations next and cross-border lines advancing, rail is becoming a core part of how the UAE, and soon the Gulf, moves.
The UAE leads the world in everyday use of generative AI and is building one of the largest AI computing campuses on earth. The next twelve months should see its data-centre capacity more than double.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi now have cycling networks that, in length, rival or exceed the world's most famous bicycle cities. Dubai is on a clear path to 1,000 km by 2030.
Three rounds into the league stage, Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli sit first and second in the West with perfect records. The analysis points to a strong Emirati presence in the knockout rounds.
The UAE is moving its desalination fleet from heat-hungry thermal plants to reverse osmosis powered increasingly by solar and other clean energy. Abu Dhabi expects about 92% of its water to come from reverse osmosis by 2030, and Dubai plans for all desalinated water to be produced with clean energy and waste heat by the same year.
In five years the UAE has built a wide network of trade agreements, and record non-oil trade of AED 3.8 trillion in 2025 puts the national AED 4 trillion non-oil foreign trade target within reach well ahead of 2031.
Abu Dhabi and Dubai are each home to more than four million people and growing fast, and a rising residential delivery programme is now turning record sales into finished homes for new residents.
The world economy is expected to pick up modestly in 2027, while Gulf economies are set for a strong rebound as energy output and trade normalise, with the UAE's growth forecasts ranging from 7.7% to 10.4%.
The UAE is using technology to grow more of its food at home. Under the national food strategy to 2051, it has backed AgTech firms with incentives, opened one of the world's largest vertical farms and set aside a dedicated food-tech district in Dubai. In Abu Dhabi, greenhouses now produce most of the vegetables. Their output rose 29% in 2024 to more than 142,000 tonnes, or 85.6% of the emirate's vegetable harvest. In October 2026 the strategy was being updated with a new aim: grow half of the country's crops locally.
Fully driverless robotaxis now carry fare-paying passengers in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and with operators planning fleets in the hundreds and then thousands, Dubai's goal of more than 4,000 self-driving taxis and limousines by 2030 sets the pace for the UAE's next two years.
Dubai International welcomed a record 95.2 million passengers in 2025, the most international travellers ever handled by any airport, and with traffic rebuilding month by month, a 260-million-passenger airport rising at Al Maktoum International and record years for Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, the UAE is set to remain the world's leading aviation hub to 2030.
After six of 26 rounds, the 2026-27 UAE Pro League has its tightest start of the professional era. Only two points separate the top six clubs. Al Jazira lead on 14 points, with Shabab Al Ahli, Al Wasl and defending champions Al Ain on 13. Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli have won the last two titles and set the strongest points pace over a full season. That makes them the two most likely champions, but with 20 rounds to play, the field is still wide open.
The UAE passport has made the largest climb of any passport in the twenty-year history of the most widely cited global passport ranking. It moved from 10th in January 2025 to 5th in January 2026, then to joint 2nd by March 2026, holding that place in July with access to 188 destinations without a prior visa. The question for the January 2027 edition is whether it holds second place, rises to the top or sees its position change in a tightly packed field.
The ninth UAE Tour, the only race of cycling's top tier held in the Middle East, runs from 15 to 21 February 2027. Its eight editions have produced six different champions. Tadej Pogacar has won it three times, more than any other rider, and Isaac del Toro is the defending champion. Neither rider's 2027 start is confirmed, and that uncertainty shapes this forecast. The Centre puts Pogacar first, del Toro second and the 2026 runner-up Antonio Tiberi third, with a large share left for the rest of a deep field.
The UAE's non-oil foreign trade passed US$1 trillion for the first time in 2025, reaching about AED 3.8 trillion, and non-oil exports rose 45.5% to AED 813.8 billion, already above the national goal set for 2031. The first half of 2026 brought new records, with non-oil exports of AED 452.8 billion, up 23.9% on the first half of 2025. With a growing network of trade agreements and export orders rising again through the third quarter, the question is how far the UAE's non-oil exports climb in the full year 2026.
Round 8 of the 2026-27 UAE Pro League is played over Saturday 7 and Sunday 8 November 2026, with seven matches. Round 7 has been postponed to give the national team extra preparation time for the 2027 Asian Cup, so this is the next round on the calendar, and the table still stands after six rounds. Three meetings between top-six clubs headline the weekend: Sharjah v Shabab Al Ahli, Al Jazira v Al Wasl and Al Wahda v Al Ain. For every match, the Centre sets out the key figures and a simple goal model, and turns them into five result bands. This is statistical analysis only.
