Malaria Worldwide: Estimated Cases in 2027

Key figures (as of October 2026)

The official estimates since 2015

All rows are from the latest edition of the official annual estimate, which recalculates the whole series each year.

Cases have risen in every year since 2018 in the current series. The official estimate records an increase of 22.6% since 2015. Part of the rise reflects population growth: incidence, which allows for the growing population at risk, rose more slowly, from 59.0 to 64.0 cases per 1,000 people at risk over the same period. Deaths have moved differently. The death rate fell from 14.9 to 13.8 per 100,000 people at risk between 2015 and 2024, but population growth kept the total near 600,000.

How the figure is made, and why editions differ

The global figure is a modelled estimate, not a count. For countries with strong surveillance, reported cases are used directly or adjusted for how many people seek care, are tested and are reported. For the highest-burden countries, where surveillance is weaker, cases are estimated from modelled rates of infection in the community. The figure carries a wide range: the 2024 estimate of 282 million has a 95% interval of 256 million to 313 million.

Each edition revises earlier years as data and methods improve, and recent revisions have been upward. The figure for each year as first published has been:

The current edition shows 251 million for 2020 and 273 million for 2023. This study therefore resolves on the 2027 figure as first published, so that later revisions do not matter.

Where the burden is

The African region carried 95% of cases and 95% of deaths in 2024. Five countries, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Ethiopia and Mozambique, accounted for almost half of all cases. Children under five accounted for about three in four malaria deaths in the African region. Much of the 2024 increase came from a few countries: Ethiopia (+2.9 million) and Madagascar (+1.9 million) were the largest. The official estimate links recent increases to humanitarian crises and extreme weather that disrupt health services and the delivery of nets and medicines.

Progress elsewhere is steady. In 2024, 37 countries reported fewer than 1,000 cases. Cabo Verde and Egypt were certified malaria-free in 2024, and Georgia, Suriname and Timor-Leste in 2025.

Forces pulling down: new tools

• Vaccines. Malaria vaccines are now part of routine immunization in 25 African countries that carry more than 70% of the global burden, and more than 74 million doses have been delivered. In the first pilot areas, introduction brought a 13% fall in child deaths from all causes, excluding injury, and a 22% fall in hospital admissions for severe malaria. A price cut of about 40% for one of the two vaccines, agreed in October 2026, is expected to take effect by early 2027.
• Nets and chemoprevention. Use of nets with two active ingredients, which work better against mosquitoes resistant to the standard insecticide, has expanded. Seasonal chemoprevention reached 54 million children in 2024, in 20 countries.
• Diagnosis and treatment. In April 2026, the first antimalarial treatment made for newborns and young infants was approved for international procurement, together with three new rapid tests that detect parasites missed by the most common tests.
• Impact. The official estimate credits these tools with preventing more than 170 million cases and one million deaths in 2024 alone.

Forces pulling up: funding, resistance and climate

• Funding. Total malaria funding was about US$3.9 billion in 2024, down from US$4.0 billion in 2023, and the gap to the need has widened from US$2.6 billion in 2019 to US$5.3 billion in 2024. Global development assistance for health then fell by 21% from 2024 to 2025, disrupting net campaigns, surveys and surveillance in several countries. The largest multilateral health fund raised US$11.34 billion in pledges at its November 2025 summit, against a target of US$18 billion for its next three-year cycle. Funding limits continue to constrain how fast many countries can scale up vaccination. Nets distributed in sub-Saharan Africa fell by 33% in 2024 compared with 2023.
• Drug resistance. Partial resistance to artemisinin, the core of first-line treatment, is confirmed in four countries in eastern Africa and suspected in four more. Parasites that escape the most common rapid tests are widespread in parts of the Horn of Africa.
• Climate. A very strong El Niño has developed through 2026, with forecasters giving a better than 83% chance that strong to very strong conditions last through January to March 2027. The official estimate links El Niño conditions to recent increases in parts of the Americas, and extreme weather to increases in parts of Africa.

Surveillance cuts both ways. As surveillance strengthens in high-burden countries, more cases are expected to be reported, which can raise the estimate. In the Centre's judgement, paused surveys and reporting leave the estimate with less recent data, which adds uncertainty in both directions.

Scenarios: official global estimated malaria cases in 2027

Resolution rule: the point estimate of the global number of malaria cases for calendar year 2027, as first published in the official annual global malaria estimate, expected in late 2028. The first edition that contains a global 2027 point estimate decides. Later editions and revisions do not count, even if the method or the series is revised. If the estimate is published in thousands or in another unit, it is converted to millions and rounded half-up to the nearest whole million before banding: 294.5 million counts as 295 million. Bands are whole millions and a value on an edge belongs to the band whose range includes it: 279 million is in band 1, 280 million is in band 2, 295 million is in band 3, 310 million is in band 4 and 325 million is in band 5. If no official global point estimate for 2027 has been published by 30 June 2029, the forecast is withdrawn. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.

What to watch

1. The next edition of the official annual estimate, expected in December 2026: the first estimate for 2025, and whether earlier years are revised up again.
2. El Niño through early 2027: rainfall and malaria outbreaks in eastern and southern Africa and in the Americas during and after the event.
3. Funding for 2027: final pledges to the main multilateral fund, new grant allocations, and whether net replacement and chemoprevention campaigns go ahead as planned.
4. Vaccine rollout: new country introductions, the lower vaccine price taking effect, and how many children complete all doses.
5. Drug resistance: whether partial resistance is confirmed in more countries, and the move to multiple first-line treatments.
6. Certifications: further countries certified malaria-free.

Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.