Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Non-oil exports including re-exports, 2025 | SAR 366.08 billion, up 18.9% on 2024 |
| Re-exports, 2025 | up 64.4% on 2024; machinery and electrical equipment 50.1% of re-exports, up 99.8% |
| Merchandise imports, 2025 | SAR 949.82 billion, up 8.8% on 2024 |
| Ratio of non-oil exports to imports | 38.5% in 2025, from 35.3% in 2024 |
| Oil's share of total merchandise exports | 68.7% in 2025, from 73.1% in 2024 |
| Leading non-oil goods, 2025 | chemical products 22.5% of non-oil exports, up 4.7%; machinery and electrical equipment 22.4%, up 91.8% |
A broader export base
Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports, including re-exports, reached SAR 366.08 billion in 2025, 18.9% more than in 2024. On the Centre's own calculation, that implies a 2024 level of about SAR 307.9 billion. National non-oil exports, which exclude re-exports, were broadly level with 2024, at 0.1% lower, so the 2025 growth came from re-exports. Re-exports were the fastest-growing part, up 64.4%, and machinery and electrical equipment made up 50.1% of re-exports after almost doubling, up 99.8%. Re-exports can vary widely from one year to the next, so they add range to the outlook in both directions.
As a result, the ratio of non-oil exports to imports rose to 38.5% in 2025, from 35.3% in 2024, while imports grew 8.8% to SAR 949.82 billion. Oil's share of total merchandise exports fell to 68.7%, from 73.1%, a sign of the economy's steady diversification.
What the Kingdom sells
Chemical products made up 22.5% of non-oil exports in 2025, up 4.7%, and machinery and electrical equipment made up 22.4%, up 91.8%. China, the UAE and India were the largest buyers of Saudi goods in 2025, taking 14.6%, 10.0% and 9.4% of total exports.
What it means
Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports have reached a higher base, and the ratio of non-oil exports to imports has risen. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on SAR 345 billion or more in 2027 is 55%, and on SAR 310 billion or more is 84%, which would keep non-oil exports at or above about the 2024 level.
Scenarios: Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports in 2027
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the value of Saudi Arabia's non-oil merchandise exports including re-exports for calendar year 2027, in SAR billion, as first published by the Kingdom's national statistics authority in its first official release giving the full-year 2027 figure, expected in 2028. Only that first official full-year figure counts; later revisions are ignored. If the authority publishes only monthly figures for 2027, the Centre adds the twelve months as first published, on the Centre's own calculation. The figure is rounded half up to a whole SAR billion, once, before it is placed in a band, so SAR 379.5 billion counts as SAR 380 billion. A figure stated as "more than", "over", "about", "around", "nearly" or "almost" a number counts as that number. A figure reported as a range counts at its midpoint. If the measure is rebased or goods are reclassified between oil and non-oil before the 2027 figure appears, the figure published for 2027 on the official basis in use at that time is used. The bands cover every possible value, and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly SAR 310 billion falls in band 2, exactly SAR 345 billion in band 3, exactly SAR 380 billion in band 4 and exactly SAR 415 billion in band 5. If no official full-year 2027 figure is published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn.
Moderation to the 2024 level: under SAR 310 billion
On the Centre's own calculation, this means a 2027 level more than about 15% below 2025, close to the 2024 level of about SAR 307.9 billion. It would follow if re-exports normalised after their fast 2025 growth while national exports grew modestly. Because 2025's growth came from re-exports, which move widely, the band keeps real weight.
Moderate level: SAR 310 billion to under SAR 345 billion
On the Centre's own calculation, this covers about 15% to 6% below the 2025 level. It fits steady national exports with re-exports settling between their 2024 and 2025 levels after a strong year, and gets a high weight, close to band 3.
Steady level: SAR 345 billion to under SAR 380 billion
This is the most likely band, by a small margin. It contains the latest full-year actual, SAR 366.08 billion in 2025, and covers about 6% below to 4% above it on the Centre's own calculation. Steady growth in goods made in the Kingdom, with re-exports holding near their 2025 level, lands here. It gets the highest weight, only just above band 2, because the 2025 level rests on re-exports, a high base.
Strong growth: SAR 380 billion to under SAR 415 billion
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of about 4% to 13% on 2025 over two years. Continued gains in chemicals and machinery, with re-exports holding up, would support it, so the weight is moderate.
Very strong growth: SAR 415 billion or more
On the Centre's own calculation, this needs growth of more than about 13% on 2025 over two years, a second strong surge in re-exports on top of broad gains in national exports. That is a large step, so the weight is lower.
What to watch
- Monthly trade releases: national non-oil exports and re-exports each month through 2026 and 2027.
- Re-exports: whether machinery and electrical re-exports hold near their 2025 level.
- Chemicals and machinery: the two largest groups of non-oil exports in 2025.
- Leading partners: demand from the UAE, China and India.
- Non-oil export to import ratio: whether it keeps rising.
Figures as of late October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.