Uprooted: The Global Displacement Outlook for 2027

Key figures (as of October 2026)

How displacement is counted

"Forcibly displaced" covers four groups: refugees who have crossed a border, asylum-seekers waiting for a decision, other people in need of international protection, and internally displaced people who have fled within their own country. The global total is a snapshot of how many people remain displaced on a given date. It is different from the number of movements in a year, which counts every new or repeated flight. A country can therefore record millions of new displacements in a year while its total still falls, if even more people return home.

The picture in late 2026

A historic wave of returns. The global total fell from about 123.2 million at end-2024 to 117.8 million at end-2025. The main reason was returns: 14.7 million people went back to their areas or countries of origin in 2025, about 50% more than in 2024 and one of the highest numbers of returns on record. Refugee returns were the second highest in sixty years. The largest numbers went to six countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (3.6 million), Sudan (3.5 million), Syria (3.3 million), Afghanistan (2 million), Ukraine (about 718,000) and Myanmar (about 415,000).

Returns are not the same as recovery. Many people went home under pressure or to places where homes, services and livelihoods are badly damaged. Long-term displacement remains the norm: about 7 in 10 refugees have been in exile for years.

More flight, not less. While the stock of displaced people fell, the flow of new displacement rose sharply. Conflict and violence triggered a record 32.3 million internal movements in 2025, more than double the ten-year average. Disasters added another 29.9 million. Counting both causes, about 82.2 million people were living in internal displacement at end-2025.

The largest situations.

• Sudan remains the world's largest internal displacement crisis. About 8.6 million people were displaced inside the country at end-September 2026, down from 11.58 million in January 2025 as about 5.27 million people returned, more than half of them to Khartoum. New displacement continues in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile. About 56% of the internally displaced are children.
• Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan remain, with Sudan, among the leading countries of origin for refugees, while Syria and Afghanistan are also two of the largest return destinations.
• The Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded one of the largest flows of new displacement in 2025 alongside one of the largest return movements.

Funding has fallen sharply. The global refugee agency had received about $3 billion of the $8.5 billion it needs for 2026, roughly a third. It has lost about 8,000 staff since 2024, and so far in 2026 it has responded to 22 emergencies in 18 countries.

Drivers for 2027

Four forces will shape the 2027 numbers:

1. Returns. Continued returns to Sudan, Syria and Afghanistan could keep pulling the total down. A new international goal aims to halve, by 2035, the number of refugees in long-term displacement who depend on aid.
2. New emergencies. The record level of conflict-related displacement in 2025 shows how quickly a few crises can add millions. Most new flight stays inside national borders.
3. Funding. Lower funding weakens support for both displaced people and returnees, and makes returns harder to sustain.
4. Peace processes. Progress in a handful of the largest conflicts would allow millions more people to go home safely.

Scenarios for the global total

The question: in the official end-2026 global total, published in mid-2027, will forced displacement be lower, about the same, or higher than end-2025's 117.8 million? Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates.

How this resolves: the value is the official end-2026 global headline total of forcibly displaced people, in millions, published around June 2027, taken to one decimal place and rounded half up. The five bands have exact edges: below 112.0 million; 112.0 to below 115.0 million; 115.0 to 121.0 million inclusive; above 121.0 up to and including 124.0 million; and above 124.0 million. A value exactly on an edge falls in the band that includes it as stated, so 115.0 and 121.0 are in the plateau band, 112.0 is in the second band and 124.0 is in the fourth band. The edges at 112 and 124 are the Centre's own reference points: a fall the size of 2025's (5.4 million) would leave the total at about 112.4 million, and 124 million is just above the end-2024 level of about 123.2 million. If the end-2026 total has not been published by 31 December 2027, the forecast is withdrawn.

Scenarios revised on 30 October 2026 to a finer split.

What to watch

1. The preliminary mid-2026 global figures, due in late 2026, as an early signal of the direction of travel.
2. Sudan's monthly displacement and return updates: whether returns keep outpacing new flight.
3. Ceasefire and peace talks in the largest conflicts, which determine whether returns can be safe and lasting.
4. 2027 humanitarian appeals and how much of them is funded in the first quarter.
5. Return conditions in Syria and Afghanistan, including housing, services and jobs.
6. Disaster seasons: storms and floods add millions of internal displacements each year.

Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.