Key figures (as of 31 October 2026)
| 2027 race dates | 2-25 July 2027 (114th edition) |
| Start and finish | Edinburgh (stage 1, Edinburgh to Carlisle); Paris (stage 21) |
| Route | 21 stages, 3,479 km before final confirmation, 3 rest days |
| Stage types | 7 flat, 6 hilly, 6 mountain, 2 individual time trials |
| Time trials | 38 km (stage 7, Blois to Chambord) and 33 km (stage 16, Toulouse): 71 km, the most since 2012 |
| Summit finishes | 3: Grand Colombier (stage 9), Les Saisies (stage 11), Col du Portet (stage 18, 2,215 m, the highest point of the race) |
| Total climbing | 53,450 m |
| Time bonuses | 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three at the finish of every road stage |
| 2026 podium | Pogacar; Evenepoel at 6 minutes 26 seconds; Isaac del Toro at 9 minutes 42 seconds |
| Most overall wins | 5, shared by five riders; Pogacar reached five in 2026 |
The roll of honour since 2020
| Year | Overall winner | Runner-up | Winning margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Tadej Pogacar | Primoz Roglic | 59 seconds |
| 2021 | Tadej Pogacar | Jonas Vingegaard | 5 minutes 20 seconds |
| 2022 | Jonas Vingegaard | Tadej Pogacar | 2 minutes 43 seconds |
| 2023 | Jonas Vingegaard | Tadej Pogacar | 7 minutes 29 seconds |
| 2024 | Tadej Pogacar | Jonas Vingegaard | 6 minutes 17 seconds |
| 2025 | Tadej Pogacar | Jonas Vingegaard | 4 minutes 24 seconds |
| 2026 | Tadej Pogacar | Remco Evenepoel | 6 minutes 26 seconds |
Only two riders have won the race since 2020, and every winning margin since 2021 has been more than two and a half minutes. In 2026, Paul Seixas finished fourth at the age of 19 on his first Tour start.
The 2027 route
The race starts in Scotland for the first time. It is the northernmost start in the race's history and the third in Great Britain, after London in 2007 and Yorkshire in 2014.
The route differs from recent editions in two ways. First, the two long, largely flat time trials on stages 7 and 16 give a strong time triallist a chance to gain minutes on pure climbers. Second, the high mountains come later: the first summit finish is on stage 9 at the Grand Colombier, followed by the Alps on stages 10 and 11. The race is expected to be decided in the Pyrenees, where stage 18 crosses the Tourmalet before finishing on the Col du Portet. The race organiser describes the last week as the decisive showdown.
The leading contenders
Start lists are not published this far ahead. Teams usually confirm their riders' programmes at training camps in December and January. The riders are described here only as reported.
- Tadej Pogacar (28 at the start). He has won the race five times and has finished on the podium in all seven of his starts. He has named the Tour, the World Championships and the Vuelta a Espana as his main goals for 2027. His 2026 season ended in late August, when he crashed out of the Vuelta a Espana with a broken collarbone. He returned to training in October. His contract with his team runs well beyond 2027.
- Remco Evenepoel (27 at the start). He was second in 2026 and third in 2024, and won a fourth straight world time-trial title in September 2026. His team has said the 71 km of time trials give it every reason to aim for the yellow jersey. His 2027 programme has not been confirmed.
- Jonas Vingegaard (30 at the start). He won the race in 2022 and 2023 and was second in 2021, 2024 and 2025. In 2026 he won the Giro d'Italia, then left the Tour on stage 15 with a broken collarbone while lying second overall. His team says the Tour remains a major objective. It has not decided whether he will ride the Giro again before the Tour.
- Paul Seixas (20 at the start). He was fourth in 2026 and won Il Lombardia in October 2026. He has said his home World Championships in August 2027 are a priority. He and his team have not decided whether his Grand Tour of 2027 will be the Tour or the Giro.
- Others: Isaac del Toro (third in 2026, and a team-mate of Pogacar), Florian Lipowitz (third in 2025), Mattias Skjelmose, Juan Ayuso, Lenny Martinez and others.
