Key figures (as of October 2026)
| World LNG trade, 2025 | 437 million tonnes, a record, up 6.3% |
| Gulf LNG exports, 2025 | about 98 million tonnes, about 22% of world trade (Qatar 81.5, Oman 11.9, UAE 4.7) |
| Qatar LNG capacity | 77 mtpa today; target of about 142 mtpa from the North Field |
| North Field expansions | East 32 mtpa (first train expected in the first half of 2027); South 16 mtpa (2028); West 16 mtpa |
| UAE LNG capacity | Das Island about 6 mtpa; Ruwais LNG 9.6 mtpa from 2028, over 90% contracted; total more than 15 mtpa |
| Oman LNG | 10.4 mtpa capacity; 11.9 million tonnes exported in 2025 |
| Global liquefaction capacity, end-2025 | 524.5 mtpa; 68.4 mtpa of new capacity approved in 2025 |
| LNG demand outlook to 2040 (industry estimates) | up 54% to 68% between 2025 and 2040 |
A growing global market
World LNG trade reached a record 437 million tonnes in 2025. The United States was the largest exporter at 110.7 million tonnes, followed by Qatar. Asia took more than 60% of imports, while Europe grew fastest as it diversified its supplies.
A large wave of new supply is under way. The 68.4 million tonnes of capacity approved in 2025 was the most since 2019, and international estimates put new export capacity coming online between 2025 and 2030 at more than 330 billion cubic metres a year, the largest such wave on record, peaking around 2028. The United States holds the largest share, with Qatar second. Industry estimates see demand rising by 54% to 68% between 2025 and 2040, with Asia accounting for about 70% of the growth.
Qatar: the North Field expansion
Qatar's exports rose by 4.3 million tonnes to 81.5 million tonnes in 2025, from capacity of 77 million tonnes a year. The North Field programme raises that to about 142 million tonnes in three steps. North Field East adds four trains totalling 32 million tonnes, North Field South 16 million tonnes, and North Field West, whose main construction contract was awarded in February 2026, a final 16 million tonnes.
Temporary regional shipping disruptions in 2026 slowed equipment deliveries. Official guidance in September 2026 was that the first North Field East train will start production in the first half of 2027, with a few more during 2027, and North Field South in 2028. Abroad, Golden Pass LNG in Texas, led by QatarEnergy, exported its first cargo in April 2026; its three trains have a capacity of about 18 million tonnes a year, with the last due in 2027.
The UAE: from Das Island to Ruwais
The UAE has exported LNG from Das Island for nearly five decades, from a plant of about 6 million tonnes a year upgraded in 2025. Ruwais LNG in Abu Dhabi is the next step. The investment decision came in June 2024, with a construction contract worth more than US$5.5 billion. ADNOC holds 60%, and bp, Mitsui, Shell and TotalEnergies hold 10% each. Its two electrically driven trains of 4.8 million tonnes each will make it the first LNG export plant in the Middle East and North Africa to run on clean power.
Official plans have the first train on stream in the second half of 2028 and the second in early 2029, taking UAE capacity to more than 15 million tonnes a year. In January 2026 construction was ahead of the approved schedule, with the expected start of commercial operations unchanged. A 15-year Japanese agreement in July 2026 took long-term commitments above 90% of capacity, and an October 2026 deal will supply up to 2 million tonnes to Thailand from 2027.
Oman and the Gulf's place in the market
Oman exported 11.9 million tonnes in 2025, above its nameplate capacity of 10.4 million tonnes a year. Marsa LNG at Sohar, a fully electrified 1 million-tonne plant with its own solar farm, is due in 2028 as the region's first LNG bunkering hub.
Together, Gulf producers exported about 98 million tonnes in 2025, about 22% of world trade. Long-term contracts underpin the expansion: in February 2026 Qatar signed a 27-year agreement to supply 3 million tonnes a year to Japan from 2028. Industry data put Gulf projects at about a quarter of the liquefaction capacity under construction or approved worldwide.
What it means
The Gulf enters the second half of the decade as an anchor of the world LNG market, with Qatar's North Field the largest single expansion and Ruwais LNG adding low-carbon capacity from the UAE. With most new volumes already under long-term contracts in Asia and Europe, the main question to 2030 is timing: how quickly each new train starts and ramps up.
Scenarios: date of the first LNG cargo from Ruwais LNG
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the schedules and data above.
Scenarios revised on 30 October 2026 to a finer split.
The variable is the loading date of the first LNG export cargo from Ruwais LNG, as officially announced by the operator. Only a loaded export cargo counts, not first gas or first LNG production. The forecast is expected to resolve by the end of 2028; if no first cargo has been announced by 31 December 2028, it resolves to band 5. The bands cover every possible date: exactly 31 March 2028 falls in band 1, 30 June 2028 in band 2, 1 July and 30 September 2028 in band 3, and 1 October and 31 December 2028 in band 4. A change of ownership or capacity does not affect the forecast; if the project is restructured so that it no longer proceeds as an LNG export plant at Al Ruwais, the forecast is withdrawn.
Well ahead: on or before 31 March 2028
Construction was ahead of the approved schedule in January 2026, but a first cargo this early would need commissioning to finish months ahead of plan. No earlier date has been published, so the weight is small.
Early: 1 April to 30 June 2028
A modest gain on the schedule would bring the first cargo into the second quarter. The weight is the larger share of the former early band because the room created by early construction is more likely to be weeks than months.
On schedule, earlier half: 1 July to 30 September 2028
The official plan has the first train on stream in the second half of 2028, restated as a 2028 start in July and October 2026, with over 90% of capacity committed. A third-quarter cargo needs the train to start early in that window.
On schedule, later half: 1 October to 31 December 2028
Official guidance points to a first cargo by the end of 2028, and a first cargo follows weeks of commissioning after a train starts. That makes the final quarter the single most likely window, so it takes the larger share of the former central band.
Later start: on or after 1 January 2029
A first cargo follows weeks of commissioning, so a train starting late in 2028 could carry it into 2029, and 2026 shipping disruptions slowed equipment deliveries to some Gulf projects. The weight stays below the central window because Ruwais construction has been ahead of schedule. Edges: each scenario includes its last day. Exactly 31 March 2028 falls in scenario 1, 30 June 2028 in scenario 2, 30 September 2028 in scenario 3 and 31 December 2028 in scenario 4. If no first cargo has been announced by 31 December 2028, scenario 5 applies. The loading date is the date stated by the operator; if only a month is stated, that month is used.
What to watch
- North Field East: first LNG, expected in the first half of 2027, and the pace of later trains.
- Ruwais LNG: construction updates in quarterly results, and any announced date for first LNG or first cargo.
- North Field South and Marsa LNG: progress towards their planned 2028 start-ups.
- Contracts: new long-term agreements with buyers in Asia and Europe.
- Global supply wave: new export capacity starting up in the United States and elsewhere.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.