Through the Strait: Oil Flows via Hormuz in 2027

Key figures (as of October 2026)

What passes through the strait

The strait links the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and it is deep and wide enough for the largest crude tankers. In the first half of 2025, oil flows through it averaged 20.9 million barrels a day, about a fifth of world consumption of petroleum liquids and about a quarter of all oil traded by sea, according to official US energy statistics. Of that, 14.7 million barrels a day was crude oil and condensate and 6.1 million barrels a day was petroleum products.

Most of this oil goes east. The US agency estimates that 89% of the crude oil and condensate that passed through the strait in the first half of 2025 went to Asian markets, and that China, India, Japan and South Korea together took 74% of all crude and condensate flows through it.

The long-run series moves within a narrow range in normal years. On the US agency's count, flows rose from 19.2 million barrels a day in 2020 to 21.9 in 2022, then eased to 20.7 in 2024 as producers lowered output under a group agreement, more Gulf refining capacity kept crude in the region, and more crude was sent by pipeline to ports outside the strait. In the four quarters of 2025, flows rose steadily from 20.9 to 21.6 million barrels a day.

The latest data

Flows in 2026 have been much lower than in 2025 because of temporary regional shipping disruptions. On the US agency's count, flows averaged 14.9 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2026 and 4.9 million in the second, against about 21.2 million for 2025 as a whole on the Centre's own calculation. The US agency says its 2026 tanker-tracking estimates for the strait are being revised often.

The recovery since mid-year has been strong. The intergovernmental energy organisation estimates that Gulf crude exports rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million in September 2026, more than 75% of their early-2026 level, and that oil flows through the strait rose by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million. Exports by routes outside the strait rose by 0.97 million barrels a day to 5.6 million. On the Centre's own calculation, the September flow through the strait was about 55% of that organisation's own 2025 average of 19.87 million barrels a day.

Looking ahead, the US agency's October 2026 outlook expects most of the region's oil output to return to its early-2026 average by the end of the second quarter of 2027. The intergovernmental organisation expects world oil supply to rise by 7.7 million barrels a day in 2027, while world oil demand in 2027 stays about 0.6% below its 2025 level.

The Centre's study "Oil in 2027: From Shock to Surplus?" carries a separate forecast on the average oil price in 2027. This study looks at volumes through the strait.

Two ways of counting

The two main official counts of oil through the strait differ. Both rest on tanker-tracking data, but they use different data providers and methods. For 2025, the US agency's quarterly figures give about 21.2 million barrels a day on the Centre's own calculation, while the intergovernmental organisation puts the year at 19.87 million barrels a day. The gap of about 1.3 million barrels a day is close to the width of one band below, so the forecast uses one publisher, and the fallback publisher is used only if the first publishes nothing.

First figures are also revised. The US agency first put 2024 flows at about 20 million barrels a day, in June 2025, and later revised the figure to 20.7 million in March 2026. The forecast uses the figure as first published.

The UAE and the Gulf: export routes that widen choice

The UAE has built export infrastructure that gives its crude a route to market from Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. Refinery upgrades have allowed more heavy crude to be refined at home and more crude to be exported through the pipeline to Fujairah, and the US agency estimates that UAE crude and condensate passing through the strait in 2024 was 0.4 million barrels a day lower than in 2022 as a result. In its estimates, UAE crude output in August and September 2026 was back at its February 2026 level of about 3.6 million barrels a day.

A new West-East pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah is planned to operate in 2027. Official UAE announcements say it is set to double export capacity via Fujairah, and the US agency describes it as a further line of about 1.5 million barrels a day. In Saudi Arabia, the East-West pipeline carries crude to export terminals on the Red Sea.

More export choice tends to lower the share of Gulf oil that passes through the strait in any given year, even when total Gulf exports grow.

What it means

The central case is a year of recovery in which flows through the strait return close to their usual range by mid-2027 but average somewhat less than in 2025, as new export infrastructure gives Gulf producers more routes to market. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight of bands 3 and 4, from 17.0 to under 21.0 million barrels a day, is 58%. For the UAE, a second line to Fujairah widens export choice.

How this forecast resolves

These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.

The variable is the average daily flow of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz in calendar year 2027, in million barrels a day, as first published by the US agency that publishes official US energy statistics in its world oil chokepoints analysis or an equivalent table, such as its quarterly global energy data supplement. Liquefied natural gas is excluded. If the US agency publishes a full-year 2027 figure, that figure is used. If it publishes only quarterly figures, the simple mean of the four quarterly figures for 2027 in the first release that contains all four is used, on the Centre's own calculation; if a full-year figure and all four quarters first appear in the same release, the full-year figure is used. Later revisions are ignored. The figure is rounded half up to one decimal place, once, before it is placed in a band, so 16.95 counts as 17.0 and 16.94 counts as 16.9. A figure stated as "about", "around", "nearly", "almost", "more than" or "over" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly 14.0 falls in band 2, exactly 17.0 in band 3, exactly 19.0 in band 4 and exactly 21.0 in band 5. If the US agency publishes no full-year or four-quarter 2027 figure by 30 September 2028, the first full-year 2027 figure for oil through the strait published by the intergovernmental energy organisation is used instead, under the same rules. If neither is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.

Two figures frame the bands. On the US agency's count, the 2025 level was about 21.2 million barrels a day, on the Centre's own calculation from its quarterly figures. On the intergovernmental organisation's count, the September 2026 flow was about 55% of its own 2025 figure. The new UAE line can lower flows through the strait once it operates, because crude sent by pipeline to Fujairah does not pass through the strait.

What to watch

1. Monthly flow estimates: whether flows through the strait keep rising in late 2026 from 10.9 million barrels a day in September.
2. Quarterly figures: the US agency's next quarterly table for the strait, with the first figure for the third quarter of 2026.
3. Gulf output: whether regional oil output returns to its early-2026 average by mid-2027, as the US agency's outlook expects.
4. The new UAE pipeline: the start of operation of the West-East line to Fujairah in 2027.
5. Routes outside the strait: how much crude moves by pipeline to the Red Sea and to Fujairah as flows through the strait recover.
6. Demand in Asia: crude imports by China, India, Japan and South Korea, the main buyers of oil from the strait.

Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.