Key figures (as of October 2026)
| CEPAs signed since the programme began in September 2021 | 38 (August 2026), plus Canada signed on 27 October 2026 |
| CEPAs in force | 18 (July 2026) |
| Non-oil foreign trade, 2025 | about AED 3.8 trillion, up 27% on 2024 |
| Non-oil exports, 2025 | AED 813.8 billion, up 45.5% |
| Non-oil foreign trade, first half of 2026 | AED 1.937 trillion, up 13.1% year on year |
| Trade with in-force CEPA partners, first half of 2026 | AED 304.3 billion |
| National target for 2031 | AED 4 trillion non-oil foreign trade, AED 800 billion non-oil exports |
A network built at speed
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement programme was launched in September 2021 as one of the Projects of the 50. Each CEPA cuts or removes tariffs on most goods, opens services and investment, and simplifies customs. By August 2026 the UAE had signed 38 such agreements across Asia, Africa, Europe, the Americas and Oceania, and 18 were in force by July 2026.
Partners in force include India, the first, which took effect on 1 May 2022. Indonesia and Türkiye followed in September 2023, then Cambodia (31 January 2024) and Georgia (27 June 2024). Costa Rica and Mauritius came into force on 2 April 2025, Jordan on 15 May 2025 and Serbia on 1 June 2025. New Zealand followed on 28 August 2025, and Australia and Malaysia on 1 October 2025. In 2026 the agreements with Viet Nam (3 February), Azerbaijan (15 April) and the Republic of Korea (1 May) took effect.
Signed agreements awaiting entry into force include the Philippines and Nigeria (both signed on 13 January 2026), Kenya, Gabon and the Republic of the Congo. On 27 October 2026 the UAE and Canada signed the first CEPA between the UAE and a G7 member, after negotiations that took just 47 days. Talks continue with around 20 more countries.
What the agreements are delivering
The early partners show the effect most clearly. Non-oil trade with India reached US$76.2 billion in 2025, up 17.3%, and the two countries have set a new goal of US$200 billion in total bilateral trade by 2032. Non-oil trade with Türkiye exceeded US$45.2 billion in 2025, up 15.5% and nearly three times its 2022 level. With Indonesia it reached about US$6.14 billion in 2025, up 12.3% on 2024 and almost double the 2021 level. Non-oil trade with Canada grew by more than 21% in 2025 to about US$4.2 billion, before the agreement was even signed.
Across all in-force partners, non-oil trade reached AED 304.3 billion in the first half of 2026. UAE exports now make up 21.7% of that trade, up from 19.1% in 2022, a sign that the agreements are opening markets for goods made in the UAE and not only for imports.
The national picture
In 2025 the UAE's non-oil foreign trade passed US$1 trillion for the first time, reaching about AED 3.8 trillion. That was 27% more than in 2024 and almost double the 2021 level. The final quarter alone brought AED 1.1 trillion. Non-oil exports rose 45.5% to AED 813.8 billion, already above the AED 800 billion goal set for 2031.
Momentum continued in 2026. Non-oil trade reached AED 1.937 trillion in the first half, up 13.1%, and non-oil exports hit a record AED 452.8 billion, up 23.9%. Exports rose to 23.4% of all non-oil trade. China, Switzerland and India were the largest partners.
What it means
The CEPA programme has become a central tool of the UAE's international partnerships, linking trade, investment and diplomacy across every continent. With the export goal already met and the trade goal within reach, the focus is moving from signing agreements to getting the most out of them: more partners in force, more firms using lower tariffs, and a larger share of exports in total trade.
Scenarios: full-year 2026 non-oil foreign trade
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the trends above.
Scenarios revised on 30 October 2026 to a finer split.
The variable is the UAE's official non-oil foreign trade value for calendar year 2026. The forecast resolves when the official full-year 2026 figure is published, expected in early 2027.
Target passed with room: AED 4.1 trillion or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs second-half trade to grow by more than about 4.4% on its 2025 level, well below the first-half pace of 13.1%. The weight is not higher because growth slowed in the second quarter.
Target just reached: at least AED 4.0 trillion but below AED 4.1 trillion
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers second-half trade from roughly unchanged on its 2025 level to about 4.4% above it; a flat second half already takes the year just past AED 4 trillion, five years ahead of 2031. New agreements with Viet Nam, Azerbaijan and Korea add support, and this range gets an equal share of the former target band because the margin over AED 4 trillion is thin.
Record year, just short: at least AED 3.9 trillion but below AED 4.0 trillion
On the Centre's own calculation, this means second-half trade up to about 5% below its 2025 level, for example from softer gold trade, which at AED 706.2 billion was the largest item in first-half trade. The target would then most likely be met in 2027.
Record year, further short: at least AED 3.8 trillion but below AED 3.9 trillion
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs second-half trade between about 5% and 10% below its 2025 level. The weight is lower than scenario 3 because it needs a clearer slowdown than anything in the 2026 data so far.
Below AED 3.8 trillion
This would require a sharp fall in second-half trade from its 2025 level. Nothing in the 2026 data so far points that way, so the weight is low. Edges: exactly AED 4.1 trillion falls in scenario 1, exactly AED 4.0 trillion in scenario 2, exactly AED 3.9 trillion in scenario 3 and exactly AED 3.8 trillion in scenario 4. The most precise official AED figure is used; if the AED figure is only rounded (for example "about AED 4 trillion"), the official US-dollar figure converted at AED 3.6725 is used, but only if it is published more precisely than the AED figure. Only then does a figure published as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" X count as X, and a range count at its midpoint. The figure is used at its full precision and is not rounded before banding, so AED 3.96 trillion falls in scenario 3 and a figure published as AED 4.0 trillion falls in scenario 2. If no official 2026 figure is published by 31 December 2027, the forecast is withdrawn.
What to watch
- Nine-month and full-year 2026 trade data: the clearest guide to whether the AED 4 trillion mark is passed in 2026.
- Entry into force of signed deals: the Philippines, Nigeria, Kenya and Canada.
- New signings: progress in talks with around 20 countries.
- Export share: whether non-oil exports keep rising as a share of total trade.
- Partner growth: trade with the newest partners, such as Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Korea, in their first full years in force.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.