Key figures (as of 1 November 2026)
| World FDI inflows, 2025 (annual report, July 2026) | US$1,624 billion, up 6% from 2024 |
| World FDI inflows, 2024, as revised in the July 2026 report | US$1,532 billion |
| World FDI inflows, 2024, as first published (annual report, June 2025) | US$1,509 billion |
| World FDI inflows, first half of 2026 (trends monitor, October 2026) | US$1,082 billion, up 37% from the average half-year level of 2025 |
| Developed economies, first half of 2026 (trends monitor) | US$596 billion, up 74% from the average half-year level of 2025 |
| Developing economies, first half of 2026 (trends monitor) | US$486 billion, up 8% from the average half-year level of 2025 |
| Cross-border mergers and acquisitions, first nine months of 2026 (trends monitor) | US$494 billion in value, up 57% on an annualised basis compared with 2025; number of deals down 23% |
| United Arab Emirates, 2025 (annual report) | Inflows of about US$48 billion, up from about US$46 billion in 2024; ninth among the top 20 home economies for outward investment |
A recovery in 2025
The agency's July 2026 report puts world FDI inflows at US$1,624 billion in 2025, up 6% from a revised US$1,532 billion in 2024. Inflows to developed economies rose by 11%, from US$649 billion to US$723 billion, led by Europe. Inflows to developing economies rose by 2%, from US$883 billion to US$901 billion. Developing Asia remained the largest recipient region, with US$644 billion.
The report describes the recovery as fragile and uneven. Growth was concentrated in a small number of large host economies and in capital- and technology-intensive sectors, especially digital infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors and some energy activities. The world's top 20 host economies received more than 80% of global inflows.
First-published figures and revisions
The agency often revises earlier years as countries update their statistics, and the revisions can be large. The figure for 2023 was first published at US$1,332 billion in 2024, revised to US$1,455 billion in 2025 and to US$1,321 billion in 2026. The figure for 2022 was first published at US$1,295 billion in 2023 and stood at US$1,437 billion in the 2026 report, up 11%. The figure for 2024 was first published at US$1,509 billion in 2025 and revised to US$1,532 billion in 2026, up 2%. Changes are on the Centre's own calculation. This study counts only the first-published figure for 2026, so later revisions do not change the result.
Conduit flows
Headline totals can swing with financial flows that pass through a few economies on their way to other destinations. These conduit flows can add to or subtract from the world total without matching changes in factories, offices or other productive investment. The agency reports that conduit flows through major financial centres and investment hubs subtracted about US$40 billion from the 2025 total, compared with about US$70 billion in 2024. Excluding conduit flows through major European financial centres, world FDI rose by 4% in 2025, from 2024.
The same pattern shaped 2024. In October 2024 the agency's trends monitor showed first-half inflows up 25% from the average half-year level of 2023 on the headline measure, but up only 1% when flows through European conduit economies were excluded. The full-year figure first published in June 2025 was up 4% from 2023.
Where 2026 stands
The agency's October 2026 trends monitor estimates world FDI inflows of US$1,082 billion in the first half of 2026, up 37% from the average half-year level of 2025. The rise was concentrated in developed economies, up 74%, and the agency attributes it almost entirely to fluctuations in flows through the Benelux countries, which act as a channel for conduit flows, and to a near-doubling of inflows to the United States. Inflows to developing economies rose by 8%, and every developing region saw an increase.
Other indicators point the other way. Announced greenfield projects fell by 15% in number and 10% in value, and international project finance deals fell by 11% in number, on the agency's annualised estimates for 2026 compared with 2025. The agency expects the investment environment to remain challenging for the rest of 2026, citing geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs, energy-price pressures and supply chain de-risking, while noting that high-value projects in digital infrastructure and other strategic sectors may sustain flows. It also notes that regional disruptions in the Middle East in 2026 have added cost and uncertainty for investors.
The United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates received about US$48 billion of FDI in 2025, up from about US$46 billion in 2024, according to the agency's annual report. The report notes that the country maintained a high level of inflows. It also ranked ninth among the world's top 20 home economies for outward investment in 2025, one of the leading outward investors.
What it means
World FDI looks set for a second year of growth on the headline measure, but the size of the rise depends heavily on volatile financial flows rather than new productive projects. On the Centre's estimates, the combined weight on US$1,950 billion or more is 64%, and the combined weight on less than US$1,950 billion is 36%. The combined weight on US$2,100 billion or more is 37%. The combined weight on less than US$1,650 billion, close to or below the 2025 level, is 6%.
Scenarios: world FDI inflows in 2026
These probabilities are the Centre's analytical estimates, reasoned from the figures above. Because the bands are ordered, the forecast is scored with both the multi-category Brier score and the ranked probability score.
The variable is the world total FDI inflows for all economies as defined in the report, including the European financial-hub economies, and excluding, as the report's world total does, the financial centres in the Caribbean and special-purpose entities in reporting countries, as first published in the annual report: that is, the UN trade and development agency's annual investment report, for calendar year 2026, in US$ billions. This is the same all-economies world total as the US$1,624 billion for 2025, and it includes flows through conduit economies. The variant that excludes conduit flows through European financial centres, such as the 4% growth figure for 2025, is context only and does not resolve the study. That report is usually published in June or July, so the result is expected in mid-2027. Only the first-published world total counts: later revisions do not change the result. The agency's January trends monitor gives an early estimate for the full year, but that estimate, and any other trends-monitor figure, is context only and never resolves the study. The figure is used in US$ billions rather than as a rounded headline such as one given in trillions. It is rounded to the nearest whole US$ billion, half up, once, so US$1,949.5 billion counts as US$1,950 billion. If the report gives a range rather than a single figure, the midpoint of the range counts, rounded the same way. The bands are half-open intervals and each edge falls in the higher band: exactly US$1,650 billion falls in band 2, exactly US$1,800 billion in band 3, exactly US$1,950 billion in band 4, exactly US$2,100 billion in band 5, exactly US$2,250 billion in band 6 and exactly US$2,400 billion in band 7.
