UAE Cities: Dubai Property Prices to Q4 2028

Key figures (as of October 2026)

What the Dubai index measures

This study resolves on Dubai's official residential real estate price index, a city-level index for the emirate of Dubai covering all residential properties, villas and apartments together. It is published each quarter by the emirate's official statistics body with the emirate's official land and property authority, drawing on sales registered with the authority, with separate series for villas and apartments. Results are released some months after the quarter ends: the figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 were announced on 19 May 2026, and they are the latest published as of late October 2026. The published release does not describe how the index adjusts for the mix of homes sold, so a change in that mix, such as a larger share of new homes, can move it.

Steadier growth after a fast 2024

The index rose 11.62% in 2024 on 2023, including a rise of 1.99% in the fourth quarter of 2024 on the third. The index rose 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 on the third, to stand 8.9% above a year earlier. Over the full year 2025 the index rose 9.81% on 2024, a moderation from the pace of 2024.

Villas have led the rise. The villa index rose 14.83% in 2025 and stood at 224.97 in the fourth quarter, against 147.06 for apartments, which rose 7.38% in the year.

Prices, rents and yields

The official index gives a price level relative to a base period, not a price per square metre, and no official rent measure of the same kind is published alongside it. No price per square metre or gross yield is given, because the Centre computes these only from official measures of the same kind.

Credit, demand and supply

The UAE's policy base rate is anchored to the US central bank's rate on reserve balances. The central bank held it at 3.90% on 28 October 2026, after the US decision earlier that day to keep its rate unchanged. Mortgage costs in Dubai therefore follow US policy, and the next US decision is due on 9 December 2026.

Demand is supported by a growing population and a large programme of new homes, which the Centre's separate housing supply study covers. As more of those homes are completed, price growth is likely to settle at a steadier pace while new supply is absorbed.

What it means

Dubai's prices rose 11.62% in 2024 and 9.81% in 2025, a moderation to a steadier pace, led by villas. The central case is continued growth at a moderate pace over 2027 and 2028, with a steadier path as new homes are completed and absorbed. Because the index is published some months after each quarter ends, the starting point for this forecast is expected to be known only in 2027.

Scenarios: the change in the Dubai residential price index from Q4 2026 to Q4 2028

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.

The variable is the nominal change in the official Dubai residential price index, general index, published by the statistics body with the land and property authority, quarterly, from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028. This page resolves on the official city price index for Dubai, all residential properties, quarterly. If the statistics body publishes this two-year change directly, that figure is used. Otherwise the Centre computes it from the two quarterly index levels as published in the first release that contains the fourth quarter of 2028, expected around the middle of 2029. Later revisions are ignored. If the index has been rebased by then, the change is taken from both quarters on the new base as published in that release; if only the fourth quarter of 2026 is on the old base, the Centre chains the old and new bases through a quarter published on both, on the Centre's own calculation. The change is calculated from the published index levels for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2028, on the Centre's own calculation, and rounded half up to one decimal place once, before it is placed in a band. The figure is read in percent, so a fall of 0.5% counts as -0.5%. A figure with more than one decimal place is rounded half up to one decimal place, once, before it is placed in a band, so 11.95% counts as 12.0%. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly 5.0% falls in band 2, exactly 12.0% in band 3, exactly 20.0% in band 4 and exactly 28.0% in band 5. If the statistics body's own release of the index is not available, the same general index as published on the authority's open-data portal is used instead for the same two quarters, on the same rules. Only that same index, with the same base, qualifies; any other price index on the portal does not. If no figure for the fourth quarter of 2028 is published by 31 December 2029, the forecast is withdrawn.

What to watch

1. Quarterly index: the first, second and third quarters of 2026, which show the path to the starting point of this forecast.
2. Villas and apartments: whether the gap between the faster villa series and the steadier apartment series narrows.
3. Policy rates: the UAE base rate, which follows US decisions, the next due on 9 December 2026.
4. New homes: completions in 2027 and 2028, and how quickly they are taken up by new residents.
5. Release timing: how soon after each quarter the official index is published.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.