Islamist political networks in Europe: influence outlook to 2030

Key figures (as of 30 October 2026)

Scope and approach

The forecast variable is about organisations that are named in official texts. It is not a measure of religious belief, practice or attendance, and it says nothing about Muslims as a population. Official texts treat Islamism as a political ideology, not a religion: a UK government strategy of April 2026 calls it "a political ideology", and Germany's domestic intelligence service describes it as a form of political extremism. This study does not use census or population figures, and it does not name or characterise any individual.

An organisation counts only where an official review, court ruling, ban or designation names it, and only within the terms of that finding. The study uses no estimates from research bodies, advocacy groups or the media, and no figures that could not be traced to an official text.

United Kingdom

An official government review of the Muslim Brotherhood published its main findings on 17 December 2015. In a statement the same day, the head of government said the main findings "support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism". The government did not proscribe the Brotherhood. It said it would "keep under review whether the views and activities of the Muslim Brotherhood meet the legal test for proscription".

The review found that, from the 1990s, "for some years" the Brotherhood "dominated the Muslim Association of Britain (MAB)", and that MAB "promoted candidates in national and local elections". It does not say that any such candidate was elected, and it found that "The MAB appears much less active than it was between 2002 and 2006". It also found that "The Muslim Brotherhood has not been linked to terrorist related activity in and against the UK". Its conclusions state: "Though their domestic influence has declined organisations associated with the Muslim Brotherhood continue to have an influence here which is disproportionate to their size".

Hizb ut-Tahrir, described in the government's published list as "an international Sunni Islamist political organisation", was proscribed as a terrorist organisation with effect from 19 January 2024. Membership or inviting support is now a criminal offence. The proscribed list was last updated on 7 July 2026 and does not include the Muslim Brotherhood.

In April 2026 the government published a strategy on cohesion and resilience. It states that "Islamist extremism is a predominant threat" and commits to an annual report on the state of extremism, for which no date has been set. A revised statement on proscription policy was published on 26 October 2026 under the Crime and Policing Act 2026.

### London

The conclusions of the 2015 review say that the Brotherhood in the UK used "London as a base for activism elsewhere". The review describes this activism as directed at politics elsewhere, not at London's elected bodies. The Centre found no official finding that links any London borough councillor, London Assembly member or mayoral office to an officially identified organisation. All 32 London borough councils were elected in May 2026, and their next elections are due on 2 May 2030. The next Mayor of London and London Assembly elections are on 4 May 2028.

France

On 21 May 2025 the interior ministry published an official review by senior officials on the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islamism in France. It identifies Musulmans de France as the national branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in France. The review counts 139 affiliated places of worship and 68 considered close, in 55 departments, as well as 21 schools. It describes the spread of Islamism as rooted in activism at the municipal level and says the threat is local more than national.

A national security council meeting chaired by the head of state on 7 July 2025 agreed new administrative measures, including dissolution of endowment funds, transfer of the assets of dissolved associations and an administrative asset freeze. It also agreed training for officials ahead of the March 2026 municipal elections.

In December 2025 a parliamentary commission of inquiry registered its report on links between political movements and Islamist networks. It recommended vigilance over local candidate lists ahead of those elections.

On 7 April 2026 the interior minister told the lower house of parliament that the 2021 law against separatism had led to the dissolution of 16 associations or de facto groups and the temporary closure of 14 places of worship. He also said a government bill adding a new dissolution ground aimed at "entryism" had been sent for legal review.

Separately, the upper house adopted a member's bill to combat Islamist entryism on 5 May 2026. It reached the lower house on 6 May 2026, where it had not been scheduled as of 30 October 2026.

The municipal councils elected in March 2026 sit until 2032. The Centre found no official finding identifying any council list or councillor elected in March 2026 as standing for an officially identified organisation.

Germany

The domestic intelligence service's annual report for 2025 was published on 30 June 2026. It counts an Islamist following of 28,645 people in 2025, of whom 9,110 are assessed as violence-oriented.

It counts the Muslim Brotherhood milieu at 1,450 people in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025, including 350 members of the Deutsche Muslimische Gemeinschaft e.V. (DMG). The report describes the DMG as the most important organisation of Brotherhood followers in Germany. It says the DMG pursues a strategy of influence in the political and social sphere aligned with Brotherhood ideology. It also notes a visible decline in the DMG's public engagement.

