The Solar Reset: Global Solar Capacity Added in 2027

Key figures (as of October 2026)

Three record years

Solar has led the growth of the world's power systems for several years. According to the main international renewable capacity statistics, the world added 345.5 GW of solar capacity in 2023, 452 GW in 2024 and 511 GW in 2025, a new record each year. Almost all of it is solar photovoltaic: 510.3 GW of the 511.2 GW added in 2025. Solar made up about three quarters of the 692 GW of renewable capacity added in 2025, and global solar capacity reached about 2.4 TW by the end of the year. Renewables now make up 49% of the world's installed power capacity.

The pace of growth has slowed even as the totals rose. On the Centre's own calculation from the figures as first reported, additions rose by 106.5 GW, or 31%, from 345.5 GW in 2023 to 452 GW in 2024, and by 59 GW, or 13%, from 452 GW in 2024 to 511 GW in 2025.

Two ways of counting

Solar capacity is counted in two ways. The international statistics used in this study record the net capacity installed and connected at the end of each year, which for China, the largest market, is the inverter (alternating current) rating. Industry outlooks count the rated output of the panels (direct current), which is higher. Industry counts put 2025 additions at 655 GW and 664 GW. On the Centre's own calculation, the international figure of 511 GW was about 77% of the higher industry count, so industry forecasts are a guide to direction rather than a direct forecast of the variable below.

China: from a rush to a reset

China is the largest solar market by far. It added a record 315 GW in 2025, which on the Centre's own calculation is about 62% of the global 2025 figure of 511 GW. Much of that came early: new pricing rules announced in February 2025 moved new wind and solar projects to market-based prices, with different terms for projects connected before and after 1 June 2025. Developers rushed to connect, and almost 93 GW was installed in May 2025 alone. More than 40 GW was then added in December 2025 alone.

In 2026 the market has reset. China added 72.07 GW in the first half of 2026, about 66% less than the 212.21 GW of the first half of 2025, and 110.83 GW from January to September, down 53.9% on the same months of 2025. There are signs of recovery: additions in the third quarter and in September were both higher than a year earlier, when the market had slowed after the mid-2025 rush. China's national solar industry association has kept its 2026 forecast of 180 to 240 GW, which would be the country's first annual fall since 2019. Reaching even the lower end would need a fourth quarter much stronger than the third. China's total solar capacity reached 1.31 TW at the end of September 2026, and solar has now passed coal as the country's largest source of installed power capacity.

Growth everywhere else

Outside China, solar keeps growing. One major industry outlook expects installations outside China to rise to 313 GW in 2026 from 272 GW in 2025, on its own module-rated count, with growth in India, the Philippines, Nigeria and Malaysia. Another expects installations in Asia-Pacific outside China to rise by 18% in 2026, the Americas by 11%, Europe by about 3% and the Middle East and Africa by 48%.

India added a record 35.2 GW of solar from January to September 2026, taking its total to 171.05 GW. In the United States, solar added 43 GW in 2025 on the module-rated count, and a large pipeline of projects that qualified for tax credits before a July 2026 deadline supports steady additions of about 44 GW a year on the module-rated count. Projects that missed that deadline must be in service by 31 December 2027 to keep the credits, which may bring some building forward into 2027.

Low prices and the shift to storage

Panel prices remain close to record lows, at about $0.11 to $0.12 per watt in late 2026 against $0.09 in 2025. They are only slightly above the 2025 low, which was set before China ended its export tax rebate for solar products from 1 April 2026. Low prices make solar the cheapest new source of power in many markets, but in places where solar already supplies much of the midday power, falling daytime prices, grid congestion and slow permitting now limit growth. Battery storage is expanding fast to shift solar power into the evening and support further growth. Solar generation is expected to rise by around 600 TWh in 2026, matching the record growth of 2025, with similar growth expected in 2027.

The UAE: solar at gigawatt scale

The UAE is building solar at a scale that keeps power available around the clock. In Abu Dhabi, a project that combines a 5.2 GW solar plant with 19 GWh of battery storage to deliver 1 GW of continuous clean power broke ground in October 2025, reached financial close in July 2026 with a total investment of $6.1 billion, and is expected to operate in 2027. In Dubai, the main solar park reached 3,860 MW after adding 1,000 MW in 2025. A further 800 MW is due by the fourth quarter of 2026, and the park is expected to pass 8,000 MW by 2030, against an original plan of 5,000 MW, in support of Dubai's aim of 100% of energy production capacity from clean sources by 2050.

What it means

Solar has grown so fast that a single policy change in China can turn a record year into a falling one. The 2026 reset is a pause in a market that keeps widening, with records in India, fast growth in emerging markets and gigawatt-scale projects pairing solar with storage, including in the UAE. On the Centre's estimates, 2027 is most likely to bring a recovery to between 400 GW and 500 GW, with a combined weight of 62% on bands 2 and 3, and a return to the 2025 record or above has a combined weight of 25%.

Scenarios: global solar capacity added in 2027

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.

The variable is the solar photovoltaic capacity added worldwide in calendar year 2027, in gigawatts, as first reported by the main international renewable energy statistics body in its annual renewable capacity statistics, expected in March or April 2028. If the release states only a total solar figure, that figure is used. Later revisions are ignored. A figure given in megawatts is converted to gigawatts. The figure is rounded half up to a whole gigawatt, once, before it is placed in a band, so 449.5 GW counts as 450 GW and 449.4 GW counts as 449 GW. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly 400 GW falls in band 2, exactly 450 GW in band 3, exactly 500 GW in band 4 and exactly 550 GW in band 5. If no full-year 2027 global figure is published by 30 June 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.

The two industry forecasts for 2027, 618 GW and 689 GW on the module-rated count, would equal about 476 GW and 531 GW at the 2025 ratio of 77%, on the Centre's own calculation. The 2026 data point the same way: China is running well below its 2025 pace, while growth outside China continues, so a 2027 figure somewhat below the 2025 record of 511 GW is the most likely outcome.

What to watch

1. China's monthly data: whether fourth-quarter 2026 connections reach the 180 GW lower edge of the industry forecast, and how 2027 starts.
2. The 2026 global figure: the first international figure for 2026, due in spring 2027, as a new base for 2027.
3. Industry forecasts: updated global outlooks for 2027, including the main annual renewables outlook due on 6 November 2026.
4. The United States: building ahead of the 31 December 2027 deadline for tax credits.
5. India and emerging markets: whether India's record pace continues and growth in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East holds.
6. Prices and storage: panel prices after the end of China's export rebate, and the pace of battery storage alongside solar.
7. The UAE: the start of operation of Abu Dhabi's solar and storage project and new phases of Dubai's solar park.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.