European Cities: Amsterdam Property Prices to Q4 2028

Key figures (as of October 2026)

What the Amsterdam index measures

This study resolves on the official price index for existing owner-occupied homes in the municipality of Amsterdam, a city-level index. The national statistics office compiles it each quarter with the land registry from every registered sale of an existing home. The index is quality-adjusted: each sale price is compared with the official tax valuation of the same home, so a change in the mix of homes sold does not move the index. The average sale price is a simple average of the same sales and is not quality-adjusted; it is shown for scale only. No official price per square metre is published for the city, so none is given here.

Amsterdam is lagging the country

The Amsterdam index rose by 9% to 10% a year in the second half of 2024, then slowed through 2025 to annual rates of 0.8% to 1.9% in 2026. The national index has slowed too, but from a higher pace, and was still rising 3.4% a year in the third quarter of 2026. The Amsterdam index passed its 2022 high in 2024 and stood 7.0% above its second-quarter 2022 level in the third quarter of 2026, on the Centre's own calculation. The number of homes sold in the city in the third quarter was slightly below a year earlier.

Two-year changes since 2019

On the Centre's own calculation from the published index levels, the change in the Amsterdam index from one fourth quarter to the fourth quarter two years later was 21.7% (2019 to 2021), 18.9% (2020 to 2022), 2.0% (2021 to 2023), 9.9% (2022 to 2024) and 10.8% (2023 to 2025). Taking every quarter since 2015, two-year changes have ranged from -0.6% (first quarter of 2022 to first quarter of 2024) to 30.1% (second quarter of 2015 to second quarter of 2017).

Rents and yields

No gross yield is given, because no official rent level and no official price per square metre are published for the city. The statistics office's annual survey shows that rents in Amsterdam rose 4.3% in July 2026 on a year earlier, including rent changes when tenants moved, and 3.6% excluding them. Nationally the rises were 4.4% and 3.8%.

Credit, demand and policy

The average rate on new home loans in the Netherlands was 3.91% in August 2026, against 3.49% a year earlier; it has risen each month since March. The euro area's central bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% in September, saying financing conditions had tightened and energy prices kept rising, and held it on 29 October.

On policy, a national law in force since 1 July 2024 extended rent regulation to mid-priced homes: for new leases signed since then, homes with a quality score in the middle range of the official points system have a maximum rent. The law applies across the country, including Amsterdam.

What forecasters expect

A major credit rating agency's July 2026 outlook expected national house prices to rise 5.3% in 2026, 4.4% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028. Together, the 2027 and 2028 figures imply about 9.6% over two years on the Centre's own calculation. They are national figures for calendar years, not the Amsterdam index, and Amsterdam has grown well below the national rate in 2026.

What it means

Amsterdam prices are above their 2022 high but have nearly stopped rising, while prices in the rest of the country are still climbing. Mortgage rates have risen since the spring. The central case is slow growth over 2027 and 2028, with a modest pick-up toward the national pace almost as likely.

Scenarios: the change in the Amsterdam existing-home price index from Q4 2026 to Q4 2028

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.

The variable is the nominal change in the official quarterly price index for existing owner-occupied homes in the municipality of Amsterdam, published by the national statistics office with the land registry, from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2028. If the statistics office publishes this two-year change directly, that figure is used. Otherwise the Centre computes it from the two index levels as published in the first release that contains the fourth quarter of 2028, normally in late January 2029. If the index has been rebased by then, both levels are taken on the same base from that release. Later revisions are ignored. The figure is read in percent, so a fall of 0.5% counts as -0.5%. A figure with more than one decimal place is rounded half up to one decimal place, once, before it is placed in a band, so 3.95% counts as 4.0%. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly 0.0% falls in band 2, exactly 4.0% in band 3, exactly 8.0% in band 4 and exactly 12.0% in band 5. If no figure for the fourth quarter of 2028 is published by 30 June 2029, the forecast is withdrawn.

What to watch

1. Quarterly index: the Amsterdam readings for the fourth quarter of 2026, which set the starting point for this forecast.
2. Mortgage rates: the average rate on new home loans, which rose from 3.47% in March to 3.91% in August 2026.
3. Sales: the number of existing homes sold in the city each quarter.
4. Gap with the country: whether Amsterdam's annual rate moves back toward the national rate.
5. Rental market: rent changes and the supply of rented homes under the 2024 rules.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.