Dubai's official residential real estate price index rose 9.81% in 2025 on 2024, with villas up 14.83% and apartments up 7.38%. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the latest quarter published, the index stood at 167.33, up 8.9% on a year earlier and 3.3% on the third quarter. Growth has moderated from an annual rise of 11.62% in 2024 to a steadier 9.81% in 2025. This study asks how much the official Dubai index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official residential sale price index for Abu Dhabi City reached 180.38 in August 2026, up 17.3% on a year earlier and 80.4% above its January 2020 base, on the Centre's own calculation. Monthly gains have eased through 2026, from 1.46% in January to 0.92% in August, while sales of homes in the emirate in the first half of 2026 were close to three times their level a year earlier. This study asks how much the Abu Dhabi City index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028, measured from December to December.
World air passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (one paying passenger flown one kilometre), grew 5.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, and airlines filled 83.6% of their seats. Growth has moderated in 2026: traffic from January to September was 0.3% higher than in the same months of 2025, and the airline industry's mid-2026 outlook expects growth of 2.1% for the full year 2026 compared with 2025. This study asks how fast world passenger traffic could grow in calendar year 2027 compared with 2026.
The UAE's non-oil foreign trade reached about AED 3.8 trillion in 2025, up 27% on 2024 and almost double the 2021 level, and passed US$1 trillion for the first time. The first half of 2026 brought AED 1.937 trillion, up 13.1% on the first half of 2025, with exports taking a larger share of the total. With a widening network of trade agreements and a national goal of AED 4 trillion by 2031, this study asks how large the UAE's total non-oil foreign trade could be in calendar year 2027.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, reached SAR 366.08 billion in 2025, up 18.9% on 2024, led by a 64.4% rise in re-exports. The ratio of non-oil exports to imports rose to 38.5%, from 35.3% in 2024, and oil's share of total exports fell to 68.7%, from 73.1%. This study asks how large Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, could be in calendar year 2027.
Kuwait's non-oil exports of national origin, goods made in Kuwait, reached KD 1,418.4 million in 2025, up from KD 1,310.5 million in 2024 and KD 1,151.4 million in 2023. On the Centre's own calculation that is growth of 8.2% in 2025 after 13.8% in 2024. Together with re-exports, non-oil goods made up 12.3% of Kuwait's exports in 2025, up from 10.3% in 2024. This study asks how large Kuwait's non-oil exports of national origin could be in calendar year 2027.
Oman's non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, reached OMR 6,698 million in 2025, with each quarter between OMR 1,621 million and OMR 1,731 million. Growth continued in 2026: from January to July, non-oil exports reached OMR 4,309 million, up 10.7% on the same months of 2025, led by base metals, chemical products and precious stones and metals. This study asks how large Oman's non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, could be in calendar year 2027.
Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin, goods made in Bahrain, reached BD 4,120.7 million in 2025, up 6.7% on the BD 3,863.6 million of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, aluminium led the list of products, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States were the largest buyers. That quarter brought BD 1,047 million, up 5% on the fourth quarter of 2024. This study asks how large Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin could be in calendar year 2027.
Global questions on energy, markets and food security.
After a major supply shock in 2026, the 2027 oil market is widely expected to swing into surplus, but depleted stocks and a fragile recovery mean the path down from today's prices may be uneven.
The number of people facing catastrophic hunger fell sharply in 2026, but drought, funding gaps and fragile access leave three countries at active risk of famine going into 2027.
For the first time in a decade, the number of people forced from their homes worldwide has fallen, driven by a historic wave of returns. But new emergencies in 2026 and a deep funding shortfall mean the decline is fragile, and 2027 is more likely to bring a plateau than a lasting fall.
2025 set a record for the number of armed conflicts involving states, and the number of conflicts between states reached its highest level on record. Several ceasefire and peace tracks are now open, but none is yet settled, so 2027 is most likely to bring a high plateau rather than a clear turn towards peace.
GLP-1 medicines have moved from a diabetes niche to one of the largest drug classes in the world, with new pills, cheaper generic semaglutide in several markets and fast-growing factory capacity. Even so, global health guidance expects them to reach fewer than 10% of the people who could benefit by 2030, so supply and price will shape their public-health impact.
