Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Parties to the Paris Agreement | 194, as of 27 January 2026 |
| Submitting Parties, with the EU and its 27 member states counted as one | 167 |
| Official mid-round count, 1 January 2024 to 31 August 2026 (published 27 October 2026) | 127 new plans, representing 154 Parties |
| Same count, with the EU and its member states counted as one | 127 of 167 |
| Still to submit at 31 August 2026, with the EU counted as one | about 40 |
| Official count, 1 January 2024 to 30 September 2025 | 64 new plans, representing 64 Parties |
| Due date for the current round | 2025, with target years of 2035 encouraged |
How the current round has unfolded
| Official count | New plans | Parties represented |
|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2024 to 30 September 2025 | 64 | 64 |
| 1 January 2024 to 31 August 2026 | 127 | 154 |
The official report for the period to 31 August 2026 notes that it also takes in three plans received shortly after that cut-off.
The two official counts show how the round has moved. By the end of September 2025, the year the plans were due, 64 new plans had been listed. Eleven months later the count had almost doubled, to 127, with the joint plan of the European Union and its member states listed in November 2025, around the annual climate conference. On the official figures, the number of submitting Parties still to submit fell from about 100 to about 40 in those eleven months. New plans continued to be listed in September and October 2026.
The United Arab Emirates submitted its third national plan in November 2024, ahead of the 2025 due date. It sets a 47% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared with 2019.
What earlier rounds suggest
The previous round of new or updated plans was due in 2020 and extended into 2021. It finished slowly:
| Official count | New or updated plans | All latest plans | Plans not yet updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| As at 23 September 2022 | 142 | 166 | 24 |
| As at 25 September 2023 | 153 | 168 | 15 |
In the year to September 2023, the number of plans not yet updated fell from 24 to 15, a little over a third of those still due. By September 2023, nearly three years after its 2020 due date, the previous round had not reached full coverage.
In the Centre's judgement, the Parties still to submit are a harder group than those already listed. Preparing a full national plan can take longer where there is conflict, displacement or limited administrative capacity, and the previous round left 15 plans not yet updated nearly three years after its due date. Both suggest a slower pace as the remaining group shrinks.
Scenarios: Parties with a new national plan listed by 31 December 2027
Resolution rule: the number of Parties to the Paris Agreement on 31 December 2027 that have at least one document listed in the official registry of national plans as a nationally determined contribution, not counting addenda or translations, with a submission date from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2027 inclusive. This is the start date the official mid-round count uses for new plans. The European Union and its 27 member states, which submit one joint plan, count as one Party. Each Party counts once, however many plans it submits, and plans labelled provisional count if listed as a nationally determined contribution. Submissions by States that are not Parties on 31 December 2027 are not counted. If an official count to 31 December 2027 is published by 31 March 2028, it decides, with the European Union and its member states counted as one. Otherwise the count is taken from the registry as it stands on 31 January 2028, so plans submitted in late December but posted in January are included. Bands use whole numbers, and a value on an edge belongs to the band whose range includes it: 144 is in band 1, 145 is in band 2, 150 is in band 3, 155 is in band 4 and 160 is in band 5. If the count cannot be established from the registry, or from an official count to the same date, by 31 March 2028, the forecast is withdrawn. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, and the weights rest partly on judgement. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
144 or fewer
From the official base of 127 at 31 August 2026, this band means 17 or fewer of the roughly 40 remaining Parties submit in the 16 months to the end of 2027. That is a slower finish than the previous round's late pace, when a little over a third of outstanding plans arrived in a year. The current round has moved much faster than that, and new plans continued to be listed in September and October 2026, so the weight is small. It stays open because the remaining group is harder than the average.
145 to 149
This band means 18 to 22 more Parties submit. It is where the previous round's late pace lands: a little over a third of the remaining 40 each year, over 16 months, gives a total in the mid-140s. The weight reflects the harder make-up of the remaining group and the chance that the current round settles into the previous round's late rhythm.
150 to 154
This band holds the central estimate, with 23 to 27 more Parties submitting. It sits between the two reference paths: the previous round's late pace points to the mid-140s, and the current round's own pace since September 2025, which took the remaining group from about 100 to about 40 in eleven months, points to the high 150s if it carries on at the same proportional rate. A slowing of the current pace, but not to the previous round's level, lands here. Two climate conferences fall in the period, in November 2026 and November 2027.
155 to 159
This band means 28 to 32 more Parties submit, roughly three in four of the remaining group. It is where the current round's proportional pace since September 2025 lands if it holds. The two conferences in the period and the round's faster progress than the previous one support this weight; the harder remaining group holds it below the central band.
160 or more
This band needs at least 33 of the roughly 40 remaining Parties to submit, including several with limited capacity, or new Parties joining the Agreement and submitting. By September 2023, nearly three years after its due date, the previous round had 15 plans not yet updated. The weight reflects how fast the current round has moved, held down by that precedent.
What to watch
- The November 2026 climate conference (9 to 20 November 2026): whether submissions gather before and during it, as the joint European plan did around the November 2025 conference.
- The next official count: the next official mid-round report, and how far it moves from 127.
- Larger economies still to submit: each submission adds one to the count and draws attention to the round.
- Support for preparing plans: technical and financial help for Parties with limited capacity, which decides much of the remaining group.
- The November 2027 climate conference (8 to 19 November 2027): the last major moment for submissions before the resolution date.
- Changes in membership: any State joining or leaving the Agreement changes who is counted.
Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.