Key figures (as of 31 October 2026)
| World crude steel production, as first reported by the statistics body | 1,888.2 Mt (2023), 1,882.6 Mt (2024), 1,849.4 Mt (2025) |
| Change in production, 2025 compared with 2024, as first reported | down 1.8%, on the Centre's own calculation |
| China, 2025 | 960.8 Mt, down 4.4% on 2024, about 52.0% of the world total, on the Centre's own calculation |
| India, 2025 | 164.9 Mt, up 10.4% on 2024 |
| Statistics body's demand forecast, October 2026 (demand, not production) | 1,722 Mt in 2026, essentially unchanged on 2025; 1,752 Mt in 2027, up 1.7% on 2026 |
| Saudi Arabia, 2025 | 10.8 Mt, up 12.3% on 9.6 Mt in 2024 |
Two years of decline
World crude steel production has eased for two years running. The statistics body first reported 1,888.2 Mt for 2023 and 1,882.6 Mt for 2024, 0.3% less than the 2023 figure, on the Centre's own calculation. Its first figure for 2025, 1,849.4 Mt, was 1.8% below the first figure for 2024, on the Centre's own calculation, and 2.0% below the revised 2024 figure of 1,886.8 Mt carried in the same release.
The statistics body revises earlier years as fuller data arrive. On the Centre's own calculation, its revised figures put 2023 at 1,897.9 Mt, 0.5% above the first figure, and 2024 at 1,886.8 Mt, 0.2% above the first figure. Its annual statistical yearbook, published later in the year, can also differ from the January figure. This study uses only the first-published figure.
China sets the pace
China made 960.8 Mt of crude steel in 2025, 4.4% less than in 2024 and about 52.0% of the world total, on the Centre's own calculation. The statistics body expects Chinese steel demand to fall by 2.0% in 2026 and by 1.0% in 2027, as the property downturn eases only slowly.
Growth outside China
Output elsewhere has been rising. India made 164.9 Mt in 2025, 10.4% more than in 2024.
The statistics body's demand forecast, published in October 2026, covers steel demand rather than production. It expects world demand to be essentially unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 Mt, and to reach 1,752 Mt in 2027, 1.7% above 2026. It expects demand outside China to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and by 4.0% in 2027, and Indian demand to grow by 7.9% in 2026 and 8.0% in 2027. In April 2026 it had expected growth of 2.2% in 2027.
Gulf steel: growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Gulf steelmaking grew in 2025. Saudi Arabia made 10.8 Mt of crude steel, 12.3% more than the 9.6 Mt of 2024. The UAE made 3.8 Mt, 3.3% more than in 2024. The statistics body reports that Gulf steel demand grew by 17.7% in 2025, driven by economic diversification programmes, a healthy project pipeline and strong housing activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it forecasts Gulf demand growth of 11.3% in 2027.
What it means
Global crude steel output has eased for two years, led by lower output in China, while India and other producers outside China keep growing. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on 1,840 Mt or more in 2027 is 60%, and the combined weight on 1,880 Mt or more is 27%.
Scenarios: world crude steel production in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is world crude steel production in calendar year 2027, in million tonnes, as first published by the international steel industry statistics body as its total world figure for 2027. This is usually stated in its press release on monthly output for December, which also carries the annual world total and is issued in late January of the following year, so in about late January 2028, which comes before its annual statistical yearbook. The figure used is the total world crude steel production for 2027 stated in that first release, which includes the body's estimates for countries that report only annually. The total for the monthly reporting countries alone does not count. The figure is stated to one decimal place; if a figure with more decimals is given, it is rounded half up to one decimal place, once, before it is placed in a band, so 1,839.95 Mt counts as 1,840.0 Mt. Only the first-published figure counts. Later revisions, the yearbook, forecasts, partial-year figures and figures from other bodies do not count, except under the fallback below. If the statistics body renames or replaces this release, or rebases its world series, the first-published 2027 world total in the officially named successor release is used. If the statistics body publishes no 2027 world total by 30 June 2028, the world crude steel production figure for 2027 first published by the steel policy forum of the intergovernmental economic policy body is used, rounded the same way; failing that, the sum of first-published official national statistics for 2027, on the Centre's own calculation. Withdrawn if none is available by 31 December 2028. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly 1,800.0 Mt falls in band 2, exactly 1,840.0 Mt in band 3, exactly 1,880.0 Mt in band 4 and exactly 1,920.0 Mt in band 5.
Further decline: under 1,800 Mt
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 figure more than 2.7% below the 2025 figure of 1,849.4 Mt. It would follow if China's output keeps falling at its 2025 pace of 4.4% a year and growth elsewhere slows. The demand forecast points to growth in 2027, so the weight is low, but two years of decline keep it in play.
Mild decline: 1,800 Mt to under 1,840 Mt
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers a 2027 figure from 2.7% to 0.5% below 2025. It would follow if 2027 output stays a little below the 2025 level, with further cuts in China offsetting growth in India and elsewhere. Two falls in a row in first-published world totals make this a real possibility, so the weight is solid.
Return to growth: 1,840 Mt to under 1,880 Mt
This is the most likely band. It holds the 2025 figure and covers a 2027 figure from 0.5% below to 1.7% above 2025, on the Centre's own calculation. Growth of 1.7% on the 2025 figure, in line with the demand forecast for 2027, would put the 2027 figure at about the edge between bands 3 and 4, on the Centre's own calculation. With global demand expected to be essentially unchanged in 2026 and Chinese demand expected to fall in both 2026 and 2027, the Centre places the most likely outcome just below that edge. It gets the highest weight.
Strong growth: 1,880 Mt to under 1,920 Mt
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of 1.7% to 3.8% on 2025, back to about the level first reported for 2023 and 2024. It would follow if China's output steadies while demand outside China grows by the 4.0% the statistics body expects for 2027. China's falling demand makes this less likely than band 3, so the weight is moderate.
Very strong growth: 1,920 Mt or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 figure at least 3.8% above 2025, higher than any first-published world total for 2023 to 2025. It would need a clear rise in Chinese output as well as strong growth elsewhere, which runs against the statistics body's forecast of falling Chinese demand, so the weight is low. Why the demand forecast is not read as a production forecast. The statistics body's forecast covers finished steel demand, which is measured on a different basis from crude steel production. Production also depends on stocks, trade and the yield from crude to finished steel. The Centre applies the forecast growth rates only as a guide, on its own calculation, and found no published forecast of world crude steel production for 2027 to set against the bands.
What to watch
- Monthly production: the statistics body's monthly releases, issued between the 22nd and 26th of each month, with October 2026 data due between 22 and 26 November 2026.
- The 2026 world total: the statistics body's first annual figure for 2026, usually released in late January 2027, as a new base for 2027.
- China: official output figures and any steps to limit steel output in 2027.
- India: the pace of new steelmaking capacity and infrastructure spending.
- Demand forecast update: the statistics body's next demand forecast, usually published in April.
- Gulf steel: output growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the 11.3% growth in Gulf demand the statistics body expects for 2027.
Figures as of 31 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.