Ghaf Centre for Studies & ResearchGCSR
Home / Trade & Transport

Trade & Transport

Rail, ports, logistics and the flows of trade.

Transport & RailUAE & Gulf
Transport & RailUAE & GulfOctober 2026

On Track: The UAE Enters the Passenger Rail Era

Intercity trains now link Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Al Dhaid and Fujairah. With Al Dhafra and Sharjah stations next and cross-border lines advancing, rail is becoming a core part of how the UAE, and soon the Gulf, moves.

Most likely: On schedule
65%
Trade & TransportUAE & World
Trade & TransportUAE & WorldOctober 2026

Hub of the World: UAE Aviation and Global Air Travel to 2030

Dubai International welcomed a record 95.2 million passengers in 2025, the most international travellers ever handled by any airport, and with traffic rebuilding month by month, a 260-million-passenger airport rising at Al Maktoum International and record years for Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, the UAE is set to remain the world's leading aviation hub to 2030.

Most likely: 95 million to under 100 million passengers
30%
Trade & TransportWorld
Trade & TransportWorldOctober 2026

The Trade Engine: World Merchandise Trade Growth in 2027

World goods trade grew faster than output in 2025 and has kept its pace in 2026, as strong demand for the equipment behind artificial intelligence has outweighed disruption to energy and shipping routes. The latest official outlook sees merchandise trade volume rising 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, and the question is whether 2027 matches that path, falls short of it or beats it.

Most likely: 3.5% to under 4.5%
30%
Trade & TransportUAE & World
Trade & TransportUAE & WorldOctober 2026

Made in the UAE: Non-Oil Foreign Trade and Exports in 2026

The UAE's non-oil foreign trade passed US$1 trillion for the first time in 2025, reaching about AED 3.8 trillion, and non-oil exports rose 45.5% to AED 813.8 billion, already above the national goal set for 2031. The first half of 2026 brought new records, with non-oil exports of AED 452.8 billion, up 23.9% on the first half of 2025. With a growing network of trade agreements and export orders rising again through the third quarter, the question is how far the UAE's non-oil exports climb in the full year 2026.

Most likely: AED 900 billion to under AED 950 billion
35%
Trade & TransportUAE & World
Trade & TransportUAE & WorldOctober 2026

Global Air Passenger Traffic in 2027

World air passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (one paying passenger flown one kilometre), grew 5.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, and airlines filled 83.6% of their seats. Growth has moderated in 2026: traffic from January to September was 0.3% higher than in the same months of 2025, and the airline industry's mid-2026 outlook expects growth of 2.1% for the full year 2026 compared with 2025. This study asks how fast world passenger traffic could grow in calendar year 2027 compared with 2026.

Most likely: 4.0% to under 6.0%
33%
Trade & TransportUAE & Gulf
Trade & TransportUAE & GulfOctober 2026

The UAE's Non-Oil Foreign Trade in 2027

The UAE's non-oil foreign trade reached about AED 3.8 trillion in 2025, up 27% on 2024 and almost double the 2021 level, and passed US$1 trillion for the first time. The first half of 2026 brought AED 1.937 trillion, up 13.1% on the first half of 2025, with exports taking a larger share of the total. With a widening network of trade agreements and a national goal of AED 4 trillion by 2031, this study asks how large the UAE's total non-oil foreign trade could be in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: AED 4.4 trillion to under AED 4.6 trillion
32%
Trade & TransportUAE & Gulf
Trade & TransportUAE & GulfOctober 2026

Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports in 2027

Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, reached SAR 366.08 billion in 2025, up 18.9% on 2024, led by a 64.4% rise in re-exports. The ratio of non-oil exports to imports rose to 38.5%, from 35.3% in 2024, and oil's share of total exports fell to 68.7%, from 73.1%. This study asks how large Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, could be in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: SAR 345 billion to under SAR 380 billion
30%
Trade & TransportUAE & Gulf
Trade & TransportUAE & GulfOctober 2026

Kuwait's Non-Oil Exports in 2027

Kuwait's non-oil exports of national origin, goods made in Kuwait, reached KD 1,418.4 million in 2025, up from KD 1,310.5 million in 2024 and KD 1,151.4 million in 2023. On the Centre's own calculation that is growth of 8.2% in 2025 after 13.8% in 2024. Together with re-exports, non-oil goods made up 12.3% of Kuwait's exports in 2025, up from 10.3% in 2024. This study asks how large Kuwait's non-oil exports of national origin could be in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: Under KD 1,200 million
30%
Trade & TransportUAE & Gulf
Trade & TransportUAE & GulfOctober 2026

Oman's Non-Oil Exports in 2027

Oman's non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, reached OMR 6,698 million in 2025, with each quarter between OMR 1,621 million and OMR 1,731 million. Growth continued in 2026: from January to July, non-oil exports reached OMR 4,309 million, up 10.7% on the same months of 2025, led by base metals, chemical products and precious stones and metals. This study asks how large Oman's non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, could be in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: OMR 6,800 million to…
31%
Trade & TransportUAE & Gulf
Trade & TransportUAE & GulfOctober 2026

Bahrain's Non-Oil Exports in 2027

Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin, goods made in Bahrain, reached BD 4,120.7 million in 2025, up 6.7% on the BD 3,863.6 million of 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, aluminium led the list of products, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States were the largest buyers. That quarter brought BD 1,047 million, up 5% on the fourth quarter of 2024. This study asks how large Bahrain's non-oil exports of national origin could be in calendar year 2027.

Most likely: BD 3,300 million to…
30%