Key figures (after round 19, the Mexico City Grand Prix, 1 November 2026)
| 2026 rounds completed / scheduled | 19 / 23 (São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi remain); Antonelli has clinched the 2026 title |
| Drivers' standings, top six | Antonelli 380, Verstappen 261, Hamilton 259, Russell 250, Leclerc 245, Norris 221 |
| Grand Prix wins in 2026 | Antonelli 9, Verstappen 3, Russell 3, Norris 2, Hamilton 1, Leclerc 1 |
| Points over the last seven rounds (Italy to Mexico City) | Verstappen 149, Antonelli 138, Leclerc 90, Hamilton 76, Russell 67, Norris 62 |
| Constructors' points | Mercedes 630, Ferrari 504, Red Bull Racing 382, McLaren 365 |
| 2027 calendar | 24 rounds, 10 Sprint weekends; Bahrain 12–14 March to Abu Dhabi 10–12 December |
| Defending champion retained the title, 2001–2025 | 15 of 25 seasons; the drivers' title stayed with the same team in 17 of 25 |
The 2026 season so far
The first season under the new technical rules has belonged to Mercedes. Antonelli won 9 of the 19 Grands Prix and sealed the title with third place in Mexico City, and Russell won three more: Australia, Austria and Azerbaijan. Their combined 630 points put Mercedes 126 ahead of Ferrari. Antonelli has been the more consistent of the two, with only one non-scoring round all season against Russell's three.
The picture is less one-sided over the second half. Verstappen won the Bahrain Grand Prix, held this year at Sepang in Malaysia, the Singapore Grand Prix and the Mexico City Grand Prix, and has finished on the podium in all seven Grands Prix from Italy to Mexico City. His 149 points over the last seven rounds is the highest of any driver, 11 more than Antonelli. Leclerc is third over the same stretch with 90. McLaren, the 2025 champions, have taken two wins through Lando Norris, in Hungary and the Netherlands, and sit fourth on 365 constructors' points, 17 behind Red Bull Racing.
Who is on the 2027 grid
The leading line-ups look settled. Verstappen has extended his contract to the end of 2030, and Isack Hadjar stays alongside him in 2027. Russell has said he will remain at Mercedes in 2027, and Antonelli is understood to have been retained. Charles Leclerc has signed a multi-year extension with Ferrari, and Lewis Hamilton has said he has a contract for 2027. Norris and Oscar Piastri are under contract with McLaren.
The 2027 calendar and the Abu Dhabi finale
The 2027 season returns to a Bahrain opener on 12–14 March, followed by Saudi Arabia. Portugal and Türkiye rejoin the calendar, and the number of Sprint weekends rises from six to 10. Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi again hosts the finale, this time on 10–12 December and with its first Sprint. That brings the points available on the final weekend to 33: 25 for the Grand Prix and 8 for the Sprint. Yas Marina first hosted a race as the 2009 finale and is scheduled to close the season again in both 2026 and 2027. With more points on offer on the closing weekend, a close title race could well be decided there.
The Centre's model
The Centre used one transparent input and then applied its own judgement.
- History. From 2001 to 2025, the defending champion retained the title in 15 of 25 seasons (60%), and the drivers' title stayed with the same team in 17 of 25 (68%). In the Centre's judgement, teams that start a new rules cycle behind usually close part of the gap in its second year.
Applying this history, the Centre gives Mercedes drivers a combined 49%, below the 68% team base rate because Mercedes' late-season edge has narrowed. The Centre splits that 49% towards Antonelli, given his 9 wins against Russell's 3. The remaining 51% is spread according to late-2026 form and car strength. These weights are the Centre's judgement, not the direct output of the history.
Scenarios: the 2027 Drivers' Champion
Resolution rule: the driver classified as 2027 Formula 1 World Drivers' Champion in the official final classification after the last round of the 2027 season, currently the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on 12 December 2027. A tie on points is settled under the sport's own rules. Later changes, appeals or reclassifications after that classification do not count. If a named driver does not compete in 2027, his band resolves as not won. If the 2027 season is not completed by 31 March 2028, the forecast is withdrawn. The five bands are mutually exclusive and cover every outcome. Probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates. The forecast is scored with the multi-category Brier score.
Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli is the 2026 champion, having clinched the title in Mexico City with four rounds to spare, and has 9 wins in 19 rounds. He drives for the team that leads the constructors' standings by 126 points. Drivers' champions retained the title in 60% of seasons from 2001 to 2025. The Centre sets his weight well below that rate because his margin over the field has narrowed in the second half: he scored 138 points in the last seven rounds against Verstappen's 149. He also shares the same car with a race-winning team-mate.
Max Verstappen
Verstappen has the strongest recent form, with three wins, including Mexico City, and seven straight podiums from Italy to Mexico City, and he is a four-time champion. His team is third in the constructors' standings, 17 points ahead of McLaren and 248 points behind Mercedes, so a title would need Red Bull Racing to keep closing the gap over the winter. The weight reflects that late surge and his record of converting a competitive car into titles.
George Russell
Russell has the same car as Antonelli and three wins this season. However, he scored 67 points in the last seven rounds against Antonelli's 138, and he has had three non-scoring rounds. The Centre gives him about a quarter of Mercedes' combined 49%, reflecting the gap inside the team in 2026.
Charles Leclerc
Leclerc is the third-highest scorer over the last seven rounds, with 90 points, and Ferrari is second in the constructors' standings. His 2026 season included a win at Silverstone but also three non-scoring rounds. The weight allows for a Ferrari step forward in the second year of the rules.
Any other driver
This band covers Hamilton (259 points, one win), the 2025 champion Norris (221 points, two wins), Piastri, Hadjar and the rest of the grid. McLaren is fourth in the constructors' standings, 17 points behind Red Bull Racing, and the 2025 title shows the team can produce a championship car. The band is large because no single one of these drivers is strong enough for a band of his own, but together they are a real possibility.
What to watch
- The 2026 run-in: with the title settled, the four remaining rounds show whether Verstappen's late form continues to the Abu Dhabi finale on 4–6 December 2026.
- Winter development: pre-season testing in Bahrain from 24–27 February 2027 gives the first read on whether Red Bull Racing, Ferrari or McLaren have closed the gap to Mercedes.
- The opening rounds: Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, plus the early Sprint weekends in Bahrain, Australia and Japan.
- Driver line-ups: any confirmation of Antonelli's contract and any late changes at the top teams.
- The Abu Dhabi finale: with 33 points available at Yas Marina Circuit, a close title race could be settled on the final weekend.
Figures as of 2 November 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.