The Copper Price in 2027

Key figures (as of 30 October 2026)

A strong rise through 2026

The annual average rose 8.8% in 2025 compared with 2024, and most of the rise came late in the year. The third quarter of 2025 averaged USD 9,808 and the fourth quarter USD 11,112, with December at USD 11,785. The rise continued into 2026. The first quarter averaged USD 12,831, the second USD 13,349 and the third USD 14,114.

Monthly averages as shown in the lender's October 2026 edition. The October 2026 average is due in its next monthly update.

September 2026 had the highest monthly average of 2026 so far. The average of the monthly figures from January to September 2026, USD 13,431, was 7.2% below the September average, on the Centre's own calculation. The lender links the strength of metals prices in 2026 to demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres.

Supply and demand

In October 2026, the international copper statistics body projected that world refined copper usage could grow by about 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, each compared with the year before. It projected refined production growth of about 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, as new and expanded smelters and refineries ramp up. On that basis it expects a refined market surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026, widening to about 368,000 tonnes in 2027. It noted that actual balances have, on recent occasions, differed from its forecasts. Its preliminary data show an apparent refined surplus of about 218,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, compared with about 158,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Mine production fell by 0.9% in the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025, and the body projects mine output growth of about 3.1% in 2027.

Copper matters to the Gulf economy. Copper wire is among the UAE's main non-oil exports, alongside gold and jewellery, aluminium, plastics and perfumes. The international copper statistics body expects better operating rates at copper semi-finished product plants in the Middle East to help support world usage growth in 2027.

The official outlook

In its October 2026 commodity outlook, the lender forecast a copper price of about USD 13,200 per tonne in 2026, up 32.7% on 2025, USD 13,000 in 2027 and USD 12,500 in 2028. Its 2027 figure is 1.5% below its 2026 forecast, and 18.2% above the USD 11,000 it forecast for 2027 in April 2026. It expects metals prices overall to ease by about 3% in 2027 compared with 2026. Its forecast is for the same series used to resolve this study.

What it means

Copper prices rose through most of 2026, and the third-quarter average was 43.9% above the same quarter of 2025. Official projections point to a modest easing in 2027 as refined supply grows faster than usage. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on USD 12,500 or more in 2027 is 76%, and the combined weight on USD 14,000 or more is 40%.

Scenarios: the average copper price in 2027

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.

The variable is the 2027 annual average copper price in the international development lender's monthly commodity price data, for grade A copper cathodes and wire bars on the benchmark metals exchange, in USD per tonne, as first published. The lender usually first publishes the annual figure in its first annual data edition of the following year, in early January, so this study is expected to resolve in early January 2028. The figure is taken with the decimals as first published, then rounded half up to a whole US dollar, once, before it is placed in a band, so USD 12,499.5 counts as USD 12,500. Later revisions, re-roundings in later editions, forecasts, partial-year averages and averages published by other bodies do not count. If the lender renames, rebases or replaces the series with an officially named successor copper price series before or during 2027, the successor's 2027 annual figure is used. If no annual figure is published by 30 June 2028, the Centre's simple mean of the benchmark exchange's first-published official cash settlement prices for grade A copper for every 2027 trading day is used, rounded the same way; if the exchange replaces that price with an officially named successor, the successor's prices are used for the days they cover. Withdrawn if neither is available by 31 December 2028. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly USD 11,000 falls in band 2, exactly USD 12,500 in band 3, exactly USD 14,000 in band 4 and exactly USD 15,500 in band 5.

What to watch

1. Monthly price data: the lender's monthly averages for October 2026 and later months, which set the starting point for 2027.
2. Monthly supply and demand data: the international copper statistics body's monthly bulletin, with preliminary figures on the refined market balance.
3. Exchange prices: the benchmark exchange's daily official cash settlement prices.
4. Supply and demand forecast: the international copper statistics body's next forecast for 2027 and 2028, after its meetings in April 2027.
5. Official outlook: the lender's next commodity outlook, usually published in April.

Figures as of 30 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.