Key figures (as of October 2026)
| World passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometres), 2025 | up 5.3% on 2024 |
| International and domestic traffic, 2025 | international up 7.1% on 2024; domestic up 2.4% |
| Passenger load factor, 2025 | 83.6% of seats filled, up 0.1 percentage points on 2024 |
| Fastest-growing regions, 2025 | airlines of Africa up 9.4%, Asia-Pacific up 7.8%, Latin America and the Caribbean up 7.0%, Middle East up 6.8% (each on 2024) |
| World passenger traffic, January to September 2026 | up 0.3% on January to September 2025; load factor 83.6% |
| World passenger traffic, September 2026 | 788 billion revenue passenger kilometres, 0.5% below September 2025; international up 0.4% |
| Mid-2026 industry outlook for 2026 | traffic up 2.1% on 2025; about 5.1 billion passengers, up 2.4% on 2025; load factor 84.0% |
| Scheduled seat capacity, late 2026 | expected up 0.6% in October and 1.5% in November, each on the same month of 2025 |
A return to the long-run pattern
After the fast recovery that followed the pandemic, world air traffic grew 5.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, a pace the airline industry describes as in line with historical growth patterns. International traffic rose 7.1% and domestic traffic 2.4%, each compared with 2024. Airlines filled 83.6% of seats over the year, up 0.1 percentage points on 2024, as demand kept pace with the available aircraft.
Growth was broad. Compared with 2024, traffic of African airlines rose 9.4%, Asia-Pacific airlines 7.8%, Latin American and Caribbean airlines 7.0% and Middle Eastern airlines 6.8%. Asia-Pacific airlines carried 34.5% of world traffic in 2025, European airlines 26.6% and North American airlines 21.8%.
Gulf hubs in the global network
Airlines based in the Middle East carried 9.5% of world passenger traffic in 2025, and their traffic grew 6.8% compared with 2024, faster than the world as a whole. Their long-haul networks link Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas through the Gulf's hub airports, so their pace matters for world traffic. The Centre's separate study of UAE aviation follows passenger numbers at Dubai's main airport.
A slower 2026
Growth has been gentler in 2026. From January to September, world traffic was 0.3% higher than in the same months of 2025, international traffic 0.3% higher and domestic traffic 0.4% higher, and airlines filled 83.6% of seats. In September, total traffic was 0.5% below September 2025, while international traffic rose 0.4%. The airline industry's mid-2026 outlook expects traffic to grow 2.1% in 2026 compared with 2025, with about 5.1 billion passengers, up 2.4%, and a load factor of 84.0%. Scheduled seat capacity is expected to be 0.6% higher in October 2026 and 1.5% higher in November 2026 than a year earlier. With seats already well filled, growth depends partly on how quickly new aircraft reach airlines.
What it means
World air travel has returned to a steady long-run pattern, with demand filling more than four in five seats. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on growth of 4.0% or more in 2027 is 58%, which would mean a return to around the 2025 pace or faster.
Scenarios: world air passenger traffic growth in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the percentage change in total-market world passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (international and domestic scheduled traffic together, all airlines covered by the global airline industry body's statistics), for calendar year 2027 compared with calendar year 2026, as first published by that industry body in its full-year 2027 passenger traffic release, expected in late January 2028. Only that first full-year figure counts; later revisions are ignored, and forecasts or estimates published before the full-year release do not count. The figure is rounded half up to one decimal place, once, before it is placed in a band, so 3.95% counts as 4.0% and 3.94% counts as 3.9%. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. If the industry body changes the coverage or method of its traffic statistics before the 2027 figure appears, the full-year 2027 change it first publishes on the basis in use at that time is used. The bands cover every possible value, including any fall, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly 2.0% falls in band 2, exactly 4.0% in band 3, exactly 6.0% in band 4 and exactly 8.0% in band 5. If no full-year 2027 figure is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
Gentle year: under 2.0%
This would repeat a pace close to 2026's, with growth from January to September 2026 at 0.3% and the full-year outlook at 2.1%. It would follow if seat capacity stays tight into 2027. That is a real possibility, so the band keeps a solid weight.
Moderate growth: 2.0% to under 4.0%
This fits a gradual pick-up from 2026, limited by the number of aircraft available while load factors are already near 84%. Expected seat capacity growth of 0.6% to 1.5% in late 2026 points to a measured start to 2027, so this band gets a high weight.
Steady growth: 4.0% to under 6.0%
This is the most likely band. It contains the latest full-year actual, growth of 5.3% in 2025, the pace the industry describes as in line with historical patterns. A return to that pace from a softer 2026 base lands here. It gets the highest weight.
Strong growth: 6.0% to under 8.0%
This would follow if traffic that was slower in 2026 returns to its 2025 pace while other regions keep growing, lifting growth measured against the 2026 base. International traffic grew 7.1% in 2025, so the weight is moderate.
Very strong growth: 8.0% or more
This needs a large rebound across most regions together with a fast increase in aircraft deliveries. It is possible from a soft base but would be well above the 2025 pace, so the weight is lower.
What to watch
- Monthly traffic releases: world passenger traffic for each month of late 2026 and 2027.
- Year-end industry outlook: the airline industry's first forecast for 2027, normally published in December.
- Seat capacity: scheduled seats and new aircraft deliveries.
- Gulf hubs: traffic growth of Middle Eastern airlines and their long-haul networks.
- Asia-Pacific: the largest region, with 34.5% of world traffic in 2025.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.