Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Round | 8 of 26 (Round 7 postponed, new date to be confirmed) |
| Dates | Saturday 7 November and Sunday 8 November 2026 |
| First kick-off | 16:55 UAE time, Saturday 7 November, Al Dhafra v Kalba |
| Matches | 7 |
| Rounds played so far | 6 (latest match 18 October 2026) |
| Goals so far this season | 142 in 42 matches, 3.38 a match (Centre calculation) |
| Home and away goals this season | home sides 1.67 a match, away sides 1.71 (Centre calculation) |
| Home and away goals in 2025-26 | home sides 1.46 a match, away sides 1.36 (Centre calculation) |
Fixtures (UAE time)
| Date | Kick-off | Home | Away | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | 16:55 | Al Dhafra | Kalba | Hamdan bin Zayed Stadium |
| Sat 7 Nov | 19:30 | Hatta | Khorfakkan | Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium |
| Sat 7 Nov | 19:30 | Sharjah | Shabab Al Ahli | Sharjah Stadium |
| Sun 8 Nov | 16:55 | Al Nasr | United | Al Maktoum Stadium |
| Sun 8 Nov | 16:55 | Al Jazira | Al Wasl | Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium |
| Sun 8 Nov | 19:30 | Ajman | Bani Yas | Rashid bin Saeed Stadium |
| Sun 8 Nov | 19:30 | Al Wahda | Al Ain | Al Nahyan Stadium |
How the Centre models each match
Centre method, statistics only. Each match is treated as two independent Poisson goal counts, one for each side. The steps are:
- Team rates. For each club, goals scored and goals conceded per match are blended at 40% this season (six matches) and 60% last season (26 matches). The same 40/60 blend is used in the Centre's title-race study. Hatta and United were not in the top flight last season. For them, the last-season part uses the 2025-26 average of the two clubs that left the league, which is 0.94 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per match.
- League baselines. The same 40/60 blend gives 1.54 goals a match for home sides and 1.50 for away sides, or 1.52 per side.
- Expected goals. The home side's expected goals are its scoring rate divided by 1.52, times the visitor's conceding rate divided by 1.52, times the home baseline of 1.54. The away side's figure is built the same way with the away baseline of 1.50.
- Bands. The two Poisson distributions give the chance of every scoreline up to 14 goals a side. These are summed into the five bands and rounded to whole percentages. Where rounding leaves the total off 100, the bands with the largest remainders are adjusted.
The model uses only league results. It does not adjust for squad news, fixture load or motivation, so the bands are a statistical baseline rather than a prediction of any one scoreline.
Resolution rule (all seven matches): each match resolves on its 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding any extra time or penalties, as recorded by the league. If a match is not played within 7 days of its scheduled date, the forecast for that match is withdrawn. For each match the five bands are mutually exclusive and cover every outcome. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
Form reads oldest to latest, from this season's last five league matches (W win, D draw, L loss). Home and away records are wins-draws-losses, with goals for and against.
Al Dhafra v Kalba
Saturday 7 November, 16:55 UAE time, Hamdan bin Zayed Stadium
| Al Dhafra | Kalba | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 11th |
| Points (played) | 6 (6) | 5 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 8 / 10 | 8 / 15 |
| Home record | 1-0-2, 6-5 | 0-1-2, 2-7 |
| Away record | 1-0-2, 2-5 | 1-1-1, 6-8 |
| Form, last five | L L L W W | L L L W D |
| 2025-26 meetings | Al Dhafra 3-0 Kalba (home); Kalba 1-1 Al Dhafra (away) |
Reasoning. Two clubs one point apart in the lower half meet with improving form: Al Dhafra won their last two, including a 5-1 home win over United, and Kalba are unbeaten in two, with a 2-2 draw against the leaders. Their blended rates are close, at about 1.2 goals scored a match for both, with Al Dhafra conceding 1.87 and Kalba 2.04. The model gives Al Dhafra 1.60 expected goals and Kalba 1.45. That points to an open match with only a slight home edge: 41% home win, 24% draw, 35% away win.
Hatta v Khorfakkan
Saturday 7 November, 19:30 UAE time, Hamdan bin Rashid Stadium
| Hatta | Khorfakkan | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 12th |
| Points (played) | 3 (6) | 4 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 5 / 13 | 7 / 15 |
| Home record | 0-0-3, 1-7 | 1-1-2, 5-8 |
| Away record | 1-0-2, 4-6 | 0-0-2, 2-7 |
| Form, last five | L L W L L | L W L D L |
| 2025-26 meetings | none (Hatta were not in the top flight) |
Reasoning. One point separates the two clubs. Hatta's one win this season came away from home, 1-0 at Bani Yas, and they are still looking for a home point. Khorfakkan have the stronger scoring rate on the blend, 1.27 goals a match against Hatta's 0.90, while both concede about two a match. The model gives Hatta 1.22 expected goals and Khorfakkan 1.59, so the visitors carry the larger share: 29% home win, 25% draw, 46% away win. Hatta's figures lean partly on the stand-in rates used for last season, so they carry more uncertainty than the others.
