Key figures (as of 30 October 2026)
| Benchmark price, annual average, 2024 | USD 28.27 per troy ounce |
| Benchmark price, annual average, 2025 | USD 40.03, up 41.6% on 2024, on the Centre's own calculation |
| Benchmark price, average from 1 January to 30 October 2026 | USD 71.59, up 78.8% on the 2025 average, on the Centre's own calculation |
| Benchmark price, quarterly averages, 2026 | USD 84.33 (first quarter), USD 73.15 (second), USD 62.59 (third), on the Centre's own calculation |
| Benchmark price, average for October 2026 to the 30th | USD 57.42, down 10.9% on September 2026 and 37.7% on January 2026, on the Centre's own calculation |
| Benchmark price, 30 October 2026 | USD 50.10, down 30.4% on the last price of 2025 (USD 71.99, 31 December 2025), on the Centre's own calculation |
| Highest and lowest benchmark prices in 2026 to 30 October | USD 118.45 (29 January) and USD 50.10 (30 October) |
| Official outlook, October 2026 | silver price USD 70.0 in 2026, USD 62.0 in 2027 and USD 58.0 in 2028 (lender's own series) |
| World mine production | 846.6 million ounces in 2025 |
A steep rise, then a sharp fall
The benchmark price rose 41.6% in 2025 compared with 2024, from an average of USD 28.27 to USD 40.03, on the Centre's own calculation. Most of the rise came late in the year. The fourth quarter of 2025 averaged USD 54.73, on the Centre's own calculation, and the last price of 2025, USD 71.99, was 144.8% above the first price of the year, USD 29.405.
The rise continued into early 2026. The highest price of the year so far, USD 118.45, came on 29 January, and the first quarter averaged USD 84.33. Since then the price has fallen. The second quarter averaged USD 73.15, 13.3% below the first, and the third quarter USD 62.59, 14.4% below the second, both on the Centre's own calculation. In the third quarter the price ranged from USD 55.29 on 17 July to USD 70.26 on 28 August, and ended September at USD 60.73.
| Month (2026) | Average benchmark price, USD per troy ounce |
|---|---|
| January | 92.13 |
| February | 82.55 |
| March | 78.50 |
| April | 75.75 |
| May | 77.83 |
| June | 66.73 |
| July | 58.56 |
| August | 65.16 |
| September | 64.47 |
| October (to the 30th) | 57.42 |
Monthly averages are on the Centre's own calculation, from the daily benchmark prices.
October to the 30th has the lowest monthly average of 2026 so far. The price on 30 October, USD 50.10, was the lowest of 2026 to date. It was 30.0% below the 2026 average to date and 25.2% above the 2025 average, on the Centre's own calculation.
Supply and demand
According to the silver industry body's annual market study, published in April 2026, world mine production was 846.6 million ounces in 2025.
Industrial use is shifting. The international development lender expects high prices to encourage industry to use less silver in 2027 and 2028, including a move towards copper in solar panels, partly offset by demand growth from electronics, data centres, vehicles and power networks.
The official outlook
In its October 2026 commodity outlook, the international development lender forecast a silver price of about USD 70.0 per troy ounce in 2026, USD 62.0 in 2027 and USD 58.0 in 2028. Its 2027 figure is 11.4% below its 2026 forecast, and 4.6% below the USD 65.0 it forecast for 2027 in April 2026. It expects precious metals prices to moderate somewhat in 2027. The lender uses its own silver series, which differs slightly from the benchmark: for 2025 it shows USD 39.8, against the benchmark's USD 40.03.
What it means
Silver has fallen sharply from its January 2026 high, but the 2026 average to date is still 78.8% above the 2025 average. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on USD 55 or more in 2027 is 51%, and the combined weight on USD 65 or more is 25%.
Scenarios: the average silver price in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the 2027 average of the London daily silver benchmark price, in USD per troy ounce, as first published by the market's trade association as the actual average price for 2027, usually in early 2028. If none is published by 30 June 2028, the Centre's simple mean of all first-published 2027 daily benchmark prices is used. Withdrawn if neither is available by 31 December 2028. The benchmark is the London daily silver price, in US dollars, as published by the market's official price administrator. For the fallback mean, days without a benchmark price, such as London holidays, are left out, each day's price is taken as first published, and later corrections are ignored. Averages published by other bodies, forecasts and partial-year averages do not count. The figure is rounded half up to two decimal places, once, before it is placed in a band, so USD 54.995 counts as USD 55.00. If the benchmark is renamed, rebased, moved to another administrator or replaced by an officially named successor daily silver price before or during 2027, the successor's US-dollar prices are used for the days they cover. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly USD 45.00 falls in band 2, exactly USD 55.00 in band 3, exactly USD 65.00 in band 4 and exactly USD 75.00 in band 5.
Deep fall: under USD 45
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 average more than 10.2% below the price on 30 October 2026, and less than 12.4% above the 2025 average of USD 40.03. It would follow if the fall since January carries on into 2027 and the move away from silver in solar panels gathers pace. The price has fallen fast, so the weight is meaningful, but the 2026 average to date is still well above this range, so it is not the most likely band.
Near current levels: USD 45 to under USD 55
This is the most likely band. It holds the price on 30 October 2026, USD 50.10, and covers a 2027 average from 10.2% below to 9.8% above that price, on the Centre's own calculation. It would follow if prices settle near late-October levels, with supply and industrial use broadly in balance. It gets the highest weight.
Partial recovery: USD 55 to under USD 65
This band holds the October average to the 30th, USD 57.42, the third-quarter average of USD 62.59 and the official outlook for 2027 of USD 62.0. On the Centre's own calculation, it needs a 2027 average from 9.8% to 29.7% above the price on 30 October 2026. It would follow if prices recover towards their third-quarter level. That is a real possibility, so the weight is solid.
Strong recovery: USD 65 to under USD 75
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 average from 29.7% to 49.7% above the price on 30 October 2026, around the second-quarter 2026 average of USD 73.15. It would follow if investment demand returns strongly. The weight is moderate.
Much higher: USD 75 or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs a 2027 average at least 49.7% above the price on 30 October 2026, and above the 2026 average to date of USD 71.59. Every month from January to May 2026 averaged above USD 75, which shows that such levels can be reached, so the band keeps some weight. It is above the official outlook, so the weight is low. Why band 2 carries more weight than band 3. The official outlook of USD 62.0 for 2027 sits in band 3. Prices weakened in late October: on 30 October the price was USD 50.10, 19.2% below the outlook, and October averaged USD 57.42, the lowest month of 2026, both on the Centre's own calculation. The outlook is also for the lender's own series, not the benchmark. For a 2027 average in band 3, the price would need to rise by at least 9.8% from its 30 October level and hold there on average through the year.
What to watch
- Daily benchmark prices: the level through late 2026 sets the starting point for 2027.
- Year-ahead analyst survey: the market's trade association's annual survey of forecasts for 2027 average prices, usually published in January, alongside its first figure for the 2026 average.
- Industry market study: the silver industry body's next annual study of supply, demand and the market balance, usually published in April.
- Official outlook: the international development lender's next commodity outlook, usually published in April.
- Solar demand: how quickly solar panel makers move from silver to copper.
Figures as of 30 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.