Key figures (as of October 2026)
| People in high acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above), 2025 | 266 million in 47 countries/territories (22.9% of those analysed) |
| People in Catastrophe (Phase 5), 2025 | about 1.4 million in six countries/territories |
| People expected in Catastrophe (Phase 5) during 2026 | about 327,000 |
| Countries with an active risk of Famine (mid-2026) | 3: Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia |
| Sudan: areas at risk of Famine, Oct 2026 – Jan 2027 | 13 |
| Sudan: people projected in Catastrophe, Jun–Sep 2026 | about 200,000 |
How famine is measured
"Famine" is not a figure of speech in humanitarian analysis. It is the top of the five-phase scale that humanitarian agencies use to classify food insecurity. An area is classified in Famine only when three thresholds are crossed together: at least one in five households faces an extreme lack of food, acute malnutrition among children reaches critical levels, and death rates pass a defined line. An area can be judged at risk of Famine when a credible, plausible scenario would push it over those thresholds. Individual households in Phase 5 ("Catastrophe") can exist even where the area as a whole is not in Famine.
The picture in late 2026
2025 was historic for the wrong reasons. In 2025, Famine was confirmed in two places in the same year, in parts of Sudan and of the Gaza Strip. About 1.4 million people were in Catastrophe across six countries and territories. That is more than nine times the level of a decade earlier.
2026 has brought real improvement. Better access and fewer hostilities in parts of Sudan and in Gaza helped cut the number of people expected to face Catastrophe this year to about 327,000. Conditions in Gaza improved after the October 2025 ceasefire, and the area-wide risk of Famine identified there ran only through mid-April 2026. Seventeen countries and territories recorded improvements between 2025 and August 2026.
The gains are narrow, however. Fifteen countries deteriorated over the same period, notably Bangladesh, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria and Somalia. As of mid-2026, three countries still faced an active risk of Famine.
- Sudan remains the largest concern. About 200,000 people were projected in Catastrophe between June and September 2026, across the 15 areas assessed for that period, and 13 areas are at risk of Famine through January 2027. Severely below-average rains across western Sudan have added drought to displacement. The risk zone now extends to parts of South Darfur, where malnutrition in some displacement camps has already passed the Famine threshold.
- South Sudan had, as of mid-2026, about 73,000 people projected in Catastrophe, with a risk of Famine in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile.
- Somalia was added to the highest-concern list during mid-2026. The risk of Famine in the Burhakaba district of Bay region ran only to June 2026. The latest analysis finds a risk of Famine for displaced people in Baidoa, also in Bay region, in a plausible worst case, with close to 26,000 people projected in Phase 5 from October to December 2026.
- Yemen and north-east Nigeria have pockets of Catastrophe without an active Famine risk designation.
Headwinds for 2027
Three forces point to a harder 2027 than the 2026 headline suggests. First, El Niño conditions are disrupting rainfall in several food-insecure regions. Second, higher energy, freight and fertiliser costs are feeding through to food prices. Third, humanitarian funding has fallen, and data coverage has dropped to its lowest in a decade, which makes early warning harder. The next six-monthly global early-warning outlook, covering December 2026 to May 2027, is due in late November 2026.
Risk tiers: country outlook (as of October 2026)
Risk tiers added on 30 October 2026, extending the study to a country-by-country outlook. The forecast question and bands below are unchanged.
Somalia lines updated on 30 October 2026 to reflect the latest official analysis; the forecast question and bands are unchanged.
Every country and territory sits in one of five tiers, based on the latest official analysis on the five-phase scale and the latest twice-yearly early-warning outlook (June 2026, covering June to November 2026). A country goes in the highest tier whose rule it meets. The tiers describe current risk only and carry no probabilities.
- Tier 1, Famine or risk of Famine: an area is classified in Famine, Famine is confirmed or judged plausible, or the latest analysis finds a risk of Famine.
- Tier 2, Catastrophe: the latest analysis places people in Phase 5 (Catastrophe), with no Famine or risk of Famine finding.
- Tier 3, large Emergency populations: named as a hotspot of highest or very high concern in the latest outlook, with large numbers of people in Phase 4 (Emergency) and no Phase 5 finding. The outlook's very-high-concern group covers places with more than 500,000 people, or over 10% of the population analysed, in Phase 4.
- Tier 4, food crisis: named as another hotspot in the latest outlook, selected for the latest annual joint food-crisis report, or, for a territory the annual report does not list on its own, covered by a current official analysis that finds people in Phase 3 or above.