Hizb ut-Tahrir has been banned from activity in Germany since January 2003. On 5 November 2025 the federal interior minister enforced a ban on Muslim Interaktiv, an association the report describes as close to Hizb ut-Tahrir. The association was dissolved and its assets seized. A legal challenge is pending before the country's highest administrative court, so the ban is not yet final.

The federal parliament elected on 23 February 2025 must hold its next regular election between 26 January and 25 March 2029.

Spain

Official material on organised political Islamism in Spain is limited. The Centre found no official review, court ruling, ban or designation that identifies an organisation in Spain as Muslim Brotherhood-linked.

Spain's official framework is a national counter-terrorism strategy adopted in 2023, which focuses on violent threats.

A non-binding parliamentary motion about the Muslim Brotherhood as a national-security matter was published in the official parliamentary gazette on 17 February 2026. The Centre found no recorded vote on it.

A general election called by royal decree of 5 October 2026 will be held on 29 November 2026. Municipal elections and ten regional parliament elections are due on 23 May 2027.

European overview

Across the four countries, official texts describe the organisations in scope as working mainly through associations, places of worship, schools and lobbying. None describes them as contesting elections under their own names today. The one official reference to candidates in the four countries is the UK review's account of candidates promoted by one association in earlier years, which it does not date precisely.

The trend in policy since 2024 has been towards more restrictions, not fewer: a proscription in the UK, bans in Germany, and dissolutions and new asset-freeze tools in France. Some of these measures face court challenges. European Parliament elections are due in 2029. A European Parliament seat is outside the five tests below and does not count.

Influence beyond elections: what official findings describe

The findings below describe organisations named in official texts, not Muslims or Muslim communities. Official texts make that line explicit: the UK government strategy of April 2026 states that "Islamists do not represent the Muslim communities of the UK", and France's head of state warned in July 2025 against conflating Islamism with Islam and Muslims. Each finding is given in the government text's own words or in close translation.

France. (Quotations from French and German official texts are the Centre's own translations.) The government review published in May 2025 states that a "risk from the Brotherhood movement" "does exist" but "must be assessed in proportion, in particular at national level". It describes instead a local Islamist political activism "that goes well beyond preaching". The review counts "280 associations attached to the movement", active in worship and also in charitable, school, professional, youth and financial fields. It treats youth activities as a "priority of the movement". On sport, it states that football, basketball and combat sports "are particularly targeted by separatist activity". It records that in 2020, 127 sports associations were identified as having a relationship with a separatist movement; it attributes five of them to the Brotherhood movement. On local politics, the review says that, "without, at this stage, forming community lists", activists exert growing pressure on local elected officials. The methods it lists include "issuing voting instructions, negotiating community measures in electoral programmes and obtaining local positions". On funding, the review states that endowment funds, a form of charitable vehicle, "have been widely diverted by the Brotherhood movement, in particular to collect foreign funds". It records that a court dissolved the movement's largest endowment fund on 4 July 2024.

United Kingdom. The government review of December 2015 found that "A complex network of charities associated with the Muslim Brotherhood has developed here over many years" and that "Many Brotherhood groups have raised funds in the UK". Its conclusions state that Brotherhood associates and affiliates "have at times had significant influence on the largest UK Muslim student organisation, national organisations which have claimed to represent Muslim communities (and on that basis have sought and had a dialogue with Government), charities and some mosques". They also state that "much about the Muslim Brotherhood in the UK remains secretive, including membership, fund raising and educational programmes". The government's definition of extremism, published on 14 March 2024, names no organisation. It defines extremism as "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance" that aims to "negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others", to "undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights", or to create a permissive environment for those results. It adds that the lawful exercise of rights, including "freedom of thought, conscience and religion", "is not extremism". The government strategy of April 2026 commits to embed that definition across government and to update engagement principles "so that public bodies do not confer legitimacy, funding or influence on extremist groups". It names no organisation in this context.

