Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Index, annual average 2025 | 127.2 points, 4.3% above 2024 |
| Index, annual average 2024 | 122.0 points, 2.1% below 2023 |
| Index, September 2026 | 136.0 points, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from September 2025 |
| Index, January to September 2026 average | 130.2 points |
| Distance from the March 2022 monthly peak, September 2026 | 24.3 points (15.1%) below |
| Highest annual average in the series | 144.5 points, in 2022 |
| World cereal production forecast, 2026 | 2,979 million tonnes, 2.1% below the 2025 record, the second largest on record |
The index and its annual averages
The index measures the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It is the average of five commodity group sub-indices (cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar), weighted by each group's average export share over 2014-2016. A new reading is released each month, usually in the first week, and the annual average for a year is first published with the December reading in early January of the following year.
| Year | Annual average (points) |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 94.9 |
| 2020 | 98.1 |
| 2021 | 125.7 |
| 2022 | 144.5 |
| 2023 | 124.5 |
| 2024 | 122.0 |
| 2025 | 127.2 |
Annual averages as shown in the current official dataset. The 2024 and 2025 values match the figures first published in early January 2025 and January 2026.
Prices surged in 2021 and 2022, then fell back in 2023 and 2024. In 2025 they rose again by 4.3%, as higher world prices for vegetable oils and dairy products outweighed lower cereal and sugar prices.
The 2026 path so far
| Month (2026) | Index (points) |
|---|---|
| January | 124.1 |
| February | 125.5 |
| March | 128.7 |
| April | 131.0 |
| May | 131.0 |
| June | 130.1 |
| July | 131.7 |
| August | 134.0 |
| September | 136.0 |
Values as shown in the official dataset released on 2 October 2026. Recent months can be revised, mainly because meat prices for the latest months are partly projected when the index is first computed.
The index has risen in most months of 2026. Its average for January to September, 130.2 points, is already above the 2025 annual average. September's 136.0 points is the latest reading; the October reading is due on 6 November 2026.
The five groups in September 2026
| Group | Sub-index, September 2026 (points) | Change on a year earlier | 2025 annual average, change on 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cereals | 122.8 | +17.2% | -4.9% |
| Vegetable oils | 198.6 | +18.3% | +17.1% |
| Meat | 127.9 | in line with a year earlier | +5.1% |
| Dairy | 119.1 | -19.1% | +13.2% |
| Sugar | 114.0 | +14.7% | -17.0% |
- Cereals. World wheat prices rose 6.3% in September to their highest level since August 2023, and maize prices rose 5.6% to their highest in more than three years. Logistical constraints in the Black Sea region, lower-than-expected maize yields in the United States and less export availability in Brazil drove the rise.
- Vegetable oils. Palm oil prices rose for a fourth month on strong import demand and concern over dry weather in Southeast Asia. Soy oil prices stayed well above year-earlier levels on demand from the biofuel sector.
- Sugar. Prices rose for a third month to their highest level since April 2025, on prospects of tighter supplies in the 2026/27 season: smaller beet output in Europe, lower output forecast in Thailand, and concern over below-normal rainfall in India as El Niño strengthens.
- Dairy and meat. These two groups have held the index down. Dairy prices were 19.1% below a year earlier, as cheese and butter prices fell, and meat prices eased on ample poultry and pig meat supplies.
Forces pulling up: El Niño, energy and shipping
- El Niño. A strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with a more than 83% chance, and the chance of a record-strength event is put at 83% for October to December 2026. Dry weather in Southeast Asia, below-normal monsoon rainfall in India and a risk of below-average late-season rainfall in Australia are already weighing on prospects for palm oil, sugar, rice and wheat.
- Energy, fertiliser and freight. High fuel, fertiliser and freight costs have added support to crops used for biofuels, such as maize, soy oil and palm oil. A major international commodity outlook published on 28 October 2026 expects energy prices to rise 32% in 2026, and food commodity prices, on its own measure, to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, as disrupted grain shipments, El Niño and high fuel and fertiliser costs raise agricultural costs.