- Tier 5, low risk: every other country and territory, including all high-income economies. The reason: none is selected for the annual joint food-crisis report or named in the outlook, and the report leaves out high-income economies because they are judged able to cope with shocks without asking for outside food assistance. Some countries in this tier had usable official data but were not among those selected for the annual crisis analysis; their placement follows this rule and is not a judgement of their situation.
| Tier | Country or territory | Latest official finding | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sudan | Risk of Famine in 13 areas; about 200,000 people projected in Phase 5 across 15 areas | Risk: October 2026 to January 2027; Phase 5: June to September 2026 |
| 1 | South Sudan | Risk of Famine in four counties; about 73,000 people projected in Phase 5 | April to July 2026 (latest analysis) |
| 1 | Somalia | Risk of Famine for displaced people in Baidoa, Bay region, in a plausible worst case; close to 26,000 people there projected in Phase 5 | October to December 2026 |
| 2 | Yemen | About 41,000 people in Phase 5 in four districts | September 2025 to February 2026 (latest analysis covering these districts; the 2026 partial analysis covered other areas only) |
| 2 | Nigeria | About 10,300 people projected in Phase 5 in Borno State | June to August 2026 |
| 3 | Gaza Strip | 212,000 people in Phase 4; hotspot of highest concern | April to June 2026, and the same number projected for July to December 2026 |
| 3 | Afghanistan | 3.4 million people in Phase 4, and 5 million projected | 3.4 million: September to October 2026; 5 million: November 2026 to April 2027 |
| 3 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | More than 3.6 million people in Phase 4 | January to June 2026 |
| 3 | Haiti | Around 1.8 million people in Phase 4 | September 2026 to February 2027 |
| 4 | Madagascar | About 3.72 million people projected to face food insecurity in Phase 3 or above | October 2026 to February 2027 |
| 4 | Myanmar | About 12.4 million people faced food insecurity in Phase 3 or above | Nationwide analysis of September 2025 |
| 4 | Mali | About 1.56 million people projected to face food insecurity in Phase 3 or above | June to August 2026 |
| 4 | Lebanon | About 1.24 million people facing food insecurity in Phase 3 or above | April to August 2026 |
| 4 | Somaliland | The current official analysis finds people in Phase 3 or above | July to December 2026 |
| 4 | Algeria (displaced populations), Angola (displaced populations), Bangladesh, Benin (displaced populations), Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire (displaced populations), Cuba, Djibouti, Ecuador (displaced populations), Egypt (refugees), El Salvador, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Iran (displaced populations), Iraq (refugees), Jordan (refugees), Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Malawi, Mauritania, Moldova, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Pakistan, Peru (displaced populations), Republic of the Congo, Rwanda (displaced populations), Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tanzania, Togo (displaced populations), Türkiye (displaced populations), Uganda, Ukraine, Venezuela, West Bank, Zambia, Zimbabwe | Selected for the latest annual joint food-crisis report | 2026 annual report (2025 data); 2026 mid-year update |
| 5 | All other countries and territories | Not selected for the annual joint food-crisis report and not named in the outlook | 2026 annual report (2025 data); June 2026 outlook |
The next twice-yearly outlook, covering December 2026 to May 2027, and new country analyses can move a country between tiers. The table is reviewed when each is released.
Scenarios for 2027
The question: will Famine be formally classified in more places in 2027? Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates.
How this resolves: the count is the number of countries or territories, counted together, in which an area is formally classified in Famine, with the classification confirmed, at any point during calendar year 2027. A provisional count is taken on 31 December 2027 and confirmed by the annual joint food-crisis report, expected around April 2028. The four bands are exact whole-number counts (none, one, two, three or more), so every outcome falls in exactly one band, no value sits on an edge and no rounding applies. In the band titles below, "country" means a country or territory. If the annual report covering 2027 has not been published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
Scenarios revised on 30 October 2026 to a finer split.
Retreat: no country
Access continues to improve, harvests in calmer areas provide relief, and assistance reaches the worst-hit communities in time. No area is classified in Famine at any point in 2027. The 2026 fall in Catastrophe numbers shows this is achievable, but the margin is thin.
Contained: one country
The risk of Famine persists in Sudan and possibly in South Sudan or Somalia, but formal Famine classification is confined to a single country. Catastrophe numbers stay well below the 2025 peak. This is the base case because the largest drivers, local access and lean-season stress, are concentrated in a few areas already under close watch.
Spread: two countries
Drought-driven crop failure in Darfur and Kordofan triggers new displacement. At the same time, funding shortfalls limit the response in the Horn of Africa. Famine is then confirmed in exactly two countries during 2027. This would repeat the 2025 pattern, when Famine was confirmed in two places, and is plausible because malnutrition in some camps is already above the Famine line. It takes most of the weight of the wider spread outcomes because it matches the most severe recent year.
Wider spread: three or more countries
Famine is confirmed in three or more countries during 2027. Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia all faced an active risk of Famine in mid-2026, so the path exists. It would, however, need every at-risk country to cross all three thresholds within the same year, or a new country to join them, which goes beyond even the two places recorded in 2025. The weight is therefore small.
What to watch
- Sudan's lean season (from around May 2027): whether drought displacement pushes South Darfur and North Darfur over the thresholds.
- New country analyses: updated projections for South Sudan and Yemen, which were missing for the second half of 2026.
- The late-November 2026 early-warning outlook: which countries are listed as of "highest concern".
- Humanitarian funding levels: the 2027 appeals and how much of them is funded in the first quarter.
- Rainfall forecasts: the evolution of El Niño and its effect on East African and Sahel seasons.
Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.