Ghaf Centre for Studies & ResearchGCSR
Home / Energy

Energy

Oil, gas, power and the energy transition, from supply balances to prices.

Energy & MarketsWorld
Energy & MarketsWorldOctober 2026

Oil in 2027: From Shock to Surplus?

After a major supply shock in 2026, the 2027 oil market is widely expected to swing into surplus, but depleted stocks and a fragile recovery mean the path down from today's prices may be uneven.

Most likely: Average above $95
33%
EnergyGulf & World
EnergyGulf & WorldOctober 2026

LNG and the Gulf Gas Expansion to 2030

Gulf producers supplied about 22% of record world LNG trade in 2025, and with Qatar building towards about 142 million tonnes a year and the UAE's Ruwais LNG due in 2028, the region is set to remain a cornerstone of global gas supply to 2030.

Most likely: 1 October to 31 December 2028
35%
EnergyWorld
EnergyWorldOctober 2026

The Solar Reset: Global Solar Capacity Added in 2027

The world added a record 511 GW of solar power capacity in 2025, three quarters of all new renewable capacity, after 452 GW in 2024 and 345.5 GW in 2023. In 2026 the market is set for its first annual fall in two decades, because installations in China have dropped sharply after a change to how new solar power is priced. Industry outlooks expect growth to resume in 2027, and the question is how far global additions recover, and whether they return to the 2025 record.

Most likely: 450 GW to under 500 GW
32%
EnergyGulf & World
EnergyGulf & WorldOctober 2026

Through the Strait: Oil Flows via Hormuz in 2027

The Strait of Hormuz is the main sea route for oil exports from the Gulf. In 2025 an average of about 21.2 million barrels a day of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products passed through it, on the Centre's own calculation from official US energy statistics quarterly figures. Flows in 2026 have been far below that level, and official outlooks expect most of the region's oil output to return to its early-2026 average by the middle of 2027. At the same time, the UAE is adding export pipeline capacity to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. This study asks what average daily volume of oil passes through the strait in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: 17.0 to under 19.0 million barrels a day
34%
EnergyGlobal
EnergyGlobal31 October 2026

Wind Power in 2027: Global Capacity Added

The world added 158.7 GW of wind power capacity in 2025, onshore and offshore together, according to the first figures of the intergovernmental renewables statistics body. That was 40.2% more than the 113.2 GW it first reported for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and the largest annual addition in its tables, which go back to 2016. China supplied about three quarters of the 2025 total. The international wind industry trade body expects new installations to reach 178 GW in 2026 and 186.5 GW in 2027 on its own count, which runs a little higher than the statistics body's. This study asks how much wind capacity the statistics body could first report as added worldwide in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: 160 GW to under 180 GW
31%
EnergyGlobal
EnergyGlobal31 October 2026

Global Nuclear Power Capacity in 2027

At the end of 2025, 413 nuclear power reactors were in operation worldwide, with a total net capacity of 377.1 gigawatts electric (GWe), according to the UN nuclear energy agency's annual reactor report, published in September 2026. On 31 October 2026 the agency's official reactor database showed 417 reactors in operation with 379.6 GWe. World capacity has grown slowly over the past decade, by about 1.7 GWe a year on average, as new reactors in Asia have outweighed retirements elsewhere. This study asks what the world's operating nuclear capacity could be on 31 December 2027.

Most likely: 381.0 to below 384.0 GWe
35%