About 880 million people, or 10.6% of humanity, are aged 65 or over in 2026. The latest global population projections put that number at about 1.58 billion, or 16.3%, by 2050, while the number aged 80 or over grows about 2.6 times. Longer lives and smaller families are driving the shift in every region. Eastern Asia and Europe lead it today, and Latin America is ageing quickly from a younger base. The change brings new demands for pensions, health systems and care workers, and a strong case for policies that keep people healthy and active for longer.
Gulf producers supplied about 22% of record world LNG trade in 2025, and with Qatar building towards about 142 million tonnes a year and the UAE's Ruwais LNG due in 2028, the region is set to remain a cornerstone of global gas supply to 2030.
The three warmest years on record are 2023, 2024 and 2025, with 2024 the warmest at about 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. A very strong El Niño has been building in the tropical Pacific through 2026, and El Niño's effect on global temperature usually peaks in the year after it forms. Most published outlooks therefore expect 2027 to become the warmest year on record. We put that at 85%, with the main uncertainty being how quickly the event fades.
The 2027 Australian Open runs from 11 to 31 January, with the men's singles final scheduled for Sunday 31 January. Three men have shared the four 2026 majors. Carlos Alcaraz won in Melbourne, Alexander Zverev won in Paris and New York, and Jannik Sinner won at Wimbledon. Sinner, who won in Melbourne in 2024 and 2025, still rates highest on hard courts, but he has not played since July because of a knee injury. That keeps the title open. The Centre's estimate puts Sinner narrowly ahead of Alcaraz, with Zverev third and a strong chasing group behind them.
One in four new cars sold worldwide in 2025 was electric, and with more than 20 million sold, a share expected to reach 28% in 2026, record monthly shares in China, strong growth in Europe and a steady stream of new models, the question for 2027 is how far the world's electric car share will climb, and whether it passes 30%.
World goods trade grew faster than output in 2025 and has kept its pace in 2026, as strong demand for the equipment behind artificial intelligence has outweighed disruption to energy and shipping routes. The latest official outlook sees merchandise trade volume rising 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, and the question is whether 2027 matches that path, falls short of it or beats it.
US home prices ended 2025 with their weakest calendar-year gain since 2011 and then picked up through the summer of 2026, reaching an annual gain of 2.1% in August. Since then mortgage rates have climbed above 7%, pending sales have fallen to a record low and the supply of homes for sale is the highest since 2019. Published forecasts for 2027 point to gains of well under 1% on other national measures, and the question is whether the leading national index slows, stalls or turns negative by December 2027.
Wild poliovirus now circulates in only two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and of its three types only type 1 remains. Over the past six years, annual case counts have ranged from 6 to 140. As of 25 October 2026, official surveillance had confirmed 49 cases in 2026: 42 in Afghanistan and 7 in Pakistan. Pakistan's cases and positive wastewater samples have fallen sharply, while cases in Afghanistan have risen. The global eradication programme's extended timeline targets the end of 2027 for wild poliovirus, the year this study forecasts. The Centre's central estimate is 30 to 59 cases, with real probability on both a sharp fall and a rebound.
The current official global population projections put the world population at about 8.37 billion on 1 July 2027, up from about 8.30 billion in 2026. Annual growth has slowed to about 0.8%. The next full revision of those projections is scheduled for release on 11 July 2027. It will re-estimate the population using new censuses, surveys and birth data. The last revision raised the estimated 2022 world population by about 46 million and the 2027 figure by about 33 million, even as projected births were cut. The Centre expects the next edition's figure for mid-2027 to stay close to the current one, with a slightly higher chance of an upward than a downward move.
Measles is one of the most contagious vaccine-preventable diseases, and reported cases have risen well above their pandemic-era lows. The official global annual total of reported measles cases was 669,083 in 2023, 476,412 in 2024 and 411,913 in 2025. Provisional monthly data show 2026 running above 2025. Global coverage with the first vaccine dose has held at 84%, and with the second dose at 77%, both short of the 95% two-dose level needed to stop transmission. The Centre's central estimate for the official 2027 global total is 450,000 to 649,999 reported cases, with substantial probability on a quieter year.
The world added a record 511 GW of solar power capacity in 2025, three quarters of all new renewable capacity, after 452 GW in 2024 and 345.5 GW in 2023. In 2026 the market is set for its first annual fall in two decades, because installations in China have dropped sharply after a change to how new solar power is priced. Industry outlooks expect growth to resume in 2027, and the question is how far global additions recover, and whether they return to the 2025 record.
