The GLP-1 Wave: How Weight-Loss Drugs Could Reshape Global Health by 2030
GLP-1 medicines have moved from a diabetes niche to one of the largest drug classes in the world, with new pills, cheaper generic semaglutide in several markets and fast-growing factory capacity. Even so, global health guidance expects them to reach fewer than 10% of the people who could benefit by 2030, so supply and price will shape their public-health impact.
The Polio Endgame: Wild Poliovirus Cases in 2027
Wild poliovirus now circulates in only two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and of its three types only type 1 remains. Over the past six years, annual case counts have ranged from 6 to 140. As of 25 October 2026, official surveillance had confirmed 49 cases in 2026: 42 in Afghanistan and 7 in Pakistan. Pakistan's cases and positive wastewater samples have fallen sharply, while cases in Afghanistan have risen. The global eradication programme's extended timeline targets the end of 2027 for wild poliovirus, the year this study forecasts. The Centre's central estimate is 30 to 59 cases, with real probability on both a sharp fall and a rebound.
Measles Worldwide: Reported Cases in 2027
Measles is one of the most contagious vaccine-preventable diseases, and reported cases have risen well above their pandemic-era lows. The official global annual total of reported measles cases was 669,083 in 2023, 476,412 in 2024 and 411,913 in 2025. Provisional monthly data show 2026 running above 2025. Global coverage with the first vaccine dose has held at 84%, and with the second dose at 77%, both short of the 95% two-dose level needed to stop transmission. The Centre's central estimate for the official 2027 global total is 450,000 to 649,999 reported cases, with substantial probability on a quieter year.
Malaria Worldwide: Estimated Cases in 2027
Malaria remains a major cause of illness and death worldwide, and most of its burden falls on young children in Africa. The official annual global malaria estimate put cases at 282 million in 2024, up about 9 million (3%) on 2023, and deaths at 610,000. New tools are spreading: malaria vaccines are now part of routine immunization in 25 African countries, and new nets, tests and the first treatment for newborns have been approved. At the same time, international health aid fell sharply in 2025, partial resistance to the core antimalarial drug is confirmed in four African countries, and a very strong El Niño is under way. The Centre's central estimate for the official 2027 global figure is 295 to 309 million cases, with substantial probability on both a lower and a higher outcome.