Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Worldwide semiconductor sales, 2025 | USD 791.7 billion, up 25.6% on 2024 (USD 630.5 billion) |
| Largest product groups, 2025 | logic USD 301.9 billion, up 39.9% on 2024; memory USD 223.1 billion, up 34.8% on 2024 |
| Sales, first quarter of 2026 | USD 298.5 billion, up 25% on the fourth quarter of 2025 |
| Sales, second quarter of 2026 | USD 403.3 billion, up 35.1% on the first quarter of 2026 |
| Sales, first half of 2026 | about USD 702 billion, up 102% on the first half of 2025 |
| Monthly sales, August 2026 (three-month average) | USD 159.7 billion, up 144.3% on August 2025 and 8.0% on July 2026 |
| Sales, January to August 2026 | more than USD 1 trillion |
| Official forecast, June 2026 | 2026: USD 1,511.2 billion, up 89.9% on 2025; 2027: USD 1,913.7 billion, up 26.6% on 2026 |
| Official estimate after second-quarter results, August 2026 | 2026: about USD 1,655 billion, up about 108% on 2025; 2027: about USD 2.1 trillion, up about 29% on 2026 |
Logic and memory lead the way
Semiconductor sales grew 25.6% in 2025 compared with 2024, to USD 791.7 billion. Logic chips were the largest product group, with sales of USD 301.9 billion, up 39.9% on 2024, and memory chips came second at USD 223.1 billion, up 34.8%. Sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 were USD 236.6 billion, 37.1% more than in the fourth quarter of 2024.
A sharp rise in 2026
Growth has gathered pace in 2026. Sales were USD 298.5 billion in the first quarter, up 25% on the fourth quarter of 2025, and USD 403.3 billion in the second quarter, up 35.1% on the first. Sales in the first half were about USD 702 billion, up 102% on the first half of 2025. Monthly sales, reported as three-month averages, reached USD 159.7 billion in August 2026, up 144.3% on August 2025 and 8.0% on July 2026. Sales from January to August 2026 passed USD 1 trillion. All five reported regions grew in August compared with August 2025: the Americas by 180.9%, Asia Pacific and all other markets by 143.0%, China by 131.3%, Europe by 98.5% and Japan by 62.3%.
The official outlook
In June 2026, the industry's official sales statistics body forecast sales of USD 1,511.2 billion in 2026, up 89.9% on 2025, and USD 1,913.7 billion in 2027, up 26.6% on 2026. Memory is forecast to lead, at USD 803.9 billion in 2026 and USD 1,062.1 billion in 2027, up 32.1% on 2026, with logic at USD 522.8 billion in 2027, up 27.1%. On the Centre's own calculation, memory makes up about 53% of forecast 2026 sales and about 55% of forecast 2027 sales. In August 2026, after replacing its second-quarter assumptions with actual results, the same body calculated full-year 2026 sales of about USD 1,655 billion and 2027 sales of about USD 2.1 trillion. It notes that these are not a new forecast. Its next forecast is usually published in early December.
What it means
Semiconductors are at the heart of the growth in computing and artificial intelligence, and sales have risen sharply through 2026. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on USD 2,000 billion or more in 2027 is 64%, and the combined weight on USD 1,750 billion or more is 90%.
Scenarios: worldwide semiconductor sales in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the annual worldwide total of semiconductor sales for calendar year 2027, in USD billion, as first published by the industry's official sales statistics body in its full-year 2027 release, usually in early February 2028. Only that first published full-year 2027 total counts. Forecasts, estimates and monthly or quarterly figures issued before it do not count, and later revisions are ignored. For example, the 2025 total was first published as USD 791.7 billion and later shown as USD 795.6 billion; under this rule only the first figure would count. The total is rounded half up to a whole USD billion, once, before it is placed in a band, so USD 1,999.5 billion counts as USD 2,000 billion. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number, and a figure given as a range counts at its midpoint. If the body rebases, reclassifies or changes the coverage of its statistics before the 2027 total appears, the full-year 2027 total it first publishes on the basis in use at that time is used. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly USD 1,750 billion falls in band 2, exactly USD 2,000 billion in band 3, exactly USD 2,250 billion in band 4 and exactly USD 2,500 billion in band 5. If no full-year 2027 total is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
Cooling: under USD 1,750 billion
On the Centre's own calculation, this means 2027 sales less than about 5.7% above the August 2026 estimate for 2026 of about USD 1,655 billion, and more than about 8.6% below the June 2026 forecast for 2027. It would follow if growth cools after two exceptional years. Memory makes up more than half of forecast sales and its prices can move widely from year to year, so the band keeps some weight. Monthly sales were still rising in August 2026, so the weight is low.
Firm growth: USD 1,750 billion to under USD 2,000 billion
This band holds the latest official forecast for 2027, USD 1,913.7 billion from June 2026. On the Centre's own calculation, it also holds the level that 2027 would reach if monthly sales simply held at the June to August 2026 average of USD 159.7 billion for a whole year, about USD 1,917 billion. It covers growth of about 5.7% to 20.8% on the August 2026 estimate for 2026. The June forecast came before second-quarter results ran above it, so this band gets a high weight but not the highest.
Strong growth: USD 2,000 billion to under USD 2,250 billion
This is the most likely band, and it is not the band that holds the latest official forecast. It holds the official estimate of about USD 2.1 trillion made in August 2026 after second-quarter results, and it covers growth of about 20.8% to 36.0% on the August 2026 estimate for 2026, on the Centre's own calculation. Monthly sales rose 8.0% from July to August 2026, and the June to August average was 27.2% above the March to May average. Further growth in late 2026 would lift the starting level for 2027 above the June to August average and point to this band. It gets the highest weight.
Very strong growth: USD 2,250 billion to under USD 2,500 billion
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of about 36.0% to 51.1% on the August 2026 estimate for 2026. It would follow if monthly sales keep rising through late 2026 and into 2027 at close to their recent pace, led by memory and logic for data centres. That is a real possibility, so the weight is solid.
Exceptional growth: USD 2,500 billion or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of more than about 51.1% on the August 2026 estimate for 2026, more than 30.6% above the June 2026 forecast for 2027. It needs the very fast gains of 2026 to continue through most of 2027. That is possible but would be well above the official outlook, so the weight is lower.
What to watch
- Monthly sales releases: worldwide sales for each month of late 2026 and 2027, starting with September 2026 and the third quarter.
- Year-end official forecast: the industry's official sales statistics body's updated forecast for 2026 and 2027, usually published in early December.
- Full-year 2026 total: the first published annual total for 2026, usually in early February 2027.
- Memory: forecast to be the largest product group in 2026 and 2027, more than half of forecast sales.
- Logic: forecast to be the second-largest group, at USD 522.8 billion in 2027.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.