Ghaf Centre for Studies & ResearchGCSR
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Food Security

Global food supply, prices and the outlook for hunger and humanitarian needs.

Food SecurityWorld
Food SecurityWorldOctober 2026

Will Famine Spread in 2027?

The number of people facing catastrophic hunger fell sharply in 2026, but drought, funding gaps and fragile access leave three countries at active risk of famine going into 2027.

Most likely: One country
50%
Food SecurityUAE & Gulf
Food SecurityUAE & GulfOctober 2026

Growing in the Desert: The UAE's Food-Tech and Vertical-Farming Build-Out

The UAE is using technology to grow more of its food at home. Under the national food strategy to 2051, it has backed AgTech firms with incentives, opened one of the world's largest vertical farms and set aside a dedicated food-tech district in Dubai. In Abu Dhabi, greenhouses now produce most of the vegetables. Their output rose 29% in 2024 to more than 142,000 tonnes, or 85.6% of the emirate's vegetable harvest. In October 2026 the strategy was being updated with a new aim: grow half of the country's crops locally.

Most likely: 85.0% to 87.4%
25%
Food SecurityGlobal
Food SecurityGlobal30 October 2026

Global Food Commodity Prices 2027: Annual Average Outlook

World food commodity prices have risen through 2026. The main international monthly index of world food commodity prices (2014–2016 = 100) averaged 122.0 points in 2024 and 127.2 points in 2025, and reached 136.0 points in September 2026, 5.8% higher than a year earlier but 15.1% below its March 2022 peak. Vegetable oils, cereals and sugar have led the rise, while dairy prices have fallen sharply. A likely strong-to-very strong El Niño, high energy, fertiliser and freight costs, and disrupted grain shipments point to firm prices into 2027, while a large cereal harvest, easing energy prices and the likely end of El Niño by mid-2027 argue for some relief. The Centre's central estimate for the 2027 annual average of the index is 133.0 to 140.9 points, with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.

Most likely: 133.0 to 140.9 points
34%