Key figures (as of 29 October 2026)
| Afternoon price, annual average, 2024 | USD 2,386.20 per troy ounce |
| Afternoon price, annual average, 2025 | USD 3,431.54, up 43.8% on 2024 |
| Afternoon price, average from 1 January to 29 October 2026 | USD 4,501.65, up 31.2% on the 2025 average, on the Centre's own calculation |
| Afternoon price, average for the first quarter of 2026 | USD 4,872.9 |
| Afternoon price, average for the second quarter of 2026 | USD 4,506.29, down 8% on the first quarter and up 37% on the second quarter of 2025 |
| Afternoon price, average for the third quarter of 2026 | USD 4,262.18, on the Centre's own calculation |
| Afternoon price, average for October 2026 to the 29th | USD 4,115.65, down 4.8% on September 2026 and 18.0% on February 2026, on the Centre's own calculation |
| Afternoon price, 29 October 2026 | USD 4,026.30, down 7.8% on the last afternoon price of 2025 (USD 4,367.80, 30 December 2025) |
| Highest and lowest afternoon prices in 2026 to 29 October | USD 5,405.00 (29 January) and USD 3,993.55 (16 July) |
| Central bank and other official net gold demand | 2025: 863.3 tonnes (as first reported); first quarter of 2026: 56.5 tonnes; second quarter of 2026: 288.9 tonnes |
| Reported central bank net purchases, 2026 | 39 tonnes in August; 170 tonnes from January to August |
| Official outlook, October 2026 | gold price USD 4,600 in 2026 and USD 4,250 in 2027 (lender's own spot series) |
A sharp rise, then an easing
The afternoon price rose 43.8% in 2025 compared with 2024, from an average of USD 2,386.20 to USD 3,431.54. The fourth quarter of 2025 averaged USD 4,135.2. The rise continued into early 2026: the first quarter averaged USD 4,872.9, and the highest afternoon price of the year so far, USD 5,405.00, came on 29 January. The morning auction reached USD 5,501.70 the same day.
Since then the price has eased. The second quarter averaged USD 4,506.29, 8% below the first quarter, and the third quarter averaged USD 4,262.18 on the Centre's own calculation. The lowest afternoon price of 2026 to 29 October was USD 3,993.55 on 16 July. A rebound took the price to USD 4,663.70 on 24 August before it eased to USD 4,176.30 on 30 September.
| Month (2026) | Average afternoon price, USD per troy ounce |
|---|---|
| January | 4,744.46 |
| February | 5,019.53 |
| March | 4,862.17 |
| April | 4,723.88 |
| May | 4,587.52 |
| June | 4,238.32 |
| July | 4,073.92 |
| August | 4,409.89 |
| September | 4,324.72 |
| October (to the 29th) | 4,115.65 |
Monthly averages are on the Centre's own calculation, from the daily afternoon prices.
October to the 29th has the lowest monthly average of 2026 so far. The price on 29 October, USD 4,026.30, was 10.6% below the 2026 average to date and 17.3% above the 2025 average, on the Centre's own calculation.
Who is buying
Central banks and other official institutions bought a net 863.3 tonnes of gold in 2025, as first reported by the gold industry's market development council, down 21% on the 1,092.4 tonnes of 2024. Some 2025 quarterly figures have since been revised. Official buying slowed to a revised 56.5 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 and recovered to 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter. Monthly reports of central bank holdings show net purchases of 39 tonnes in August 2026 and 170 tonnes from January to August.
Other demand has been mixed. In the second quarter of 2026, bar and coin demand was 307.1 tonnes, down 3% on the second quarter of 2025, and exchange-traded funds saw net outflows of 44.8 tonnes. Jewellery consumption was 278.2 tonnes, down 17% on the second quarter of 2025, as high prices weighed on volumes. In the full year 2025, investment demand was 2,175.3 tonnes, up 84% on 2024.
Gold matters to the Gulf economy. It was the leading item in the UAE's non-oil foreign trade in the first half of 2026, at AED 706.2 billion, up 48.8% on the first half of 2025, a sign of the UAE's strong position in the global gold trade.
