Key figures (as of 30 October 2026)
| Named storms in the 2026 season, to 30 October | 10, three fewer than the 1991–2020 normal for the date |
| Hurricanes and major hurricanes in 2026, to 30 October | 1 hurricane, which became the season's only major hurricane |
| Accumulated cyclone energy, 2026 season to 30 October | 19.7 units, 83% below the 1991–2020 normal |
| Average season, 1991–2020 | 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes |
| Record season | 30 named storms, in 2020 |
| Chance of El Niño, January to March 2027 | 100%, with a strong-to-very strong event likely (more than 83%) |
| Chance of El Niño / neutral / La Niña, May to July 2027 | 17% / 70% / 13% |
The measure and how it is counted
A named storm is a tropical or subtropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h). The official count of named storms includes both tropical storms and subtropical storms: subtropical storms are named from the same list and appear in the season tally. In 2026, for example, Subtropical Storm Josephine in late October became the tenth named storm of the season.
The official Atlantic season runs from 1 June to 30 November, but the official tally covers every storm that forms in the basin during the calendar year. Storms before 1 June are counted: in 2020, two named storms formed in May, and both are in that season's total of 30.
At the start of December each year, the official regional forecasting centre publishes its first end-of-season tally. Storms are later re-examined in post-season analysis, and the record can change. The 2020 season was first published with 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes; after post-season analysis the record now shows 14 and 7, while the named-storm count stayed at 30. In 2023, the first-published tally of 20 storms included a subtropical storm from January that was identified only in post-season analysis and never received a name. This study resolves on the first-published tally.
Recent seasons
| Season | Named storms | Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 30 | 13 | 6 |
| 2021 | 21 | 7 | 4 |
| 2022 | 14 | 8 | 2 |
| 2023 | 20 | 7 | 3 |
| 2024 | 18 | 11 | 5 |
| 2025 | 13 | 5 | 4 |
| 2026, to 30 October | 10 | 1 | 1 |
Values as first published at the end of each season. The 2025 figures are from the official end-of-season statement of late November 2025 and match the current record. The 2026 season ends on 30 November 2026.
In the official classification of seasons since 1951, below-normal seasons have produced 4 to 14 named storms, near-normal seasons 6 to 18, and above-normal seasons 11 to 30. The count of named storms alone therefore does not settle how active a season was: 2025 produced only 13 named storms, but four became major hurricanes, three of them reaching category 5.
The 2026 season
- A slow start. The first named storm formed on 17 June, and only one more formed before 12 August.
- No hurricane until October. Eight tropical storms formed before the first hurricane of the season, which formed in early October and became a major hurricane.
- El Niño at work. Official outlooks issued in May and August 2026 expected a below-normal season, citing the developing El Niño, which tends to raise vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea and to suppress storm formation.
- A low energy total. Accumulated cyclone energy, which combines the strength and duration of storms, stood at 19.7 units on 30 October, 83% below the 1991–2020 normal.
Forces pointing to more storms in 2027
- El Niño expected to fade. The official outlook issued on 8 October 2026 gives El Niño a 45% chance for April to June 2027 and 17% for May to July 2027, with neutral conditions favoured (70%) by May to July. La Niña, which tends to lower wind shear over the Atlantic and to favour storm formation, has a 13% chance for May to July 2027; outlooks for the August to October peak are not yet available.
- Recent experience after strong El Niño events. The season that followed the very strong El Niño of 2015–16 produced 15 named storms, and the season that followed the strong El Niño of 2023–24 produced 18.
- An active era. Every season from 2020 to 2025 produced at least 13 named storms, and 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 each produced 18 or more.
- Warm Atlantic waters. The official outlook of May 2026 expected slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters for the 2026 season. In 2023, record-warm Atlantic waters helped produce 20 named storms despite a strong El Niño, the most named storms of any El Niño year in the modern record.
