Key figures (as of October 2026)
| February 2026 average extent | 2.91 million km², tied for twenty-first lowest of 48 years |
| Difference from the 1981–2010 February average (3.07 million km²) | 0.16 million km² below |
| Record low February average | 1.98 million km², in 2023 |
| Highest February average in the record | 3.89 million km², in 2008 |
| Long-term February trend, 1979–2026 | -7,300 km² a year, or -2.39% per decade relative to the 1981–2010 average; not statistically significant |
| 2026 annual minimum (five-day average) | 2.58 million km² on 26 February |
| 2026 winter maximum | 17.59 million km² on 14 September, the third lowest on record (preliminary, as of 23 September 2026) |
| September 2026 average extent | 17.32 million km², third lowest, 1.17 million km² below the 1981–2010 average |
The measure and how it is published
Sea ice extent is the area of ocean where satellites detect at least 15% ice cover. The official national snow and ice data series, the same series used in the Centre's Arctic sea ice study, records it every day from passive microwave satellite data and publishes a monthly average for each month and each hemisphere, usually within the first days of the following month. The February average for the Southern Hemisphere is therefore expected in early March.
This study is separate from the Arctic study. That study covers the Arctic September average; this one covers the Antarctic February average, which falls in the southern summer, when Antarctic ice is at its seasonal low.
Values in the series are reprocessed from time to time as methods and satellite sensors change. From 2025 the series draws on a newer satellite sensor, and the current dataset shows some earlier February values higher than first published. This study resolves on the February 2027 average as first published.
The February record
| Year | Current dataset value (million km²) | Rank in current dataset, lowest first | First-published value (million km²) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2.29 | 5 | – |
| 2022 | 2.21 | 3 | – |
| 2023 | 1.98 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 2024 | 2.19 | 2 | 2.14 |
| 2025 | 2.22 | 4 | – |
| 2026 | 2.91 | 21 (tied) | – |
Current values and ranks as shown in the official monthly dataset updated in October 2026. First-published values as released in each year's early-March monthly analysis. First-published values are shown only where they could be confirmed. The 2025 and 2026 values in the current dataset already come from the newer sensor that will be used for February 2027, so the band weights rest mainly on the current dataset values.
Other recent February averages in the current dataset are 2.33 million km² in 2018, 2.65 in 2019, 2.92 in 2020 and 2.89 in 2021.
Year-to-year swings are large. The February average fell from 2.89 million km² in 2021 to 2.21 million km² in 2022, and rose from 2.22 million km² in 2025 to 2.91 million km² in 2026. Over the ten years from 2017 to 2026, the average year-to-year change, up or down, was about 0.30 million km² (Centre calculation from the official series).
The 2026 season
- A summer rebound. The February 2026 average of 2.91 million km² was the highest since 2020 and broke a run of four Februaries ranging from 1.98 to 2.22 million km². The 2026 annual minimum, 2.58 million km² on 26 February (five-day average), was well above the record low.
- A weak winter. Extent stayed near record low levels for most of the 2026 growth season, below the usual range from late March, though above 2023. The winter maximum, 17.59 million km² on 14 September, is the third lowest on record (a preliminary figure as of 23 September 2026). The September average, 17.32 million km², was 1.17 million km² below the 1981–2010 average.
- A fast early retreat. After the maximum, extent fell sharply, with losses in the Ross and Amundsen seas and the Indian Ocean sector. Daily extent set record lows for the date in early October 2026, below 2023. By 29 October, extent was 15.88 million km², second lowest for the date behind 2023 and 1.67 million km² below the 1981–2010 average for the date (Centre calculation from the official daily data).
Forces pulling extent down
- A low starting point for the melt season. Extent in October 2026 is close to the 2023 record for the time of year. After the record-low October of 2023, February 2024 came in at 2.19 million km², the second lowest February on record.
- A run of low years. Antarctic extent has been below average in all seasons for most of the past decade, and four of the five lowest Februaries have come since 2022.
Forces holding extent up
- Summer weather. Winds and storms during the southern summer can spread the ice out or hold it in place. The 2026 rebound shows that a weak previous winter does not settle the February result: the October 2025 average, 16.96 million km², was the third lowest October on record, yet February 2026 came in at 2.91 million km².
- No clear long-term trend. The February trend since 1979 is small and not statistically significant, and some sectors around the continent have stayed above average even in recent low years.
Scenarios: the February 2027 average Antarctic sea ice extent
Resolution rule: the February 2027 monthly average Antarctic (Southern Hemisphere) sea ice extent, in million km², from the official national snow and ice data series, as first published, expected in early March 2027. Later reprocessing and revisions do not count. If the published value carries more than two decimals, it is rounded half-up once to two decimals before banding: 2.295 counts as 2.30. A value on an edge falls in the higher band: 2.00 is in band 2, 2.30 is in band 3, 2.60 is in band 4 and 2.90 is in band 5. If no February 2027 monthly average has been published by 31 March 2027, the forecast resolves on the Centre's simple mean of the 28 daily February 2027 extent values published in the same series, as shown on 1 April 2027, rounded the same way. If the series is replaced by a new version before resolution, the successor version's first-published February 2027 average is used. If neither a monthly average nor a full set of daily February values has been published by 30 June 2027, the forecast is withdrawn. The last revision of these probabilities is at 23:59 UTC+4 on 31 January 2027. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
Below 2.00 million km²
This band means a new record low February, or one level with 2023. It would need a summer melt as strong as in 2023, acting on an ice cover that starts the season close to the 2023 record. The very low October 2026 extent makes this outcome clearly possible, but only one February in the record has fallen this low.
2.00 to 2.29 million km²
This is the most likely band. It holds the values of 2017, 2022, 2024 and 2025, the most common level of the past decade. It is also where February 2024 landed after the record-low spring of 2023, the closest match to the present season. The weight is the Centre's judgement, combining how often recent years fell here with the low starting point for the 2026–27 melt season.
2.30 to 2.59 million km²
This band covers a moderate recovery, close to the 2018 value of 2.33 million km². It fits a summer with average conditions around the continent, so that the ice cover loses less area than in the low years since 2022.
2.60 to 2.89 million km²
This band includes the values of 2019 and 2021. It would need a summer that holds the ice well, as in 2026, despite a weak start to the season.
2.90 million km² or more
This band would need a repeat of the 2026 rebound or more, at the level of 2020 and 2026. February 2026 shows that it can happen after a low October, but the much lower starting point this year argues against a larger weight.
What to watch
- Monthly averages from the official satellite record: early each month, starting with the October 2026 average in early November 2026.
- The pace of spring retreat: whether daily extent in November and December 2026 stays at or below the 2023 levels for the time of year.
- Summer weather around Antarctica: winds, storms and air temperatures from December 2026 to February 2027.
- Regional patterns: whether the Ross, Amundsen and Weddell seas lose their ice early or hold it.
- The 2027 annual minimum: usually reached in late February or early March, with a preliminary announcement soon after; the February 2027 average follows in early March 2027 (resolves).
Figures as of 31 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.