The official outlook
In its October 2026 commodity outlook, an international development lender forecast a gold price of about USD 4,600 per troy ounce in 2026, USD 4,250 in 2027 and USD 4,000 in 2028. Its 2027 figure is 7.6% below its 2026 forecast, and 1.2% below the USD 4,300 it forecast for 2027 in April 2026. It expects precious metals prices to moderate somewhat in 2027. The lender uses its own gold series, a spot average of daily rates, which differs slightly from the benchmark: for 2025 it shows USD 3,442, against the benchmark's USD 3,431.54. A July 2026 survey of 16 professional analysts by the market's trade association gave an average forecast of USD 4,604 for 2026 and USD 4,500 for the end of 2026.
What it means
Gold has eased from its early 2026 highs, but the 2026 average to date is still 31.2% above the 2025 average, and official buying recovered in the second quarter of 2026. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on USD 4,000 or more in 2027 is 64%, and the combined weight on USD 4,500 or more is 30%.
Scenarios: the average gold price in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the 2027 average of the benchmark afternoon price as first published by the market's trade association, usually in early 2028. If none is published by 30 June 2028, the Centre's simple mean of all first-published 2027 afternoon prices is used. Withdrawn if neither is available by 31 December 2028. The benchmark is the London afternoon gold auction price, in USD per troy ounce, as published by the market's official price administrator. For the fallback mean, days without an afternoon price, such as holidays and days with only a morning auction, are left out, each day's price is taken as first published, and later corrections are ignored. Averages published by other bodies, forecasts and partial-year averages do not count. The figure is rounded half up to two decimal places, once, before it is placed in a band, so USD 3,999.995 counts as USD 4,000.00. If the benchmark is renamed, rebased, moved to another administrator or replaced by an officially named successor afternoon price before or during 2027, the successor's US-dollar prices are used for the days they cover. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly USD 3,500.00 falls in band 2, exactly USD 4,000.00 in band 3, exactly USD 4,500.00 in band 4 and exactly USD 5,000.00 in band 5.
Deep fall: under USD 3,500
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 average more than 13.1% below the price on 29 October 2026, and close to the 2025 average of USD 3,431.54. It would follow if the easing since February continues through 2027 and investment demand weakens further. Reported official buying was 170 tonnes from January to August 2026, and the official outlook for 2027 is USD 4,250, so the weight is low.
Lower: USD 3,500 to under USD 4,000
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers a 2027 average from 13.1% to 0.7% below the price on 29 October 2026. The price was only just above USD 4,000 on 29 October, and the October average to the 29th was the lowest monthly average of 2026. If the easing of the past eight months carries on into 2027, this band is likely, so it gets a solid weight.
Steady: USD 4,000 to under USD 4,500
This is the most likely band. It holds the price on 29 October 2026, USD 4,026.30, the third-quarter average of USD 4,262.18, the October average to the 29th of USD 4,115.65 and the official outlook for 2027 of USD 4,250. It would follow if prices hold broadly near recent levels, with steady official buying and softer jewellery demand roughly in balance. It gets the highest weight.
Higher: USD 4,500 to under USD 5,000
This band begins just below the 2026 average to 29 October of USD 4,501.65. On the Centre's own calculation, it needs a 2027 average from 11.8% to 24.2% above the price on 29 October 2026. It would follow if investment demand recovers and official buying stays strong, taking prices back to their level of the spring of 2026. That is a real possibility, so the weight is solid.
Much higher: USD 5,000 or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 average at least 24.2% above the price on 29 October 2026. Only February 2026 has averaged above USD 5,000, at USD 5,019.53. The annual average rose 43.8% from 2024 to 2025, which shows that large moves can happen in a single year, so the band keeps some weight. It is well above the official outlook, so the weight is lower.
What to watch
- Daily afternoon prices: the level through late 2026 sets the starting point for 2027.
- Quarterly demand report: the gold industry's market development council's third-quarter 2026 figures, including central bank buying and the quarterly average price, usually published about a month after the quarter ends.
- Monthly central bank statistics: reported official purchases for September 2026 and later months.
- Year-ahead analyst survey: the market's trade association's annual survey of forecasts for the 2027 average, usually published in January.
- Official outlook: the international development lender's next commodity outlook, usually published in April.
Figures as of 29 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.