- Grain trade. Logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region have constrained wheat and maize exports from the region and pushed importers towards other origins.
Forces pulling down: harvests, stocks and easing costs
- A large harvest. World cereal production in 2026 is forecast at 2,979 million tonnes, the second largest on record, though 2.1% below the 2025 record. World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast at 950.0 million tonnes, broadly unchanged from their opening level, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.7%.
- Easing energy prices. The same October outlook expects energy prices to moderate in 2027, with the main crude oil benchmark easing from an average of US$91 a barrel in 2026 to US$79 in 2027, and fertiliser prices returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
- El Niño fading. Official outlooks give El Niño a 45% chance for April to June 2027 and 17% for May to July 2027, with neutral conditions most likely by mid-2027. In the Centre's judgement, weather effects on harvests lag the event, so any relief would come mainly in the second half of the year.
- Dairy and meat. Strong export competition has pulled cheese and butter prices well below a year earlier, and meat prices eased in September on ample supplies, which offsets part of the rise in crop prices.
Scenarios: the 2027 annual average of the index
Resolution rule: the annual average of the main international monthly index of world food commodity prices (2014-2016 = 100) for calendar year 2027, as first published, expected with the December 2027 reading in early January 2028. Earlier forecasts and later revisions do not count. If the published average carries more than one decimal, it is rounded half-up to one decimal before banding: 132.95 counts as 133.0. A value on an edge falls in the higher band: 125.0 is in band 2, 133.0 is in band 3, 141.0 is in band 4 and 149.0 is in band 5. If no 2027 annual average has been published by 30 June 2028, the forecast is withdrawn. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
Below 125.0 points
This band needs prices to fall back below the 2025 level of 127.2 and below every monthly reading since February 2026. It would need a fast end to El Niño with little damage to crops, a sharp fall in energy and freight costs, and an easing of grain trade disruptions, so that vegetable oil and cereal prices drop back. Annual falls of this size have happened, as in 2023, which keeps the band real, but it is less likely given the current level.
125.0 to 132.9 points
This band covers a year in which prices ease back from their late-2026 level to around the 2025 and 2026 averages. It fits a path in which the large cereal harvest, easing energy prices and lower dairy and meat prices offset most of the El Niño effect, and crop prices fall in the second half of 2027 as El Niño fades.
133.0 to 140.9 points
This band holds the central estimate. It includes the September 2026 reading of 136.0 points, and it matches a year in which prices stay close to their late-2026 level: firm in the first half as El Niño affects crops in Asia and Australia, then steadier as energy and fertiliser costs ease. The weight is the Centre's judgement.
141.0 to 148.9 points
This band would need a further clear rise from the late-2026 level, approaching or passing the 2022 record annual average of 144.5. It fits a case in which El Niño damages palm oil, sugar, rice and wheat crops at the same time, and grain shipments stay disrupted through 2027. Upside risks named in the October outlook add weight here.
149.0 points or more
This band would set a new record for the annual average. It would need several shocks at once: a severe El Niño effect on harvests, higher energy prices and lasting disruption to grain trade. The October outlook's adverse case, in which these risks combine and its food price measure ends up above its 2022 level, keeps this tail real. The large cereal harvest and stocks argue against a larger weight.
What to watch
- Monthly readings of the index: 6 November and 4 December 2026, then monthly through 2027 (usually on a Friday early in the month). The first full-year 2027 average is due in early January 2028.
- El Niño through early 2027: the monthly official outlook, next on 12 November 2026, and its effect on rainfall in Southeast Asia, India and Australia.
- Harvests: the monthly world cereal supply and demand brief, the size of the 2026/27 Southern Hemisphere wheat crop, and planting for 2027.
- Vegetable oils and sugar: palm oil output in Southeast Asia, sugar crop prospects in India, Thailand and Brazil.
- Energy, fertiliser and freight costs: crude oil prices, fertiliser prices, and shipping through the Black Sea.
Figures as of 30 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.