Men's Cricket World Cup 2027: Who Lifts the Trophy?

Key figures (as of 31 October 2026)

The roll of honour

Only six teams have ever won the tournament. Australia have played in eight of the 13 finals. The last time the tournament was held in Southern Africa, in 2003, Australia beat India by 125 runs in the final at the same ground, the Wanderers. Three of the last four editions were won by a host: India in 2011, Australia in 2015 and England in 2019.

The 2027 format

The format is new. It has three rounds before the semi-finals:

• Super Series (2 to 6 October, Windhoek): the three lowest-ranked qualifiers, the second, third and fourth teams from the qualifying tournament, play each other once. The top team joins the group stage.
• Group stage (from 7 October, 30 matches): 12 teams in two groups of six, each playing the other five once. Group A: India, Australia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Qualifier A. Group B: New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka, England, Bangladesh and Qualifier B. The top three in each group and the best fourth-placed team go through.
• Super 7 (25 October to 14 November, 21 matches): the seven teams play each other once, with no points carried over. The top four reach the semi-finals, where first meets fourth and second meets third.

A team must therefore come through a group of five matches, six more Super 7 matches, a semi-final and the final. For fixture planning, seven teams have been pre-seeded into Super 7 positions: India, Australia, Pakistan, England, New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka. A team that qualifies in place of a pre-seeded team takes over that team's position.

The opening group matches include India against Australia at Newlands in Cape Town on 7 October and India against Pakistan at the Wanderers on 10 October. Zimbabwe return to the tournament after a 12-year absence. Namibia, the third co-host, did not qualify automatically and is still on the qualifying route.

The leading contenders

• India. First on the team ratings at 115, six points clear of second place. They won the 2025 Champions Trophy without losing a match and reached the 2023 World Cup final after winning all ten of their earlier matches. In January 2026 they lost a home one-day series 2-1 to New Zealand, New Zealand's first series win in India. A five-match one-day series in New Zealand runs from 4 to 15 November 2026.
• Australia. The defending champions and six-time winners, including in 2003 in South Africa. They are fifth on the ratings at 102. In September 2026 they lost a three-match series in South Africa 2-1, losing in Durban and Johannesburg before winning the third match.
• South Africa. Co-hosts, third on the ratings at 104. They beat Australia at home in September 2026, at two of the 2027 venues. They have reached the semi-finals five times (1992, 1999, 2007, 2015 and 2023) but have never won the tournament.
• New Zealand. Second on the ratings at 109. They won their first one-day series in India in January 2026 and reached the 2025 Champions Trophy final. They were runners-up in 2015 and 2019 but have never won the title.
• Others. Pakistan (fourth at 103, champions in 1992), Sri Lanka (sixth at 95, champions in 1996), Afghanistan (seventh at 94), England (eighth at 93, champions in 2019), Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and the four qualifiers. The West Indies, two-time champions, must come through the qualifying tournament.

Reasoning from the evidence

The Centre weighed four kinds of evidence:

• Ratings. The team ratings put India clearly first, with New Zealand, South Africa, Pakistan and Australia in a close group from 102 to 109. The ratings measure results over several years, so they change slowly.
• Recent major results. India won the last major one-day tournament, the 2025 Champions Trophy, and Australia won the last World Cup. New Zealand reached the 2025 final and have since won in India.
• Home advantage. All of the knockout matches are in South Africa. Home teams know these grounds best, and South Africa beat Australia on two of them in September 2026.
• History and format. Six teams share every title since 1975, and Australia have the deepest record in finals. The new format adds a Super 7 round, so a strong team has more matches in which to recover from a defeat before the knockouts. A single semi-final or final can still be lost on one day.

India have the strongest combined case on ratings and recent major results. But no team deserves a weight near one in three in a 14-team tournament that ends in two knockout rounds, so the Centre names four teams and keeps a large share for the rest of the field.

Scenarios: the 2027 Men's Cricket World Cup winner

Resolution rule: the forecast resolves on the team officially declared winner of the final of the 2027 Men's Cricket World Cup, scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2027 at the Wanderers in Johannesburg. A result decided on the reserve day, by a reduced-overs method, by a super over or by any other tie-break in the playing conditions counts. The result as officially declared at the end of the final counts; later disciplinary or legal decisions are ignored. If the final is moved to another date or venue, the winner of that final still counts. If the tournament is not held, if the title is shared, or if no winner is declared by 21 December 2027, the forecast is withdrawn. The five outcomes are mutually exclusive and cover every possible winner: each of the four named teams, or any other team. The weights are whole percentages that sum to 100. If a named team is eliminated, its weight is not moved to other outcomes; the forecast is scored on the weights as published here. Any later change is issued as a separate dated revision and does not replace this forecast. The cut-off for any dated revision is 23:59 UTC+4 on Friday 1 October 2027, the day before the first match of the tournament on 2 October; no revision is accepted after that. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. Because the five outcomes have no natural order, the tournament outcome is scored with the multi-category Brier score only; the ranked probability score does not apply.

What to watch

1. 4 to 15 November 2026: the five-match one-day series in New Zealand, a direct test of India against New Zealand.
2. December 2026: the qualifier play-off, which decides the last four teams in the qualifying tournament.
3. February and March 2027: the 10-team qualifying tournament in South Africa and Namibia, which fills the last four places. Its winner goes straight into Group A or B, and the next three play the Super Series.
4. Through 2027: one-day series results and changes to the team ratings, especially among New Zealand, South Africa, Pakistan and Australia.
5. The weeks before the tournament: squad announcements and fitness news for the leading teams.
6. 2 October 2027: the Super Series opens in Windhoek. 7 October: India against Australia in Cape Town. 10 October: India against Pakistan in Johannesburg.
7. 25 October to 14 November 2027: the Super 7 round. 17 and 18 November: the semi-finals. 21 November: the final in Johannesburg.

Figures as of 31 October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.