Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Non-oil exports of national origin, 2025 | BD 4,120.7 million, up 6.7% on 2024 |
| Non-oil exports of national origin, 2024 | BD 3,863.6 million |
| Fourth quarter of 2025 | BD 1,047 million, up 5% on the fourth quarter of 2024 (BD 1,002 million) |
| Monthly range, 2025 | BD 316.6 million to BD 375.9 million |
| Non-oil re-exports, 2025 | BD 809.6 million |
| Leading product, fourth quarter of 2025 | unwrought aluminium alloys |
| Leading destinations, fourth quarter of 2025 | Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States |
A steady year of growth
Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin rose 6.7% in 2025, from BD 3,863.6 million in 2024 to BD 4,120.7 million. Each month of 2025 brought between BD 316.6 million and BD 375.9 million, and the fourth quarter alone reached BD 1,047 million, up 5% on the fourth quarter of 2024. Re-exports added a further BD 809.6 million.
Aluminium and close partners
Unwrought aluminium alloys were Bahrain's leading non-oil export in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the value of exports moves partly with world aluminium prices. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States were the largest destinations in the fourth quarter of 2025, a spread of buyers across the Gulf and beyond.
What it means
Bahrain has a solid base of goods made in the country, led by aluminium and sold to close partners. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on BD 3,800 million or more in 2027 is 45%, and the combined weight on BD 3,300 million or more is 75%, which on the Centre's own calculation would keep exports of national origin at about 80% or more of their 2025 level.
Scenarios: Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the value of Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin (excluding re-exports) for calendar year 2027, in BD million, as first published by the national statistics authority in its first official release giving the full-year 2027 figure, expected in early 2028. Only that first official full-year figure counts; later revisions are ignored. If the authority publishes only monthly or quarterly figures, the Centre adds those for 2027 as first published, on the Centre's own calculation. A figure given in BD billion is converted to BD million, so BD 4.3 billion counts as BD 4,300 million, but the most precise official figure is used. The figure is rounded half up to a whole BD million, once, before it is placed in a band, so BD 3,799.5 million counts as BD 3,800 million. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. If the measure is rebased or goods are reclassified between oil and non-oil, or between national origin and re-exports, before the 2027 figure appears, the figure published for 2027 on the official basis in use at that time is used. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly BD 3,300 million falls in band 2, exactly BD 3,800 million in band 3, exactly BD 4,300 million in band 4 and exactly BD 4,800 million in band 5. If no official full-year 2027 figure is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
Moderation: under BD 3,300 million
On the Centre's own calculation, this means a 2027 level about 20% or more below 2025. Exports of a few large products, led by aluminium, move with world metal prices and plant output, and the 2025 level is a high base after a strong year, so a period of moderation is quite possible and this band gets a high weight.
Gentle level: BD 3,300 million to under BD 3,800 million
This is the most likely band. On the Centre's own calculation, it covers about 20% to 8% below the 2025 level, at or below the 2024 level of BD 3,863.6 million. A partial return toward the 2025 level after a period of normalisation would place 2027 here. It gets the highest weight, so the most likely band sits just below the one holding the 2025 actual.
Steady level: BD 3,800 million to under BD 4,300 million
This is the band that holds the 2025 level. It contains the latest full-year actual, BD 4,120.7 million in 2025, and covers about 8% below to 4% above it on the Centre's own calculation. A full return to the 2025 level by 2027, or modest growth from it, lands here. The 2025 level is a high base, so this band is a close second rather than the most likely.
Strong growth: BD 4,300 million to under BD 4,800 million
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of about 4% to 16% on 2025 over two years, in line with the 2025 pace of 6.7% in one or both years. Firm aluminium demand would support it, but it needs gains above a high base, so the weight is modest.
Very strong growth: BD 4,800 million or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of more than about 16% on 2025 over two years, faster than the 2025 pace in both years. The weight is low.
What to watch
- Monthly trade reports: non-oil exports of national origin each month through 2026 and 2027.
- Aluminium: world prices and output, the largest single driver.
- Leading partners: demand from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States.
- Re-exports: the other part of non-oil exports, which the measure excludes.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.