Forces pointing to fewer storms
- A slow end to El Niño. El Niño is near-certain to persist through early 2027 and still has a 17% chance for May to July 2027. If it fades slowly or returns, wind shear over the Atlantic may stay high into the peak months, as in 2026.
- Other Atlantic conditions. Dry air, dust and wind shear vary from year to year and cannot be forecast this far ahead.
- Year-to-year swings. The count fell from 21 in 2021 to 14 in 2022, and from 18 in 2024 to 13 in 2025. Seasons with similar climate signals can still produce very different counts.
Scenarios: tropical and subtropical storms in the first-published 2027 end-of-season tally
Resolution rule: the number of tropical and subtropical storms in the first-published end-of-season tally, counting every storm in that tally whether or not it received a name, that form in the North Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea, in calendar year 2027, as given in the official regional forecasting centre's first-published end-of-season tally, expected in early December 2027 after the season closes on 30 November. If no official end-of-season tally is issued on or after 30 November 2027 by 31 January 2028, the official end-of-season statement issued in late November 2027 is used. Storms that form after the tally used was issued are not counted. Storms that form before 1 June 2027 count if they form in calendar year 2027 and are included in the official tally; a storm counts in the year in which it forms. Storms are counted only as they appear in that first-published tally; no storm is added to it by the Centre. Later post-season analysis and reanalysis changes are ignored. If no official end-of-season tally for 2027 has been published by 31 March 2028, the forecast is withdrawn. Probabilities may be revised on official, dated evidence until 31 May 2027, and not after. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
12 or fewer storms
This band covers a quiet season, like 2026. It would need El Niño to fade slowly or to return, or other Atlantic conditions, such as dry air, dust or cooler tropical waters, to keep wind shear and stability high through the August to October peak. No season from 2020 to 2025 fell this low, but the current El Niño and the 2026 result keep this band real.
13 to 15 storms
This is the most likely band. It includes the 1991–2020 average of 14.4 and the counts of 2016, 2022 and 2025. It fits a season with neutral conditions in the Pacific and near-normal conditions in the Atlantic, in which the end of El Niño removes the main brake on storm formation without a strong push from La Niña. The weight is the Centre's judgement.
16 to 18 storms
This band covers a moderately active season, like 2024. It fits a case in which neutral conditions turn towards La Niña by late summer and Atlantic waters stay warm, lowering wind shear in the main development region. The season after the 2023–24 El Niño landed here, which supports a weight close to that of band 2.
19 to 21 storms
This band covers a clearly active season, like 2021 and 2023. It would need La Niña or a strongly favourable Atlantic pattern by the peak months, with warm waters across the tropical Atlantic. The 13% La Niña chance for May to July 2027 and the active era keep this band substantial.
22 or more storms
This band would need a hyperactive season. Only 2020, with 30 named storms, has reached this level in recent years. It would need an early and clear shift to La Niña together with very warm Atlantic waters. The likely slow fade of a very strong El Niño argues against a larger weight. Three of the six seasons from 2020 to 2025 reached 19 or more storms, yet bands 4 and 5 carry less weight than that rate. The reason is the outlook for early 2027: official outlooks favour neutral conditions for May to July 2027, with only a 13% chance of La Niña, and the season follows a very strong El Niño, whereas the busiest recent seasons came with La Niña or record-warm Atlantic waters.
What to watch
- The end of the 2026 season: the season closes on 30 November 2026, and the first-published end-of-season tally for 2026 is expected in early December 2026.
- Monthly El Niño outlooks: on the second Thursday of each month, next on 12 November 2026. The first outlooks covering the August to October 2027 peak are the key signal.
- The first seasonal outlooks for 2027: the earliest extended-range outlooks usually appear in December, with further outlooks in April and late May 2027, before the revision cut-off of 31 May 2027.
- Atlantic waters in spring 2027: temperatures across the tropical Atlantic from March to May 2027.
- Storms before 1 June 2027: any early-season storm counts towards the 2027 total.
- The first-published 2027 end-of-season tally: expected in early December 2027 (resolves).
Figures as of 30 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.