Key figures (as of October 2026)
| Official global reported measles cases, 2025 | 411,913 |
| Official global reported measles cases, 2024 | 476,412 |
| Official global reported measles cases, 2023 | 669,083 |
| First-dose measles vaccine coverage, 2025 | 84% (unchanged from 2024; 86% in 2019) |
| Second-dose measles vaccine coverage, 2025 | 77% |
| Countries with large or disruptive outbreaks | 59 in 2024; 57 in 2025 |
| Modelled measles infections and deaths, 2024 | About 11 million infections and 95,000 deaths |
Nine years of reported measles cases
| Year | Official global reported cases |
|---|---|
| 2017 | 173,457 |
| 2018 | 359,295 |
| 2019 | 874,099 |
| 2020 | 159,240 |
| 2021 | 123,152 |
| 2022 | 206,775 |
| 2023 | 669,083 |
| 2024 | 476,412 |
| 2025 | 411,913 |
The series moves in waves. Cases more than doubled from 2018 to 2019, fell by more than four-fifths in 2020, the first pandemic year, then more than tripled from 2022 to 2023. Since the 2023 peak, the official total has fallen in each of two years, but it remains about twice the 2022 level.
These are cases reported by countries in their annual official returns, the figure this study forecasts. Reported cases are a small share of all infections: many people never seek care, and some cases are never notified. The modelled estimate of about 11 million infections in 2024 is far larger than the 476,412 cases reported that year.
The 2026 picture so far
Provisional monthly data, which arrive with a lag of one to two months, show 2026 running above 2025, with outbreaks in several regions. Counts for the latest months are still incomplete. In the Americas, regional surveillance had confirmed 56,753 cases in 17 countries and territories by mid-October 2026, a 4.8-fold increase on the same period of 2025. Recent two-week counts there are falling, and estimated reproduction numbers in some countries are below 1. The region lost its collective verification as free of endemic measles in November 2025, after transmission in Canada continued for more than 12 months.
Official totals run above provisional ones. Annual official returns are compiled after the year ends, and in recent years their totals have been higher than the provisional monthly totals for the same year. The official 2026 total is due in July 2027.
Vaccination and the immunity gap
Measles spreads wherever enough children miss vaccination, so coverage is the strongest guide to the years ahead. Global first-dose coverage was 84% in 2025, unchanged from 2024 and below the 86% reached in 2019. Second-dose coverage was 77%. Nearly 21 million children missed their routine first dose in 2025, against 19 million in 2019. At least 95% coverage with two doses is needed to stop transmission.
Large outbreaks build on these gaps. Fifty-nine countries had large or disruptive outbreaks in 2024 and 57 in 2025. The burden has shifted towards middle-income countries, where case-fatality rates are lower. Reduced funding for immunization and surveillance has also been identified as a risk that could widen immunity gaps and increase outbreaks.
Two forces pull in opposite directions for 2027. In the Centre's judgement, large outbreaks in 2026 leave fewer susceptible people in the worst-affected areas and often prompt catch-up vaccination campaigns, which would tend to lower case counts in the following year. Flat coverage and new children born into existing gaps add to the pool of people who can be infected, while weaker surveillance would lower reported counts without lowering infections.
Scenarios: official global reported measles cases in 2027
Resolution rule: the official global total of reported measles cases for calendar year 2027, compiled from countries' annual official returns and released in the annual global update due in July 2028. The figure shown on 1 September 2028 decides. If no global 2027 total is shown on that date, the first global 2027 total published after it decides. Later revisions do not count. If the figure is published with decimals or in rounded form, it is rounded half-up to the nearest whole case before banding. Bands are whole numbers and a value on an edge belongs to the band whose range includes it: 249,999 is in band 1, 250,000 is in band 2, 450,000 is in band 3, 650,000 is in band 4 and 850,000 is in band 5. If no official global 2027 total has been published by 31 December 2028, the forecast is withdrawn. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score, as the bands are ordered.
Fewer than 250,000 cases
Four of the past nine years fell here, but three of them were the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022. Reaching this band would need a sharp post-outbreak fall in the countries driving the 2026 surge, together with strong catch-up campaigns. A drop in reporting from weaker surveillance could also push the figure down. The weight is a judgement that this is possible but less likely than in the pandemic years.
250,000 to 449,999 cases
This band covers the case where outbreaks ease. It includes 2025 (411,913) and 2018 (359,295), and it fits a pattern in which the 2026 outbreaks are followed by a quieter year as the pool of susceptible people in hard-hit areas shrinks. Past peaks (2019 and 2023) were followed by lower years, which keeps this band close to the central one in the Centre's judgement.
450,000 to 649,999 cases
This band holds the central estimate, at a level similar to 2024 (476,412). The year 2025 closed at 411,913, 2026 is running above 2025, and official totals tend to exceed provisional ones, while flat coverage keeps transmission high. It covers a year in which outbreaks ease in some regions but persist or start in others. The weight is the Centre's judgement.
650,000 to 849,999 cases
This band matches a year like 2023 (669,083). It would need widespread new outbreaks across several regions, or continued high transmission in the regions most affected in 2026. The weight reflects one such year in the past four and the risk that funding pressures weaken outbreak response.
850,000 cases or more
This band has been reached once in the past nine years, in 2019 (874,099). It would need a global resurgence on the scale of that year, with large outbreaks on several continents at once. The persistent immunity gap keeps this tail real. Post-outbreak immunity in the hardest-hit countries argues against a larger weight.
What to watch
- The official 2026 total, due in July 2027: whether it exceeds 2025's 411,913 and how far it runs above the provisional monthly data.
- The late-2026 and early-2027 season: whether monthly provisional counts stay low through the winter months or start rising again by March and April 2027.
- Regions with active outbreaks: whether the outbreaks that persisted through 2026 end.
- The Americas: whether falling transmission continues and countries interrupt the outbreaks that persisted through 2026.
- Coverage data due in July 2027: whether first-dose coverage moves above 84% and fewer children miss their first dose.
- Catch-up campaigns and surveillance funding: the scale of vaccination campaigns after the 2026 outbreaks, and whether surveillance capacity holds.
Figures as of October 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.