Oil in 2027: From Shock to Surplus?
After a major supply shock in 2026, the 2027 oil market is widely expected to swing into surplus, but depleted stocks and a fragile recovery mean the path down from today's prices may be uneven.
Growth in 2027: The Gulf and the World Economy Outlook
The world economy is expected to pick up modestly in 2027, while Gulf economies are set for a strong rebound as energy output and trade normalise, with the UAE's growth forecasts ranging from 7.7% to 10.4%.
Recession Probabilities 2027: The World Economy and the G20
No G20 economy contracted in 2025, and in the main international financial institution's October 2026 outlook database not one of the 19 national members of the G20 is projected to show a fall in real GDP in 2027. World growth is projected at 3.4% in 2027, up from 3.1% in 2026. The margins are thin in places: four members are projected to grow by less than 1% in 2027, and the outlook names a longer conflict, a reassessment of artificial intelligence and fiscal strain as downside risks. This study asks how many G20 economies show a decline in real GDP in calendar year 2027.
The Gold Price in 2027
The benchmark London afternoon gold auction price averaged USD 3,431.54 per troy ounce in 2025, up 43.8% on the 2024 average of USD 2,386.20. In 2026 the price peaked early and has eased since. Monthly averages fell from USD 5,019.53 in February to USD 4,115.65 in October to the 29th, and the price was USD 4,026.30 on 29 October. Even so, the average for 2026 to 29 October, USD 4,501.65, is 31.2% above the 2025 average. An international development lender forecast in October 2026 that gold prices could average about USD 4,250 in 2027, 7.6% below its forecast for 2026. This study asks what the average afternoon price could be in calendar year 2027.
The Copper Price in 2027
An international development lender's monthly commodity price data put the benchmark exchange's grade A copper price at an average of USD 9,947 per tonne in 2025, up 8.8% on the 2024 average of USD 9,142. In 2026 the price has risen strongly. The September 2026 average was USD 14,474, and the average of the monthly figures from January to September 2026 was USD 13,431, 35.0% above the 2025 average on the Centre's own calculation. In October 2026 the same lender forecast an average of about USD 13,000 in 2027, 1.5% below its forecast for 2026. The international copper statistics body expects the refined copper market to stay in surplus in 2027. This study asks what the lender's annual average copper price could be for calendar year 2027.
Steel in 2027: World Crude Steel Production
The world produced 1,849.4 million tonnes (Mt) of crude steel in 2025, according to the first annual figure of the international steel industry statistics body. That was 1.8% less than the 1,882.6 Mt it first reported for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and the second fall in a row in first-published figures. China made about 52% of the 2025 total. The statistics body expects global steel demand to be little changed in 2026 and to grow by 1.7% in 2027. This study asks how much crude steel the statistics body could first report as produced worldwide in calendar year 2027.
The Silver Price in 2027
The London daily silver benchmark price averaged USD 40.03 per troy ounce in 2025, up 41.6% on the 2024 average of USD 28.27, on the Centre's own calculation. The price peaked early in 2026 and has fallen since. Monthly averages fell from USD 92.13 in January to USD 57.42 in October to the 30th, and the price was USD 50.10 on 30 October. Even so, the average for 2026 to 30 October, USD 71.59, is 78.8% above the 2025 average, on the Centre's own calculation. An international development lender forecast in October 2026 that silver could average about USD 62 in 2027, 11.4% below its forecast for 2026. This study asks what the average benchmark silver price could be in calendar year 2027.
The US Policy Rate at the End of 2027
The US monetary authority raised the target range for its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September 2026, and held it there on 28 October 2026. At the end of 2025 the range was 3.50% to 3.75%. In its latest projections, published in September 2026, the rate-setting committee's median projection for the end of 2027 is 4.1%, which corresponds to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, on the Centre's own reading. Eight of the 18 participants placed the rate higher than that. This study asks what the upper bound of the target range could be on 31 December 2027.