Key figures (as of October 2026)
| World population, 1 July 2027 (current medium projection) | 8.369 billion (8,369.1 million) |
| World population, 1 July 2026 | 8.301 billion |
| Annual growth rate, 2027 | 0.81%, down from 0.86% in 2024 |
| Births and deaths, 2027 (projected) | About 132.6 million births and 64.6 million deaths |
| Global fertility rate, 2027 (projected) | 2.22 births per woman |
| Change to the 2027 world figure at the last two revisions | +2.9 million and +33.1 million |
| Next full revision | Scheduled for public release on 11 July 2027 |
A slowing but still growing world
The world is still adding about 68 million people a year. Projected births of about 132.6 million in 2027 remain roughly twice the projected 64.6 million deaths. Growth is slowing, however. The annual growth rate is projected at 0.81% in 2027, down from 0.86% in 2024, as the global fertility rate edges down from 2.25 births per woman in 2024 to 2.22 in 2027.
The two most populous countries are moving in opposite directions. India's population is projected at about 1.489 billion in mid-2027 and still rising. China's is projected at about 1.410 billion and gently falling. Sub-Saharan Africa, home to about 1.34 billion people in 2027, is growing at about 2.3% a year and provides a large share of global growth. Europe's population is projected to edge down to about 742 million.
How revisions move the near-term total
A figure for a date just before the revision's release might seem settled, but each revision re-estimates the starting population itself. New census results, survey data and birth registrations can change the estimated number of people alive today, and that change carries straight through to the near-term projection.
The last two full revisions show how large these shifts can be:
| Revision | Its figure for 1 July 2027 | Change from the previous revision |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 edition | 8,333.1 million | — |
| 2022 edition | 8,336.0 million | +2.9 million |
| 2024 edition | 8,369.1 million | +33.1 million |
What drove the last revision
The latest revision is a clear example. It lowered projected births in 2027 by about 2.6 million, reflecting faster falls in fertility, yet it raised the 2027 world total by 33.1 million. The difference came from a higher estimate of the starting population. The estimate for mid-2022 was raised by 46.3 million, and its figure for mid-2024 was 43.1 million above what the previous edition had projected. Most of the 2027 increase came from Central and Southern Asia (+18.2 million), Sub-Saharan Africa (+15.1 million) and Northern Africa and Western Asia (+12.8 million). These were partly offset by cuts for Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (−12.1 million, reflecting a lower figure for China) and Latin America and the Caribbean (−8.1 million).
Country corrections also go the other way. An interim update in January 2026 corrected one West African country's figures after its 2022 census count of 8.2 million proved about 12% below the published estimate of 9.1 million, because an undercount adjustment had been applied twice. Regional and world totals were not changed by that update.
The UAE: growing and living longer
The UAE's population is growing faster than the world's and living longer than most. It is projected to rise from about 11.03 million in 2024 to about 11.76 million in mid-2027, with growth of about 1.4% a year in 2027 against 0.8% worldwide. In the current projections, life expectancy at birth is about 83.5 years in 2027. That is about 9.6 years above the world average of 73.9 and ranks 24th of 237 countries and areas. At the last revision, the UAE's projected population for 2027 was raised by about 1.95 million, reflecting stronger growth than previously estimated. The UAE is small in global terms, but it shows how quickly well-planned cities can grow while their residents live longer, healthier lives.
Scenarios: world population on 1 July 2027
Resolution rule: the world total population on 1 July 2027, in the medium projection of the next full revision of the official global population estimates and projections after the 2024 edition, as first published. That revision is scheduled for public release on 11 July 2027. Interim updates that do not revise world totals do not count. The figure is taken unrounded and then rounded half up to two decimal places in billions, that is, to the nearest 10 million. For example, 8,354.99 million counts as 8.35 billion and 8,355.00 million counts as 8.36 billion. The five ranges use the rounded figure and are mutually exclusive and cover every outcome: 8.32 billion or below; 8.33 to 8.35 billion; 8.36 to 8.38 billion; 8.39 to 8.41 billion; and 8.42 billion or above. Because each band is defined on the rounded figure, every outcome falls in exactly one band: a figure rounding to 8.35 is in band 2, 8.36 is in band 3, 8.38 is in band 3 and 8.39 is in band 4. The forecast scores the next revision's figure, not the number of people actually alive on that date. If no new revision is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn and not scored. In the current projections the figure is 8,369.1 million, which rounds to 8.37 billion. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
The weights below are the Centre's judgement. They are anchored on the current figure of 8,369.1 million and on the shifts of +2.9 million and +33.1 million to the 2027 figure at the last two revisions. With only two past revisions to compare, the weights on the two outer bands rest mainly on the Centre's judgement. The middle band covers a change from about 14.1 million down to about 15.9 million up.
Large downward revision: 8.32 billion or below
This would need a cut of about 44.1 million people or more. Neither of the last two revisions lowered the 2027 figure at all. A cut this large would need several large countries' census results to come in well below current estimates, together with births continuing to fall faster than projected.
Downward revision: 8.33 to 8.35 billion
A cut of about 14.1 to 44.1 million. The last revision lowered projected births in 2027 by about 2.6 million, and fertility in many countries has kept falling. Cuts of 12.1 million for Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and 8.1 million for Latin America and the Caribbean at the last revision show that this is a real possibility. Census results that revise large countries' populations down could also bring it about.
Close to current projections: 8.36 to 8.38 billion
This band covers a change of about −14.1 to +15.9 million. Lower births and a higher starting population could largely cancel out, as they nearly did when the 2022 edition moved the 2027 figure by only 2.9 million. Mid-2027 falls just before the new edition's release, so most of the population it counts is already alive, and a small revision is the most likely single outcome.
Upward revision: 8.39 to 8.41 billion
A rise of about 15.9 to 45.9 million. The latest revision moved the 2027 figure up by 33.1 million, which would fall in this band, after raising its estimate of the 2022 population by 46.3 million. Higher estimates for fast-growing regions, as at the last revision, could repeat. The weight is set above band 2 because both of the last two revisions moved the figure up.
Large upward revision: 8.42 billion or above
A rise of about 45.9 million or more. This is larger than any shift to the 2027 figure seen at the last two revisions, but close to the 46.3 million rise in the estimate for mid-2022 at the last one. New census data from large, fast-growing countries could produce a shift of that size.
What to watch
- The next full revision, scheduled for 11 July 2027: the figure that resolves the scenarios.
- Census results from large countries: these can change starting estimates by millions of people.
- Birth registrations: continued falls in births in many countries would pull the figure down.
- Re-estimates for fast-growing regions: these drove most of the rise at the last revision.
- Interim country corrections: these show where estimates are being revised, even if world totals are unchanged.
Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.