Water from the Sea: The UAE's Desalination Capacity to 2036
The UAE is moving its desalination fleet from heat-hungry thermal plants to reverse osmosis powered increasingly by solar and other clean energy. Abu Dhabi expects about 92% of its water to come from reverse osmosis by 2030, and Dubai plans for all desalinated water to be produced with clean energy and waste heat by the same year.
The Warmest Years: Global Temperature Outlook for 2027
The three warmest years on record are 2023, 2024 and 2025, with 2024 the warmest at about 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. A very strong El Niño has been building in the tropical Pacific through 2026, and El Niño's effect on global temperature usually peaks in the year after it forms. Most published outlooks therefore expect 2027 to become the warmest year on record. We put that at 85%, with the main uncertainty being how quickly the event fades.
Arctic Sea Ice 2027: The September Minimum Outlook
Arctic sea ice shrinks each summer and reaches its smallest extent in September. In the official satellite record, which began in 1979, the September average extent was 4.81 million km² in 2026, the thirteenth lowest on record and 1.60 million km² below the 1981–2010 average of 6.41 million km². The record low, 3.57 million km², was set in 2012. The long-term September trend through 2026 is a loss of 74,100 km² a year, or 11.6% per decade. September extent in 2025 and 2026 stayed above the lows of 2020, 2023 and 2024, helped in 2026 by a cool, stormy summer over the Arctic Ocean, even though the winter maximum in both years was the lowest on record. The Centre's most likely band for the September 2027 average is 4.50 to 4.79 million km², with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2027: How Many Storms in the Official Tally?
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet. By 30 October 2026 it had produced 10 named storms, one hurricane and one major hurricane, three named storms fewer than normal for the date, with a strong El Niño, which tends to raise wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. The 1991–2020 average is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes a season. Recent seasons have ranged from 13 named storms in 2025 to a record 30 in 2020. Official outlooks expect El Niño to stay strong through early 2027 and then to fade, with neutral conditions favoured by May to July 2027. A fading El Niño tends to remove the main brake on Atlantic storm formation. The variable is the number of tropical and subtropical storms in the first-published end-of-season tally for 2027. The Centre's most likely band is 13 to 15 storms, with substantial probability on a busier season.