Under the Paris Agreement, every Party sets out its own climate targets in a national plan, a nationally determined contribution, and communicates a new plan every five years, each meant to go further than the last. The current round of plans, mostly with targets for 2035, was due in 2025. The official mid-round count, published on 27 October 2026, covers 127 new plans representing 154 Parties, listed from 1 January 2024 to 31 August 2026. Because the joint plan of the European Union and its 27 member states represents 28 Parties, this equals 127 of the 167 submitting Parties when the European Union and its member states count as one, leaving about 40 still to submit. This study forecasts how many Parties have a new plan listed by 31 December 2027. The Centre's central estimate is 150 to 154, with real probability on a faster finish.
The Republic of Somaliland restored its independence on 18 May 1991, within the borders it held at independence on 26 June 1960, and has governed itself since then with its own constitution, elected institutions, currency and passport. On 26 December 2025 Israel formally recognised the Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, and as of 30 October 2026 it is the only UN member state to have done so. In the ten months since, ambassadors have been named on both sides and the Republic of Somaliland has opened an embassy in Jerusalem, but no other UN member state has announced recognition. This study forecasts how many additional UN member states formally recognise the Republic of Somaliland between 1 November 2026 and 31 December 2027. The Centre's central estimate is that none do, with a meaningful chance of one or more.
Homes sold in the municipality of Lisbon changed hands at a median of 5,299 euros per square metre in the second quarter of 2026, up 8.9% on a year earlier. That annual rate was half the 17.8% of the first quarter, and the median barely moved between the two quarters. Mortgage rates edged up in September and the euro area's policy rate went up in September. This study asks how much the official Lisbon median price per square metre changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official house price index for the Madrid region rose 12.9% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, after 13.6% in the first quarter and 14.2% at the end of 2025. Appraised homes in the city of Madrid were valued at 5,418 euros per square metre, up 9.4% on a year earlier. Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, home mortgages in the region are falling, and Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026 while decisions on new housing decrees are pending. This study asks how much the regional index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official price index for existing owner-occupied homes in Amsterdam rose 1.0% in the year to the third quarter of 2026, well below the national rise of 3.4%, after 0.8% in the second quarter and 1.6% at the end of 2025. Homes in the city sold for an average of 649,427 euros in the third quarter. Mortgage rates have risen since the spring, and rents on new mid-priced leases have been regulated since July 2024. This study asks how much the Amsterdam index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official house price index for Dublin City rose 1.0% in the year to August 2026, down from 6.7% in December 2025 and well below the national rise of 5.1%. Homes in Dublin City sold at a median price of 475,000 euros in the twelve months to August, and new tenants paid an average of 2,301 euros a month in the first quarter. New rent rules took effect on 1 March 2026. This study asks how much the Dublin City house price index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028, measured from December to December.
The official price index for second-hand flats in Paris rose 0.6% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, after 0.7% in the first quarter and 1.5% at the end of 2025. Existing flats in the city sold for 9,560 euros per square metre, and the index is still about 11% below its 2020 peak. Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, and the rules that cap rents in the city are due to expire in late November 2026 unless parliament completes an extension. This study asks how much the Paris index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
The official price index for owner-occupied flats in Germany's seven largest cities, the smallest official index that covers Berlin, fell 0.4% in the year to the second quarter of 2026, after rises of 0.3% in the first quarter and 2.2% at the end of 2025. In Berlin itself, flats sold in 2025 at an average of 5,511 euros per square metre, up 5% on 2024, and prices were nearly unchanged in the first half of 2026. Mortgage rates have risen to about 4%, and the city's cap on rents for new leases runs to the end of 2029. This study asks how much the seven-city flats index changes over the two years from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028.
No G20 economy contracted in 2025, and in the main international financial institution's October 2026 outlook database not one of the 19 national members of the G20 is projected to show a fall in real GDP in 2027. World growth is projected at 3.4% in 2027, up from 3.1% in 2026. The margins are thin in places: four members are projected to grow by less than 1% in 2027, and the outlook names a longer conflict, a reassessment of artificial intelligence and fiscal strain as downside risks. This study asks how many G20 economies show a decline in real GDP in calendar year 2027.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main sea route for oil exports from the Gulf. In 2025 an average of about 21.2 million barrels a day of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products passed through it, on the Centre's own calculation from official US energy statistics quarterly figures. Flows in 2026 have been far below that level, and official outlooks expect most of the region's oil output to return to its early-2026 average by the middle of 2027. At the same time, the UAE is adding export pipeline capacity to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. This study asks what average daily volume of oil passes through the strait in calendar year 2027.