Germany. The domestic intelligence service's annual report for 2025, published on 30 June 2026, has a category of organisations it describes as seeking influence in the political sphere, and lists the Muslim Brotherhood among the significant actors in it. It says many Islamist organisations pursue their religious and political aims with a long-term, sustained and comprehensive strategy. Their aim is to influence public debate on Muslim concerns and, in the long term, to move the political and social system towards an Islamist society. It says these organisations often have mosque communities, training institutions and active youth and education work. They seek contact with political and social actors from municipal politics and public services up to national and international initiatives, and many have substantial financial resources. The report says the Deutsche Muslimische Gemeinschaft e.V. seeks to present itself to politicians, the authorities and civil-society partners as the voice of an ostensibly moderate, open-minded Islam. It also says numerous links between the association's senior officials and well-known foreign Brotherhood members show that it belongs to the worldwide Brotherhood network.

Spain. The Centre found no official review, ruling, ban or designation in Spain that describes non-electoral activity by an organisation identified as Muslim Brotherhood-linked or Islamist extremist.

Social cohesion

Only England has a dated official series on this question that is directly comparable over time. In the 2025/26 official survey, 79% of adults in England agreed that their local area is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together. That was down 2 percentage points from 81% in 2024/25. The figure had stayed between 81% and 84% from 2017/18 to 2024/25. In London the figure was 81% in 2025/26.

The Centre does not use the survey's breakdowns by religion or ethnicity here. It found no comparable dated official series for France, Germany or Spain to set beside the English figures.

Scenarios: highest level of elected office held on 31 December 2030

Resolution rule: the highest of the five levels below that is met on 31 December 2030 in the United Kingdom, Spain, France or Germany. An organisation counts if, by 31 December 2030, an official government review, a court ruling or a designation identifies it as Muslim Brotherhood-linked or Islamist extremist. A party counts if it is officially run or controlled by such an organisation. The tie between an organisation and a seat must be shown either by official election results, with the seat won by a candidate standing under the organisation's or the party's name, or by an official review, court ruling or designation, dated by 31 December 2030, finding that the organisation or party runs or controls the list or the officeholder. Membership of, or sympathy with, an organisation by a person elected for another party does not count. A seat counts only if the holder is in office on 31 December 2030 after election, including a replacement from the same list. Appointed and indirectly selected bodies whose members are not elected, such as the UK's appointed upper chamber and Germany's chamber of state government delegates, do not count. Indirect elections to a national upper house do count. European Parliament seats do not count. If an identifying finding is annulled by a final court ruling before 31 December 2030, it no longer counts. A seat counts only if the official finding naming the organisation or party is in force on 31 December 2030. Level 1: no elected seat at any level. Level 2: local or municipal council seats only. Level 3: at least one regional, devolved or state-parliament seat, but no national parliament seat. Level 4: at least one national parliament seat, without ministerial office or coalition membership. Level 5: part of a national government, either holding a ministerial post or as a formal member of the governing coalition. If more than one level is met, the highest applies. If the evidence does not clearly establish a higher level, the lower level applies. The outcome is decided on official election records and official findings as they stand on 31 December 2030. If those records are not available by 30 June 2031, the forecast is withdrawn. The last revision of these probabilities is 30 June 2030. Probabilities are whole numbers summing to 100; where rounding leaves a total other than 100, the largest remainder is adjusted. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the levels are ordered.

What to watch

1. Spain: general election on 29 November 2026, with the new chambers meeting on 23 December 2026; municipal and ten regional parliament elections on 23 May 2027.
2. France: presidential election on 18 April and 2 May 2027; regional and departmental elections in March 2028; legislative elections due in 2029; progress of the Islamist entryism bill, with the lower house since 6 May 2026, and of the government's bill on separatism and entryism.
3. Germany: the domestic intelligence service's next annual report (the 2025 report was published on 30 June 2026); the court ruling on the Muslim Interaktiv ban; the federal election between 26 January and 25 March 2029.
4. United Kingdom: local elections in England on 6 May 2027; Mayor of London and London Assembly elections on 4 May 2028; general election no later than 15 August 2029; London borough elections on 2 May 2030; any change to the proscribed list; the first annual report on the state of extremism.
5. Cohesion data: the next release of England's official community survey, which last reported on 16 September 2026.
6. Review point: last revision of this forecast on 30 June 2030.

Figures as of 30 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.