Reasoning from the evidence
The Centre weighed four kinds of evidence:
- Recent dominance. Pogacar has won five of the last seven Tours and finished second in the other two. Since 2020, no rider other than Pogacar and Vingegaard has won the race.
- Route fit. The 71 km of time trials and the smaller number of summit finishes help a time triallist such as Evenepoel, and they reduce the chances for pure climbers to gain time. In the Centre's judgement, the route narrows Pogacar's advantage without removing it.
- Age and health. Pogacar will be 28 and Evenepoel 27. Both Pogacar and Vingegaard broke a collarbone in 2026; Pogacar returned to training in October. Vingegaard will be 30 and has a less suitable route.
- Uncertain starts. Vingegaard and Seixas may ride the Giro, and every programme is still to be confirmed. A rider who does not start cannot win, and the weights allow for this.
No single rival has a case close to Pogacar's. The Centre therefore names four riders and keeps a share for the rest of a deep field.
Scenarios: the 2027 Tour de France overall winner
Resolution rule: the forecast resolves on the rider officially declared overall winner of the 2027 Tour de France at the finish of the final stage, scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2027 in Paris. The first-published official final general classification counts. Later disqualifications, appeals or results changes are ignored. If the race is shortened, the general classification the race organiser publishes as final counts. If the 2027 race is not held, or no overall winner is declared by 31 August 2027, the forecast is withdrawn. The five outcomes are mutually exclusive and cover every possible winner: each of the four named riders, or any other rider. The weights are whole percentages that sum to 100. If a named rider withdraws or does not start, his weight is not moved to other outcomes and his outcome resolves as not won; the forecast is scored on the weights as published here. Any later change is issued as a separate dated revision and does not replace this forecast. The cut-off for any dated revision is 23:59 UTC+4 on Thursday 1 July 2027, the day before the race starts in Edinburgh; no revision is accepted after that. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. Because the five outcomes have no natural order, the forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score only; the ranked probability score does not apply.
Tadej Pogacar
Pogacar has won the last three Tours, each by more than four minutes, and has never finished lower than second. The Tour is one of his three named goals for 2027. The weight stays just above one in two, rather than higher, for three reasons: the long time trials suit Evenepoel, he is returning from a serious crash, and a three-week race always carries a risk of illness or a fall.
Remco Evenepoel
Evenepoel was the closest rider to Pogacar in 2026 and is the reigning world time-trial champion. The route gives him two long tests against the clock, and his team has said it will aim for the yellow jersey. His weight is limited because he has not yet matched Pogacar over three weeks: he finished 6 minutes 26 seconds behind him in 2026.
Jonas Vingegaard
Vingegaard is the only rider to have beaten Pogacar at the Tour since 2020, and he won the Giro in 2026. He was second overall when he left the 2026 Tour. His weight reflects a route with fewer summit finishes than he would like, a possible Giro start before the Tour, and his return from a broken collarbone.
Paul Seixas
Seixas finished fourth on his debut at 19 and has since won Il Lombardia. His 2027 Grand Tour choice has not been made, and the Giro is a real option. The weight combines strong progress with roughly even chances that he starts the Tour at all.
Any other rider
This outcome covers everyone else, including del Toro, Lipowitz, Skjelmose, Ayuso and Martinez. No single rider in this group has a case strong enough for its own outcome, but together they cover the chance that the leading riders are absent, fall or fall short. It is level with the Evenepoel outcome, and below Pogacar's.
What to watch
- December 2026 and January 2027 training camps: confirmed programmes for Pogacar, Evenepoel, Vingegaard and Seixas, especially whether Vingegaard or Seixas chooses the Giro.
- Pogacar's return to racing: his first stage race of 2027 and his form after the 2026 crash.
- Spring stage races and the Giro d'Italia (May 2027): form and any injuries among the named riders.
- The main June stage races in France and Switzerland: the usual final tests of form before the Tour.
- Team selections in late June 2027: the confirmed line-ups for each team.
- 2 July 2027: the start in Edinburgh. Then the time trials on stages 7 and 16 and the Pyrenean summit finish on the Col du Portet on stage 18.
Figures as of 31 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.