Malaria remains a major cause of illness and death worldwide, and most of its burden falls on young children in Africa. The official annual global malaria estimate put cases at 282 million in 2024, up about 9 million (3%) on 2023, and deaths at 610,000. New tools are spreading: malaria vaccines are now part of routine immunization in 25 African countries, and new nets, tests and the first treatment for newborns have been approved. At the same time, international health aid fell sharply in 2025, partial resistance to the core antimalarial drug is confirmed in four African countries, and a very strong El Niño is under way. The Centre's central estimate for the official 2027 global figure is 295 to 309 million cases, with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
Worldwide semiconductor sales reached USD 791.7 billion in 2025, up 25.6% on the USD 630.5 billion of 2024, led by logic and memory chips. Growth has picked up sharply in 2026: sales in the first half were about USD 702 billion, up 102% on the first half of 2025, and sales from January to August passed USD 1 trillion. The industry's official sales statistics body forecast in June 2026 that sales could reach about USD 1.51 trillion in 2026 and about USD 1.91 trillion in 2027. This study asks how large worldwide semiconductor sales could be in calendar year 2027.
World food commodity prices have risen through 2026. The main international monthly index of world food commodity prices (2014–2016 = 100) averaged 122.0 points in 2024 and 127.2 points in 2025, and reached 136.0 points in September 2026, 5.8% higher than a year earlier but 15.1% below its March 2022 peak. Vegetable oils, cereals and sugar have led the rise, while dairy prices have fallen sharply. A likely strong-to-very strong El Niño, high energy, fertiliser and freight costs, and disrupted grain shipments point to firm prices into 2027, while a large cereal harvest, easing energy prices and the likely end of El Niño by mid-2027 argue for some relief. The Centre's central estimate for the 2027 annual average of the index is 133.0 to 140.9 points, with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
Arctic sea ice shrinks each summer and reaches its smallest extent in September. In the official satellite record, which began in 1979, the September average extent was 4.81 million km² in 2026, the thirteenth lowest on record and 1.60 million km² below the 1981–2010 average of 6.41 million km². The record low, 3.57 million km², was set in 2012. The long-term September trend through 2026 is a loss of 74,100 km² a year, or 11.6% per decade. September extent in 2025 and 2026 stayed above the lows of 2020, 2023 and 2024, helped in 2026 by a cool, stormy summer over the Arctic Ocean, even though the winter maximum in both years was the lowest on record. The Centre's most likely band for the September 2027 average is 4.50 to 4.79 million km², with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
Three of eight league-phase rounds have been played in the 2026-27 Champions League, Europe's top club competition. Paris Saint-Germain, winners of the last two finals, lead the 36-club table on 9 points, with a goal difference of +9. Arsenal, the beaten finalists in 2026, are seventh on 7 points and are rated among the strongest clubs in the world. Bayern Munich are 14th on 5 points but hold the top spot in a public club strength rating. The final will be played in Madrid on 5 June 2027. In the Centre's judgement, Paris Saint-Germain are the single most likely winner at 17%, ahead of Arsenal at 16%, Bayern Munich at 14% and Barcelona at 13%. The largest band, at 40%, is that any other club lifts the trophy.
The benchmark London afternoon gold auction price averaged USD 3,431.54 per troy ounce in 2025, up 43.8% on the 2024 average of USD 2,386.20. In 2026 the price peaked early and has eased since. Monthly averages fell from USD 5,019.53 in February to USD 4,115.65 in October to the 29th, and the price was USD 4,026.30 on 29 October. Even so, the average for 2026 to 29 October, USD 4,501.65, is 31.2% above the 2025 average. An international development lender forecast in October 2026 that gold prices could average about USD 4,250 in 2027, 7.6% below its forecast for 2026. This study asks what the average afternoon price could be in calendar year 2027.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet. By 30 October 2026 it had produced 10 named storms, one hurricane and one major hurricane, three named storms fewer than normal for the date, with a strong El Niño, which tends to raise wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. The 1991–2020 average is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes a season. Recent seasons have ranged from 13 named storms in 2025 to a record 30 in 2020. Official outlooks expect El Niño to stay strong through early 2027 and then to fade, with neutral conditions favoured by May to July 2027. A fading El Niño tends to remove the main brake on Atlantic storm formation. The variable is the number of tropical and subtropical storms in the first-published end-of-season tally for 2027. The Centre's most likely band is 13 to 15 storms, with substantial probability on a busier season.
