Made in the UAE: Non-Oil Foreign Trade and Exports in 2026

Key figures (as of October 2026)

A trillion-dollar trading nation

In 2025 the UAE's non-oil foreign trade passed US$1 trillion for the first time, reaching about AED 3.8 trillion. That was 27% more than in 2024 and almost double the 2021 level. The fourth quarter alone brought AED 1.1 trillion, the first quarter in the country's history above AED 1 trillion, up 33.1% on the fourth quarter of 2024. Re-exports rose 15.7% to AED 830.2 billion, and non-oil imports rose 25.7% to more than AED 2.1 trillion, reflecting the UAE's role as a global trade hub.

Exports lead the way

Non-oil exports have become the fastest-growing part of UAE trade. They reached AED 813.8 billion in 2025, up 45.5% on 2024 and 85% on 2023, and passed the AED 800 billion goal set for 2031 five years early. The fourth quarter of 2025 set a quarterly record of AED 234.4 billion, up 53.2% on the fourth quarter of 2024 and 12% on the third quarter of 2025. Exports rose to 21.6% of all non-oil trade in 2025, from 18.8% in 2024 and 14.1% in 2019, a sign of a growing base of goods made in the UAE.

The main non-oil exports include gold and jewellery, aluminium, plastics such as ethylene and propylene polymers, copper wire and perfumes. Gold is the largest single item: it made up 69.3% of non-oil exports in the first quarter of 2026, so the value of exports moves with the value of gold traded.

A record first half in 2026

The first half of 2026 set new records. Non-oil foreign trade reached AED 1.937 trillion, up 13.1% on the first half of 2025, and non-oil exports reached AED 452.8 billion, up 23.9% on the first half of 2025 and 77.3% on the first half of 2024. Exports rose to 23.4% of non-oil trade, from 21.3% a year earlier. The first quarter alone brought exports of AED 225.4 billion, up 31.5% on the first quarter of 2025, and growth for the half year as a whole was slower than in the first quarter. China, Switzerland and India were the UAE's largest trading partners, with trade of AED 180.7 billion, AED 138.4 billion and AED 107.5 billion. Gold remained the leading item in non-oil trade, at AED 706.2 billion, up 48.8% on the first half of 2025.

Momentum has continued since the summer. The main monthly survey of the UAE's non-oil private sector reached a 20-month high of 55.3 in August 2026 and held there in September, with new export orders rising for a third month in a row and at the fastest pace since November 2024.

A widening network of partners

The UAE's programme of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, launched in September 2021, had produced 38 signed agreements by August 2026, with 18 in force by July 2026. On 27 October 2026 the UAE and Canada signed the first such agreement between the UAE and a G7 member, after negotiations that took 47 days. Talks continue with around 20 more countries.

The agreements are opening markets for UAE goods. In 2025, exports to the 14 partners whose agreements were in force by the end of the year reached AED 175.5 billion, up 18.2% on 2024. In the first half of 2026, non-oil trade with in-force partners reached AED 304.3 billion, including UAE exports of AED 66.1 billion. Exports now make up 21.7% of trade with these partners, up from 19.1% in 2022.

The Centre's study of the CEPA network carries a separate forecast on total non-oil foreign trade in 2026. This study looks at the export side.

What it means

The UAE's trade is increasingly built on goods it makes and sells itself, with exports above the 2031 goal five years early and a rising share of total trade. A further record in 2026 is very likely: on the Centre's own calculation, second-half exports would need to fall about 20% below the first-half record for the year to end below 2025. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on AED 900 billion or more is 75%.

Scenarios: the UAE's non-oil exports in 2026

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.

The variable is the value of the UAE's non-oil exports for calendar year 2026, in AED billion, as first announced by the federal government in its official full-year 2026 non-oil foreign trade results, expected in early 2027. Later revisions are ignored. A figure given in AED trillion is converted to AED billion, so AED 1.02 trillion counts as AED 1,020 billion. The most precise official AED figure is used; if the AED figure is only rounded, the official US-dollar figure converted at AED 3.6725 is used, but only if it is published more precisely than the AED figure. The figure is rounded half up to a whole AED billion, once, before it is placed in a band, so AED 949.5 billion counts as AED 950 billion and AED 949.4 billion counts as AED 949 billion. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly AED 850 billion falls in band 2, exactly AED 900 billion in band 3, exactly AED 950 billion in band 4 and exactly AED 1,000 billion in band 5. If no official full-year 2026 figure is published by 31 December 2027, the forecast is withdrawn.

On the Centre's own calculation, if second-half exports simply match the first-half record of AED 452.8 billion, the full year comes to about AED 906 billion, already 11% above the AED 813.8 billion of 2025.

What to watch

1. Nine-month and full-year 2026 results: the official trade releases, the clearest guide to the final figure.
2. Gold: the value of gold traded, the largest single item in non-oil exports.
3. Export orders: whether the monthly business survey keeps showing rising new export business.
4. New agreements: the entry into force of signed agreements, including the Philippines, Nigeria, Kenya and Canada.
5. Export share: whether exports keep rising as a share of non-oil trade.
6. Leading partners: trade with China, Switzerland and India.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.