If the annual report with the 2026 figure is not published by 31 December 2027, the study resolves on the world total FDI inflows for 2026 for all economies, on the same definition, in the agency's official data portal as shown on 31 December 2027, rounded the same way. The January trends monitor is not a fallback. If the agency or its annual report is renamed, merged or replaced, the study resolves on the successor body's or successor report's first-published world total FDI inflows for 2026 for all economies, on the same definition. If neither the report figure nor the data portal value exists by 31 March 2028, the study is withdrawn.
How the band figures are worked out. The trends monitor put 2025 world inflows at US$1,580 billion on its own narrower basis, against US$1,624 billion in the annual report. On the Centre's own calculation, the report figure was 1.028 times the monitor figure. For each band edge, the Centre divides the edge by 1.028 and subtracts the first-half monitor estimate of US$1,082 billion, giving the second-half inflows on the monitor's basis that the edge implies. For example, US$1,950 billion divided by 1.028, minus US$1,082 billion, gives about US$815 billion. All implied second-half figures below are on the Centre's own calculation and are rounded to the nearest US$5 billion.
Sharp reversal: below US$1,650 billion
This band means 2026 ends little changed from the 2025 level of US$1,624 billion or lower. On the Centre's own calculation, allowing for the gap between the monitor and the report in 2025, it would need second-half inflows of less than about US$525 billion on the monitor's basis, just under half the first-half level. That would take a large reversal of conduit flows, or big downward revisions to the first half. The weight is low.
Strong reversal: US$1,650 billion to below US$1,800 billion
This band would follow if much of the first-half surge through conduit economies unwinds in the second half, as the agency's caution about the rest of the year allows. It needs second-half inflows of about US$525 billion to US$670 billion on the monitor's basis, on the Centre's own calculation. The weight is modest.
Partial fade: US$1,800 billion to below US$1,950 billion
This band covers a second half of about US$670 billion to US$815 billion on the monitor's basis, on the Centre's own calculation, with the top of the range slightly above the 2025 half-year average on the monitor's basis, about US$790 billion (US$1,580 billion divided by two) on the Centre's own calculation. It would follow if falling project announcements and regional disruptions weigh on flows while large deals continue. The weight is solid.
Steady second half: US$1,950 billion to below US$2,100 billion
This band covers a second half of about US$815 billion to US$960 billion on the monitor's basis, on the Centre's own calculation, near or somewhat above the 2025 half-year average. It is consistent with flows easing from the first-half pace without a sharp reversal. It is the most likely band.
Firm growth: US$2,100 billion to below US$2,250 billion
This band needs a second half of about US$960 billion to US$1,105 billion on the monitor's basis, on the Centre's own calculation, close to the first-half pace. Applying the 2024 and 2025 gaps between the first-published figure and double the first-half estimate gives about US$2,020 billion to US$2,385 billion, on the Centre's own calculation, so a figure in this range is plausible. The weight is solid.
Strong growth: US$2,250 billion to below US$2,400 billion
This band needs a second half of about US$1,105 billion to US$1,255 billion on the monitor's basis, on the Centre's own calculation, matching or exceeding the first half, with conduit flows and large deals in the United States staying high. It would also follow if upward revisions lift the first-half estimate. The weight is modest.
Surge: US$2,400 billion or more
This band needs second-half inflows of at least about US$1,255 billion on the monitor's basis, on the Centre's own calculation, well above the first-half level. It would most likely need further very large financial flows through investment hubs. The weight is low. Why band 4 carries the most weight. Doubling the first-half monitor estimate of US$1,082 billion gives US$2,164 billion, on the Centre's own calculation. Past years show that a first-half figure is an uncertain guide. In 2024 the first-half monitor estimate was US$808 billion and the first-published annual figure was US$1,509 billion, about 7% below double the first-half estimate. In 2025 the first-half monitor estimate was US$737 billion and the first-published annual figure was US$1,624 billion, about 10% above double the first-half estimate. Both comparisons are on the Centre's own calculation. The first-half rise in 2026 rests heavily on conduit flows, which can reverse, and project announcements are falling. The Centre therefore centres its weights a little below the simple doubling, around US$2,000 billion, with wide bands on both sides.
What to watch
- The January trends monitor: the agency's first estimate for the full year 2026, usually published in January.
- Conduit flows: quarterly FDI figures for the Benelux countries and other investment hubs in the second half of 2026.
- United States inflows: whether the near-doubling seen in the first half of 2026 continues.
- Project announcements: greenfield projects, international project finance and cross-border deal numbers, which point to underlying investment activity.
- Regional disruptions: the effect of 2026 disruptions in the Middle East on costs and investment plans.
Figures as of 1 November 2026. Probabilities are analytical estimates by the Ghaf Centre for Studies & Research.