An international development lender's monthly commodity price data put the benchmark exchange's grade A copper price at an average of USD 9,947 per tonne in 2025, up 8.8% on the 2024 average of USD 9,142. In 2026 the price has risen strongly. The September 2026 average was USD 14,474, and the average of the monthly figures from January to September 2026 was USD 13,431, 35.0% above the 2025 average on the Centre's own calculation. In October 2026 the same lender forecast an average of about USD 13,000 in 2027, 1.5% below its forecast for 2026. The international copper statistics body expects the refined copper market to stay in surplus in 2027. This study asks what the lender's annual average copper price could be for calendar year 2027.
The 114th Tour de France starts in Edinburgh on 2 July 2027 and finishes in Paris on 25 July. The route was presented on 22 October 2026. It has 21 stages and 71 km of individual time trials, the most since 2012, and three summit finishes. Tadej Pogacar has won five of the last seven editions, including 2026 by 6 minutes 26 seconds, and has finished first or second in every Tour he has started. He has named the 2027 Tour as one of his main goals. The Centre makes him the most likely single rider at 55%. Remco Evenepoel, the 2026 runner-up and the reigning world time-trial champion, follows at 14%, then two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard at 12% and the 2026 fourth-placed rider Paul Seixas at 5%. Any other rider takes the remaining 14%.
The world added 158.7 GW of wind power capacity in 2025, onshore and offshore together, according to the first figures of the intergovernmental renewables statistics body. That was 40.2% more than the 113.2 GW it first reported for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and the largest annual addition in its tables, which go back to 2016. China supplied about three quarters of the 2025 total. The international wind industry trade body expects new installations to reach 178 GW in 2026 and 186.5 GW in 2027 on its own count, which runs a little higher than the statistics body's. This study asks how much wind capacity the statistics body could first report as added worldwide in calendar year 2027.
The world produced 1,849.4 million tonnes (Mt) of crude steel in 2025, according to the first annual figure of the international steel industry statistics body. That was 1.8% less than the 1,882.6 Mt it first reported for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and the second fall in a row in first-published figures. China made about 52% of the 2025 total. The statistics body expects global steel demand to be little changed in 2026 and to grow by 1.7% in 2027. This study asks how much crude steel the statistics body could first report as produced worldwide in calendar year 2027.
The 14th Men's Cricket World Cup, the one-day 50-over tournament, will be played in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia from 2 October to 21 November 2027. It has 14 teams, 57 matches and 12 venues, and the final is at the Wanderers in Johannesburg. Ten teams have qualified and four places remain open until the qualifying tournament in early 2027. India lead the one-day international team rankings with a rating of 115, won the 2025 Champions Trophy unbeaten and reached the 2023 World Cup final. The Centre makes India the most likely single team at 24%. Defending six-time champions Australia follow at 17%, co-hosts South Africa at 16% and New Zealand, ranked second, at 13%. Any other team takes the remaining 30%.
This study is about organisations, not about Muslim communities. It covers only organisations that an official government review, court ruling, ban or designation has identified as Muslim Brotherhood-linked or Islamist extremist, in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Spain. Official texts in these countries draw the same line: a UK government strategy of April 2026 states that "Islamists do not represent the Muslim communities of the UK", and France's head of state warned in July 2025 against conflating Islamism with Islam and Muslims. On 30 October 2026, the Centre found no official record showing that any officially identified organisation, or a party it officially runs or controls, holds an elected seat at any level in the four countries. Official findings describe these organisations' reach as mainly local and associational, and governments in France, Germany and the UK have added restrictions since 2024. This study forecasts the highest level of elected office such an organisation holds on 31 December 2030. That electoral test is deliberately narrow: the official findings describe these organisations' activity mainly outside elections, through associations, places of worship, schools, charities and youth work, and a section below sets this out. The Centre puts the highest weight on no elected seat at any level, with small weights on the higher levels.
How we build every study, from the question to the review.
Every study centres on a concrete question about what comes next, with a defined horizon.
Key figures are checked against official and public data and dated, so readers know how current they are.
Four or five mutually exclusive pathways with their drivers, weighted by the Centre's analysts so that they total 100%.
Each study lists what to watch next, and is revisited as new data arrives.