Sharjah v Shabab Al Ahli
Saturday 7 November, 19:30 UAE time, Sharjah Stadium
| Sharjah | Shabab Al Ahli | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 2nd |
| Points (played) | 12 (6) | 13 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 13 / 8 | 12 / 5 |
| Home record | 1-0-1, 4-5 | 2-0-1, 5-3 |
| Away record | 3-0-1, 9-3 | 2-1-0, 7-2 |
| Form, last five | L W W L W | W W L D W |
| 2024-25 meetings | Shabab Al Ahli 2-1 Sharjah; Sharjah 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli | |
| 2025-26 meetings | Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 Sharjah; Sharjah 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli |
Reasoning. Sharjah have made a strong start, with 12 points and three away wins, but the blend weighs in Shabab Al Ahli's 2025-26 season, when they scored 60 goals and conceded 18 in 26 matches. That gives the visitors 2.18 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded per match. Sharjah have not beaten Shabab Al Ahli in the last four league meetings, with three losses and a draw. The model gives Sharjah 0.84 expected goals and Shabab Al Ahli 2.29: 12% home win, 18% draw, 70% away win. Sharjah's stronger form this season is the main reason the true picture may be closer than the model suggests.
Al Nasr v United
Sunday 8 November, 16:55 UAE time, Al Maktoum Stadium
| Al Nasr | United | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Points (played) | 8 (6) | 7 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 8 / 7 | 13 / 18 |
| Home record | 2-1-1, 6-4 | 1-1-0, 5-2 |
| Away record | 0-1-1, 2-3 | 1-0-3, 8-16 |
| Form, last five | W L L D W | W W L D L |
| 2025-26 meetings | none (United were not in the top flight) |
Reasoning. United's matches have produced 31 goals in six games, more than five a match, and they have scored in every away match. Al Nasr have the steadier profile: 1.36 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match on the blend, and two wins from four at home. United's blended conceding rate is 2.26 goals a match. The model gives Al Nasr 2.06 expected goals and United 1.16: 58% home win, 21% draw, 21% away win.
Al Jazira v Al Wasl
Sunday 8 November, 16:55 UAE time, Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium
| Al Jazira | Al Wasl | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Points (played) | 14 (6) | 13 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 13 / 4 | 17 / 6 |
| Home record | 1-1-0, 4-1 | 2-0-1, 10-4 |
| Away record | 3-1-0, 9-3 | 2-1-0, 7-2 |
| Form, last five | W W W D D | W L W D W |
| 2024-25 meetings | Al Wasl 2-2 Al Jazira; Al Jazira 0-5 Al Wasl | |
| 2025-26 meetings | Al Wasl 1-0 Al Jazira; Al Jazira 1-2 Al Wasl |
Reasoning. The leaders host Al Wasl, whose goal difference stands at +11. Al Jazira are unbeaten and have conceded only four goals in six matches. Al Wasl have scored 17 goals and have won the last two league meetings between the clubs. On the blend the two sides are very close: Al Jazira score 1.93 and concede 0.96 a match, Al Wasl score 2.03 and concede 1.07. The model gives Al Jazira 1.37 expected goals and Al Wasl 1.26, which makes this the closest of the three top-six meetings on the model: 39% home win, 26% draw, 35% away win.
Ajman v Bani Yas
Sunday 8 November, 19:30 UAE time, Rashid bin Saeed Stadium
| Ajman | Bani Yas | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 14th |
| Points (played) | 9 (6) | 1 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 12 / 15 | 5 / 12 |
| Home record | 1-0-2, 7-9 | 0-0-4, 4-10 |
| Away record | 2-0-1, 5-6 | 0-1-1, 1-2 |
| Form, last five | W L W L L | L L L D L |
| 2024-25 meetings | Bani Yas 3-1 Ajman; Ajman 2-3 Bani Yas | |
| 2025-26 meetings | Bani Yas 0-1 Ajman; Ajman 1-1 Bani Yas |
Reasoning. Ajman have scored freely this season, 12 goals in six matches, and opened with an away win at Al Wahda. Bani Yas are still looking for a win this season, but their one point came away from home and their two away matches have been tight, with two goals conceded. Recent meetings have swung both ways: Bani Yas won both games in 2024-25, and Ajman took four points from the two in 2025-26. The model gives Ajman 1.70 expected goals and Bani Yas 1.16: 50% home win, 24% draw, 26% away win.
Al Wahda v Al Ain
Sunday 8 November, 19:30 UAE time, Al Nahyan Stadium
| Al Wahda | Al Ain | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Points (played) | 12 (6) | 13 (6) |
| Goals for / against | 9 / 7 | 12 / 7 |
| Home record | 2-0-1, 5-4 | 2-1-0, 6-3 |
| Away record | 2-0-1, 4-3 | 2-0-1, 6-4 |
| Form, last five | L W W W W | W W W D L |
| 2024-25 meetings | Al Ain 1-2 Al Wahda; Al Wahda 2-1 Al Ain | |
| 2025-26 meetings | Al Ain 2-2 Al Wahda; Al Wahda 0-1 Al Ain |
Reasoning. Al Wahda come in with four straight league wins. Al Ain, the 2025-26 champions, scored 62 and conceded 18 last season, and the blend gives them 2.23 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per match. Al Wahda's blend is 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded. The last four meetings are evenly split, with two Al Wahda wins, one Al Ain win and one draw. The model gives Al Wahda 0.87 expected goals and Al Ain 1.54: 21% home win, 26% draw, 53% away win. Al Wahda's current run and their record in this fixture suggest a closer match than the season-blend alone.
What to watch
- The top-six meetings: with six clubs within two points, the results of Sharjah v Shabab Al Ahli, Al Jazira v Al Wasl and Al Wahda v Al Ain shape the table going into Round 9.
- Goals per match: this season's 3.38 a match is above last season's 2.82, and away sides have scored slightly more than home sides so far.
- Model check: once the round is played, each match's bands are scored with the Brier score and the ranked probability score.
- Round 7: the postponed round is yet to be given a new date.
Figures as of 30 October 2026, after six rounds. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research. Statistical analysis only.