Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Non-oil foreign trade, 2025 | about AED 3.8 trillion (US$1.03 trillion), up 27% on 2024 |
| Non-oil foreign trade, fourth quarter of 2025 | AED 1.1 trillion, up 33.1% on the fourth quarter of 2024 |
| Parts of non-oil trade, 2025 | exports AED 813.8 billion, up 45.5% on 2024; re-exports AED 830.2 billion, up 15.7%; imports more than AED 2.1 trillion, up 25.7% |
| Exports' share of non-oil trade | 21.6% in 2025, from 18.8% in 2024; 23.4% in the first half of 2026, from 21.3% a year earlier |
| Non-oil foreign trade, first half of 2026 | AED 1.937 trillion, up 13.1% on the first half of 2025 (AED 1.728 trillion) |
| Non-oil exports, first half of 2026 | AED 452.8 billion, up 23.9% on the first half of 2025 |
| Trade agreements | 38 signed from September 2021 to August 2026, 18 in force by July 2026; Canada signed on 27 October 2026 |
| National goal for 2031 | AED 4 trillion of non-oil foreign trade |
A trillion-dollar trading nation
In 2025 the UAE's non-oil foreign trade reached about AED 3.8 trillion, or US$1.03 trillion, 27% more than in 2024 and almost double the 2021 level. The fourth quarter alone brought AED 1.1 trillion, up 33.1% on the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter in the country's history above AED 1 trillion. All three parts grew: non-oil exports rose 45.5% to AED 813.8 billion, re-exports rose 15.7% to AED 830.2 billion, and imports rose 25.7% to more than AED 2.1 trillion, reflecting the UAE's role as a global trade hub.
A growing share made in the UAE
Exports made up 21.6% of non-oil trade in 2025, up from 18.8% in 2024, and 23.4% in the first half of 2026, up from 21.3% a year earlier. Gold and jewellery, aluminium, plastics, copper wire and perfumes are among the main products, so the value of trade moves partly with the value of gold traded.
Steady growth in 2026
Non-oil foreign trade reached AED 1.937 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 13.1% on the AED 1.728 trillion of the first half of 2025, and exports rose 23.9% to AED 452.8 billion. Growth has moderated from the pace of 2025 but remains well above the long-run trend. The main monthly survey of the UAE's non-oil private sector stood at 55.3 in August and September 2026, with new export orders rising.
A widening network of partners
Since September 2021 the UAE has signed 38 trade agreements, 18 of them in force by July 2026. On 27 October 2026 the UAE and Canada signed an agreement, and talks continue with around 20 more countries. Agreements that enter into force during 2026 and 2027 open further markets for UAE goods and services.
The Centre's other UAE trade forecasts cover calendar year 2026; this study looks one year further ahead, to 2027.
What it means
The UAE's non-oil trade has grown quickly, with exports taking a rising share. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on AED 4.4 trillion or more in 2027 is 64%, above the 2031 goal of AED 4 trillion.
Scenarios: the UAE's non-oil foreign trade in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the value of the UAE's total non-oil foreign trade (non-oil exports, re-exports and imports together) for calendar year 2027, in AED trillion, as first announced by the federal government in its official full-year 2027 non-oil foreign trade results, expected in early 2028. Only the first official full-year 2027 figure counts; later revisions are ignored. The most precise official AED figure is used, so a figure given in AED billion is converted to AED trillion; if the AED figure is only rounded, the official US-dollar figure converted at AED 3.6725 is used, but only if it is published more precisely than the AED figure. The figure is rounded half up to two decimal places of a trillion, once, before it is placed in a band, so AED 4.395 trillion counts as AED 4.40 trillion. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. If the official measure is rebased or its coverage reclassified before the 2027 figure appears, the figure published for 2027 on the official basis in use at that time is used. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly AED 4.2 trillion falls in band 2, exactly AED 4.4 trillion in band 3, exactly AED 4.6 trillion in band 4 and exactly AED 4.8 trillion in band 5. If no official full-year 2027 figure is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
On the Centre's own calculation, the 2025 level of about AED 3.8 trillion, grown in 2026 at the first-half pace of 13.1%, comes to about AED 4.3 trillion, and growth of 3% to 7% in 2027 on top of that gives about AED 4.43 trillion to AED 4.60 trillion.
Gentle year: under AED 4.2 trillion
On the Centre's own calculation, this means 2027 trade less than about 11% above the 2025 level of about AED 3.8 trillion, over two years. Growth in the first half of 2026 was already 13.1% in a single year, so the weight is low, but it allows for a softer second half of 2026 if the value of gold traded eases.
Moderate growth: AED 4.2 trillion to under AED 4.4 trillion
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers two-year growth of about 11% to 16% on the 2025 level. It fits a 2026 close to the first-half pace followed by a flat or modest 2027, and gets a solid weight.
Steady growth: AED 4.4 trillion to under AED 4.6 trillion
This is the most likely band. On the Centre's own calculation, the latest full-year actual, about AED 3.8 trillion in 2025, grown at the first-half 2026 pace of 13.1% and then by 3% to 7% in 2027, lands in this band. It gets the highest weight.
Strong growth: AED 4.6 trillion to under AED 4.8 trillion
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs two-year growth of about 21% to 26% on the 2025 level. More agreements in force and rising export orders would support it, so the weight is solid.
Very strong growth: AED 4.8 trillion or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs two-year growth of about 26% or more, close to the single-year pace of 2025. That is a large step, so the weight is lower.
What to watch
- Nine-month and full-year 2026 results: the official trade releases, which set the base for 2027.
- Gold: the value of gold traded, a large part of non-oil trade.
- Export orders: whether the monthly business survey keeps showing rising new export business.
- New agreements: the entry into force of signed agreements, including Canada.
- Export share: whether exports keep rising as a share of non-oil trade.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.